Exports increase in volume but face downward price pressure
According to a report by Ministry of Agriculture and Environment in response to Ministry of Finance for the Q2/2026 meeting of the Price Management Steering Committee, domestic rice production generally remained stable in the first half of the year.
As of the end of May 2026, Vietnam had planted approximately 2.93 million hectares of winter-spring rice, a decrease of 1.3% compared to the same period last year. However, productivity still improved slightly with the harvested area reaching approximately 2.2 million hectares, an increase of 0.04%, with a production of 15.2 million tonnes, an increase of 0.2% compared to the same period in 2025.
Overall, by June 2026, total rice cultivation area nationwide is estimated at 4.57 million hectares, a decrease of 3.7% compared to the same period. Of which, winter-spring rice crop reached 2.93 million hectares, while summer-autumn rice crop reached 1.64 million hectares, a decrease of 7.8% compared to the previous year. This trend reflects shrinking area in some localities due to increased input costs and changes in crop structure.
On export side, the first six months of 2026 recorded a bright spot as Vietnam exported approximately 5 million tonnes of rice, earning 2.36 billion USD. Compared to the same period in 2025, production increased by 5.7% but value decreased by 3.3%, due to a decrease in average export price to approximately US$473.6/tonne, a drop of 8.6%.
According to agricultural sector's assessment, decrease in export value while production increased indicates increasing price competition in international market. Major exporting countries continue to compete strongly on price amidst fluctuating global supply and unstable logistics costs.
In domestic market, rice prices in the first six months of the year were generally stable, with occasional localized increases and decreases depending on variety and region. Price of 5% broken rice increased sharply compared to the end of 2025, while some common rice varieties and 25% broken rice experienced slight fluctuations or decreases. This differentiation reflects the supply and demand characteristics of each segment and production region.
Positive outlook thanks to increased import demand
Ministry of Agriculture and Environment assesses that domestic rice market has remained relatively stable recently. After Winter-Spring crop, farmers in the Mekong Delta entered early stages of tending and harvesting Summer-Autumn crop, causing a slowdown in fresh rice trading and minimal price fluctuations.
However, a notable point is continued increase in demand for rice imports from major markets, especially in the Philippines, a country facing pressure to ensure food security amidst domestic production risks due to weather conditions. This is considered an important factor in maintaining demand for Vietnamese rice in coming period.
On the world market, according to FAO assessments, Asian rice prices in May and the second quarter of 2026 are expected to maintain an upward trend due to high input costs and tight supply in many major producing countries. Some markets, such as Thailand and Vietnam, have seen price increases due to rising import demand, while India maintains lower prices due to large inventories.
Furthermore, USDA has issued a noteworthy forecast suggesting that global rice consumption in 2026-2027 crop year could exceed production by approximately 3.36 million tonnes. Specifically, global production is expected to decrease while consumption continues to rise to record levels, leading to a risk of supply shortages and reliance on existing inventories to balance market.
Expert consider this development a significant supporting factor for recovery of world rice prices in medium and long term. In this context, major exporting countries, including Vietnam, are expected to benefit if they maintain stable supply capacity and product quality.
According to Vietnam Food Association, Vietnamese rice export prices have recently shown slight improvement in some varieties, reflecting stable demand from traditional markets. However, price competition remains as many major exporting countries continue to adjust their policies to maintain market share.
In context of a volatile global market, Vietnamese rice industry is assessed to be facing both opportunities and challenges. On one hand, increased import demand in Asian and African countries opens up greater export potential. On other hand, geopolitical fluctuations, logistics costs, and extreme weather remain unpredictable risk factors.
Ministry of Agriculture and Environment emphasizes the need to continue closely monitoring global supply and demand developments, especially the import policies of key markets and weather conditions in major producing countries. Proactively regulating production, improving rice quality and diversifying markets are considered key solutions to maintaining sustainable growth.
Experts also suggest that, given tendency of international prices to fluctuate in short-term cycles, businesses need to be more flexible in contract signing and improve market forecasting capabilities to take advantage of favorable price periods.

Source: Vitic/ congthuong.vn