Orders remain stable, but profit pressure is growing.
According to Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, in June 2026, Vietnam exported approximately 150,000 tonnes of coffee, earning $552.6 million. In the first six months of this year, export reached approximately 1.1 million tonnes, generating $4.78 billion, a 9.7% increase in volume but a 14.4% decrease in value compared to the same period in 2025. Average export price is only about $4,435/tonne, a 22% decrease compared to the same period last year, reflecting adjustment trend of global coffee market after a period of high prices.
The three largest markets for Vietnamese coffee continue to be Germany, Italy and the United States, accounting for 14.1%, 7.9% and 6.9% of market share, respectively. However, export values to these markets all decreased, with Germany experiencing the sharpest decline at 21.7%. Conversely, China emerged as a bright spot, with export value increasing by 70.7%.
In an interview with Industry and Trade Newspaper regarding results of coffee exports in the first half of 2016, Mr. Thai Nhu Hiep, Chairman and General Director of Vinh Hiep Company, stated that the company had secured orders for entire year from the beginning, so sales were not a major concern. However, the biggest challenge currently comes from fluctuations in logistics costs, especially sea freight and geopolitical changes around the world.
"Fluctuations in transportation costs have impacted the company's profits, even though production and orders remain stable. However, we still maintain our 2026 revenue target at nearly the same level as last year, while production is expected to increase by about 20%. This is the result of years of preparation, not just the last few years," Mr. Hiep shared.
Domestically, after several sessions of decline, coffee prices have recovered to around 89,000-90,000 VND/kg, encouraging many farmers to sell and take profits. However, amount of coffee remaining in farmers is not large, so transactions remain quite cautious. Conversely, the global market continues to face pressure as Brazil is predicted to have a bumper crop. Robusta prices on the London exchange and Arabica prices on the New York exchange both fell in June, pushing export prices lower than the previous year.
According to Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa), global coffee production in 2025-2026 crop year could reach approximately 180 million bags, an increase of nearly 8 million bags compared to the previous crop year. With supply increasing faster than demand, downward price pressure is likely to continue in the coming months.
Vicofa also believes that achieving target of increasing coffee export value in 2026 will be very difficult due to sharp decline in export prices, while export volumes in the second half of the year are usually lower than in the first half. Besides market pressure, El Niño phenomenon could also cause heatwaves and droughts in many coffee-growing regions in Asia, affecting yields in the 2026-2027 crop year.
Sustainable development becomes the "ticket" to maintaining market share.
Mr. Thai Nhu Hiep stated that previously, many believed that coffee business only needed to focus on purchasing and exporting, without investing heavily in traceability or sustainable development. However, Vinh Hiep chose a different path more than 20 years ago. The company proactively invested in a traceability system, factory, production process, technology, human resources and logistics very early on. As a result, when requirements for deforestation prevention, traceability and sustainable development became mandatory in many markets, the company was not caught off guard.
According to Mr. Hiep, if businesses only started investing to meet new standards now, they would face immense financial and cost pressure. Meanwhile, those who prepared early will have a greater competitive advantage. Mr. Hiep also believes that the transition process cannot stop at mere propaganda but requires specific guidance tailored to each locality and each business. Each raw material region, such as Gia Lai and Dak Lak, has its own unique characteristics, so appropriate solutions are needed to help businesses gradually meet the requirements of each market. "Businesses cannot go it alone. For sustainable development, everyone must be in the same boat, sharing responsibility and adapting to the new demands of the market," Mr. Hiep emphasized.
In context of increasingly stringent regulations from importing markets regarding carbon emissions, deforestation, and traceability, many experts believe that regenerative agriculture will be a crucial direction to enhance competitiveness of the coffee industry. Previously, at workshop "Regenerative Agriculture - A Sustainable Direction for Vietnamese Agriculture," Ms. Hoang Thi Thu Huong, a senior project officer at GIZ, stated that coffee is one of the sectors identified as having great potential in implementing the Project on Reducing Emissions in Crop Production for the period 2025-2035, with a vision to 2050. Transition to regenerative agriculture will not only help the coffee industry meet the European Union's Regulation on Deforestation (EUDR) but also open up opportunities to participate in the carbon credit market, creating additional income for producers.
According to Mr. Nguyen Van Thiet, Manager of Rainforest Alliance office in Vietnam, this is the right time for Vietnamese coffee industry to transform itself in response to the increasingly demanding requirements of the international market. He believes that a regenerative farm not only produces products but also contributes to ecosystem restoration, biodiversity conservation, and building a harmonious relationship between humans and nature.
In context of increasingly fierce global competition and limited room for increasing production, experts believe that the advantage of Vietnamese coffee in the coming period will not lie in quantity but in quality, the ability to meet green standards, and the construction of a sustainable value chain. This is also considered the long-term direction for the coffee industry to maintain its position in the international market, while increasing added value for businesses and coffee growers.

Source: Vitic/ congthuong.vn