By mid-April 2026, rice exports are expected to reach approximately US$1.3 billion.
According to data updated by Vietnam Food Association from the Customs Department, Vietnam's rice exports in the first half of April 2026 reached 530,991 tonnes, equivalent to a value of US$246.4 million, a decrease of 2.1% in volume and 8.7% in value compared to the same period last year.
By April 15, 2026, Vietnam had exported 2.8 million tonnes of rice, equivalent to a value of US$1.3 billion, a decrease of 1.3% in volume and 10.5% in value compared to the same period in 2025. The main reason for this was the 9.3% decrease in export rice prices compared to the same period, averaging only US$469 per tonne.
The large discrepancy between volume and export value indicates that the downward price trend is dominating the market. When export prices fall, businesses, even if they maintain production volume, find it difficult to sustain revenue and profits. In fact, according to reports from businesses, rice prices in the first quarter of the year decreased by about 10% compared to the same period last year.
This trend was also clearly observed in key export-oriented localities. In An Giang, rice export turnover in the first quarter reached only about 60 million USD, a decrease of 18.7% compared to the same period last year and nearly 20% lower than the projected growth scenario.
Despite being one of the world's leading rice exporting countries, Vietnam's rice industry still faces a familiar paradox: large production volume but disproportionately low added value. According to businesses, most of value of Vietnamese rice is currently created in foreign markets. Product brands often belong to importing partners, while the distribution system is beyond the control of domestic businesses. Export activities are mainly conducted using the FOB method, depending on intermediaries, making it difficult for businesses to proactively control prices.
As a result, despite exporting large volumes, Vietnam still does not have power to determine prices. When market fluctuates, businesses easily fall into a passive position. Mr. Nguyen Van Nhut, General Director of Hoang Nhat Minh Joint Stock Company, shared that in reality, many orders are short-term and dependent on price fluctuations. Accordingly, when prices fall, partners increase purchases; when prices rise, they are ready to stop transactions.
International context is significantly impacting Vietnam's rice export. According to the latest report from Vietnam Food Association, rice prices in major exporting countries are showing divergence. In India, price of 5% broken rice is around US$344/tonne; in Thailand around US$388/tonne; and in Pakistan around US$358/tonne. Although showing a slight weekly increase, these prices remain significantly lower than the same period last year.
Notably, Pakistan recorded a more than 12% decrease in exports in the first quarter, reflecting weakening demand in some markets. Meanwhile, China has resumed importing broken rice from India due to competitive prices, but increased transportation costs are reducing profits for exporters.
Weather factors are also becoming a major variable. Risk of El Niño returning is causing many countries to adjust their production and stockpiling strategies. Indonesia is increasing its reserves and implementing measures to protect domestic production, while also developing price stabilization policies. The Philippines plans to increase imports to approximately 4.8 million tons to ensure supply.
Conversely, Morocco is tightening imports by initiating a trade defense investigation into foreign rice. If restrictive measures are applied, this market will become more difficult to access for exporting countries, including Vietnam, even though the export volume to this market is not large.
Leveraging FTAs: Significant Potential
In current challenging context, free trade agreements (FTAs) are considered an important "gateway" to increase export value. Vietnam has currently participated in about 20 FTAs, with many markets offering very large preferential tariffs for rice.
Under EVFTA, European Union allocates a quota of 80,000 tonnes of rice per year with a 0% tariff rate. CPTPP allows many markets, such as Canada, to apply 0% tariffs, while UKVFTA allocates a quota of 13,000 tonnes of duty-free rice. However, amount of Vietnamese rice exported to these markets remains very limited, less than 5% of allocated quota. Conversely, exports are still concentrated in traditional markets such as the Philippines and Indonesia, where tariffs are still high and profit margins are low.
A positive sign is that Vietnam successfully exported nearly 400 tonnes of high-quality fragrant rice to the EU, demonstrating its ability to meet stringent quality and traceability standards. However, to expand scale, businesses need to invest more heavily in high-quality production and brand building.
In an interview with Industry and Trade Newspaper, Mr. Do Ha Nam, Chairman of Vietnam Food Association, noted that many businesses have already signed contracts for delivery in the second quarter of 2026, indicating expectations of short-term market improvement. However, 2026 will still be a challenging period for Vietnam's rice industry. In the first quarter of 2026 alone, rice export prices are expected to decrease by approximately 10% compared to the same period last year. The most significant bright spot for Vietnam's rice industry is the opportunity to expand into the African market, as several countries have expressed a need to import rice directly from Vietnam.
According to experts, in current context, shifting to the high-value segment is an inevitable trend. The project to develop 1 million hectares of high-quality, low-emission rice is expected to lay foundation for rice industry to increase its value and meet requirements of international market.
Along with support from relevant agencies in understanding FTAs, promoting brand building and diversifying markets, businesses also need to focus on meeting food safety and traceability criteria to maintain and enhance the position of Vietnamese rice.

Source: Vitic/ congthuong.vn