Export growth; electronics and agricultural products continue to play a leading role
In the first months of 2026, Vietnam's trade activities took place against backdrop of a global economy that continued to face many uncertainties. Prolonged geopolitical conflicts in many regions, high logistics and financial costs and continued trend of trade protectionism in many major economies.
However, despite these difficulties, Vietnam's import and export activities still recorded positive results. By June 15, 2026, total import and export turnover of the whole country reached over 496 billion USD, an increase of 27.1% compared to the same period last year. Of which, export turnover reached 239.9 billion USD, an increase of over 21%; import turnover reached 256.7 billion USD, an increase of 33.1%.
In an interview with Industry and Trade Newspaper, Mr. Nguyen Anh Son - Director of Import-Export Department, Ministry of Industry and Trade, said that this is a very impressive growth rate, significantly exceeding targets set at the beginning of the year. This result shows resilience and adaptability of Vietnamese economy to fluctuations of international trade environment. Nevertheless, shift of trade balance to a deficit after many years of trade surplus also raises issues that need to be thoroughly considered.
Notably, majority of import increase does not come from consumer goods but is mainly concentrated in raw materials, components, machinery and equipment for production. This reflects trend of expanding capacity by domestic businesses as well as foreign investment.
In other words, current import activities are more about preparing for a new production cycle than a sign of declining economic competitiveness. Many experts see this strengthening of production base as a crucial foundation for accelerating exports in final months of the year.
Experts generally agree that the second half of 2026 will see prominent role of two main driving forces: electronics and agricultural products. Electronics sector will continue to lead export growth. Expansion of investments by many large technology corporations in Vietnam in recent times has led to a strong increase in demand for imported components and production equipment. As projects enter their peak production phase, the volume of exported goods is expected to increase accordingly.
This is also one of important reasons for the high increase in import turnover in the first months of the year. However, unlike consumer imports, this is an import stream serving future production and export.
Besides electronics, agricultural sector is expected to continue driving growth. According to experts, prices of many agricultural products on the international market are showing signs of recovery after a long period of sharp decline. This creates favorable conditions for export businesses to improve revenue and increase export value.
Mr. Nguyen Anh Son stated that one of major expectations for import-export sector in the second half of the year is that agricultural and aquatic production will continue to be bountiful, creating an abundant supply of goods for export. At the same time, Vietnamese businesses will participate more deeply in global value chains and supply chains, thereby enhancing the competitiveness and added value of Vietnamese goods.
Another supporting factor is prospect of cooling down global energy prices. In the first half of the year, high oil prices significantly increased fuel import costs, putting pressure on trade balance. If oil prices fall in final months of the year, as many international organizations predict, import pressure will be eased, contributing to an improvement in overall trade results.
From an industry perspective, Mr. Ngo Sy Hoai, Vice President and General Secretary of Vietnam Wood and Forest Products Association, believes that the second half of 2026 will continue to be a period of mixed opportunities and challenges for wood exports. Consumer demand in some major markets is showing signs of recovery, while Vietnamese businesses are becoming increasingly proactive in restructuring market and promoting digital transformation. These are positive factors supporting export activities of the wood industry in the coming period.
Similarly, textile and garment industry is also seeing new opportunities from recovery of consumer demand in many key markets.
Mr. Hoang Manh Cam, Chief of Board of Directors' Office of Vietnam Textile and Garment Group, shared with reporters from the Industry and Trade Newspaper that the United States remains a particularly important target market for Vietnamese textiles and garments due to its large consumer base, rapid fashion trend changes, and relatively good profit margins.
EU continues to be an attractive market, but it comes with increasingly high demands for green development, circular economy, and sustainability standards. Meanwhile, South Korea, Japan, the Middle East, the Halal market, and ASEAN are all considered noteworthy growth areas in the coming period.
Leveraging FTAs and enhancing adaptability
Besides positive signals, experts believe that Vietnamese exports still face many challenges from external environment. The United States is currently Vietnam's largest export market. Therefore, any changes in its trade policies could strongly impact many key industries. Requirements regarding origin of goods, intellectual property, technical standards and traceability are becoming increasingly stringent in many major markets. Simultaneously, there is a growing trend of trade defense measures such as anti-dumping, anti-subsidy, or control of illegal transshipment.
Mr. Ngo Sy Hoai believes that regulatory agencies need to continue supporting businesses in updating and meeting new international market regulations, especially those related to EUDR, anti-dumping, anti-circumvention and traceability.
According to experts, compliance capacity will become one of decisive factors in maintaining and expanding export markets in the future. In this context, network of free trade agreements continues to be considered one of Vietnam's greatest advantages.
According to Mr. Hoang Manh Cam, Vietnam currently has one of the widest networks of FTAs in the region, with 17 agreements currently in effect. This is a significant advantage compared to many countries that directly compete in textile and garment sector, as well as many other export industries.
However, to effectively utilize FTAs, businesses need to address issue of meeting rules of origin. For textile and garment industry specifically, the biggest bottleneck currently remains supply of raw materials, especially in the dyeing and finishing sector. "If we can improve domestic fabric production capacity and meet rules of origin requirements effectively, ability to utilize tariff preferences from FTAs will be significantly improved", Mr. Hoang Manh Cam emphasized.
Along with leveraging FTAs, trade promotion programs implemented by Ministry of Industry and Trade in recent years continue to play a crucial role in supporting businesses in finding partners, expanding markets and maintaining orders.
According to experts, in context of a volatile world, maintaining traditional markets while expanding export opportunities to new markets will be key to helping businesses enhance resilience and sustain sustainable growth.
For second half of 2026, Mr. Nguyen Anh Son expressed his expectation that geopolitical hotspots will gradually cool down, helping to stabilize global trade flows; reducing logistics, transportation, insurance, and international financial costs; thereby creating favorable conditions for import and export activities.
With decisive leadership of the Party and Government, support of ministries, sectors, industry associations and business community, Vietnam will achieve its import and export growth targets for 2026, striving to increase total trade turnover by 12-13%, exports by over 15%, and bringing total import and export turnover to over US$1 trillion. This is not only a goal regarding trade scale, but also a measure of adaptability, competitiveness and increasingly deep integration of Vietnamese economy in new development phase.

Source: Vitic/ congthuong.vn