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Vietnam's commodity export forecast for 2024 

 Monday, September 30,2024

AsemconnectVietnam - Since the beginning of the year, Vietnam's commodity exports have continued to recover. It is forecasted that the total export turnover this year could set a historic milestone of 400 billion USD.

Exports in the first 8 months of the year achieved many positive results
In the past 8 months, Vietnam's import and export activities have achieved many positive results, in which major markets such as the United States, EU, Japan, and South Korea all had high growth. It is forecasted that in the last months of the year, businesses will take advantage of market opportunities to boost consumption of goods, thereby contributing to the overall growth of the economy.
Vietnam's key export items and strong growth in the first 8 months of 2024
In the 8 months, there were 30 items with export turnover of over 1 billion USD, accounting for 92.3% of total export turnover (there were 6 export items with over 10 billion USD, accounting for 62.6%). Exports grew strongly and evenly in all three groups of goods. The agricultural products group has maintained its growth momentum from 2023 to present, with the total export turnover of this group initially reaching 25.19 billion USD, an increase of 20.7% over the same period of 2023, accounting for 9.5% of the country's total export turnover. Due to the increase in export prices, the export turnover of most items in this group achieved high double-digit growth rates compared to the same period last year, such as coffee increased by 36%; rice increased by 21.7%; tea of all kinds increased by 33%; vegetables and fruits increased by 31%; cashew nuts increased by 23%; pepper increased by 44.9%.
According to the latest preliminary statistics of the General Department of Customs, as of September 15, 2024, Vietnam's total export value reached 279.38 billion USD, an increase of 14.8%, equivalent to an increase of 35.98 billion USD over the same period in 2023. Of which, some groups of goods increased such as: computers, electronic products and components increased by 10.43 billion USD, equivalent to an increase of 27.1%; machinery, equipment, tools and spare parts increased by 5.99 billion USD, equivalent to an increase of 20.7%; phones of all kinds and components increased by 2.66 billion USD, equivalent to an increase of 7.3%; wood and wood products increased by 1.89 billion USD, equivalent to an increase of 21%... compared to the same period in 2023.
The export turnover of the processed and manufactured industrial goods group reached nearly 225 billion USD, accounting for nearly 85% of the total export turnover and increasing by 15.8% compared to the same period last year. Many product groups achieved high growth rates, including key export items such as: cameras, camcorders and components increased by 40.4%; computers, electronic products and components increased by 28%; plastic products increased by 31%; wood and wood products increased by 21.8%; iron and steel of all kinds increased by 11.8%; machinery, equipment, tools, and other spare parts increased by 22.5%; textiles and garments increased by 7.3%; footwear of all kinds increased by 12.7%; phones of all kinds and components increased by 11.5%...
Export turnover of the mineral fuel group reached 2.78 billion USD, slightly up compared to the same period in 2023 (up by 0.8%).
According to statistics, the economy accelerated in the first half of 2024 by 6% compared to the growth of 5% in the first half of 2023 thanks to the recovery in exports of processed and manufactured goods. The imports and exports of goods increased faster than forecast for the first half of 2024 thanks to stronger external demand, in which exports and imports increased by 16.9% and 17% respectively compared to the same period last year. The trade growth has also contributed to the gradual recovery of domestic demand. Export-related services (transportation and warehousing) benefited from the recovery in goods exports. Credit growth has improved after a period of very slow growth in early 2024 (as of June 2024, reaching 13.5% compared to the same period last year), mainly thanks to improved export activities, industrial production, processing and manufacturing, trade and transportation.
Vietnam aims for sustainable exports
According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, although export activities have achieved positive results, they still depend on a number of key markets, strongly affected by instability in the supply chain, regional and global logistics activities. Although import and export of goods achieved high growth results in the first 8 months of 2024, it was mainly due to the relatively low growth of the same period last year; at the same time, this growth rate is lower than the growth rate of the same period in years before the Covid-19 pandemic. The sharp increase in export prices of some agricultural products such as rice, pepper, coffee, etc., although helping to increase export value, poses a potential risk of disrupting supply sources due to the low professionalism of businesses and suppliers.
Moreover, Vietnam's key export products to major markets such as the EU, the United States, etc. are facing pressures from trade defense investigations, origin fraud, technical barriers related to the environment, sustainable development, and green transformation.
To increase exports, the Ministry of Industry and Trade said it will continue to focus on promoting export promotion activities for key markets, especially making the most of incentives brought by FTAs such as: CPTPP, EVFTA, RCEP, etc. Accelerate negotiations, signing, and ratification of FTAs, new economic linkages, first with Israel and the UAE, to diversify markets, supply chains, and boost exports. Support businesses in carrying out trade promotion activities in new markets and potential markets that individual businesses do not have the conditions to directly penetrate.
CK
Source: VITIC/ haiquanonline.com.vn

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