AsemconnectVietnam - Despite facing numerous pressures, Vietnam's pepper exports in 2026 are still projected to maintain positive growth momentum thanks to strong recovery in import demand from the US and China.

Pepper exports facing opportunities for acceleration
According to a report by the Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association (VPSA), in the first four months of 2026, total pepper and spice exports reached approximately 150,000 tonnes, with a value of about US$760 million, an increase of 20% in volume and 15% in value compared to the same period in 2025.
Of which, pepper alone reached approximately 96,000 tonnes, with a value of US$625 million, an increase of 30% in volume and 22% in value, especially exports to the US increased by about 40%, while exports to the Chinese market increased by over 200%.
VPSA forecasts that Vietnam's pepper exports in 2026 will maintain positive growth momentum, despite fluctuations in the international market. Accordingly, if the conflict in the Middle East continues, Vietnam's pepper export volume could be equivalent to or slightly decrease by about 3-5% compared to the 248,000 tonnes of 2025. However, export value is still expected to increase by 5-10% thanks to the sustained high price of pepper.
In a more positive scenario, if geopolitical tensions ease soon, pepper exports could grow more strongly, with volume increasing by about 5-10% and value increasing by over 10%. According to VPSA, the biggest driver of growth will come from the recovery of import demand in the US and China. In particular, the US market is projected to increase imports again by about 20-30% after a decline in 2025. Meanwhile, China, a market that had delayed imports for the past two years waiting for prices to fall, is showing signs of returning to strong buying.
Currently, China's pepper consumption is estimated at around 90,000-100,000 tonnes per year, while domestic production only reaches about 30,000 tonnes. The large gap between supply and demand is expected to force this market to increase imports in the near future. Many businesses in the industry believe that if demand from China recovers significantly, world pepper prices could continue to remain high in the second half of 2026.
Businesses still face many pressures
Despite positive export prospects, the Vietnamese pepper industry is still facing many difficulties. According to VPSA, importing markets are increasingly tightening requirements regarding pesticide residue levels, traceability, sustainability certification, and food safety standards. This is putting significant pressure on many export businesses and domestic raw material areas.
In addition, geopolitical conflicts and surcharges arising from maritime transport are impacting export activities; some shipments are currently stuck in the Middle East, especially at Jebel Ali port, while shipping companies have not yet found a suitable solution. Competition from pepper-producing countries such as Brazil and Cambodia is also becoming more intense.
Furthermore, businesses are facing difficulties in accessing capital due to rising interest rates and tightened credit. The process of certifying growing areas for some spice crops in many localities is also inconsistent, hindering traceability and meeting export requirements.
To support businesses, VPSA recommends further improving access to credit for agricultural businesses, especially small and medium-sized enterprises; and building a detailed statistical system of growing areas down to the commune level to serve management and policy planning. The association also proposes that the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment strengthen exchanges with Taiwan (China) to resolve obstacles regarding pepper shipments that have been flagged as Sudan IV.
Regarding the implementation of Order 280 of the General Administration of Customs of China, the Association proposes that the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment strengthen the mechanism for updating and exchanging information with the Chinese side in a proactive, regular, and timely manner regarding any changes made by export businesses. This synchronized and continuous updating is particularly important to ensure consistency between domestic data and data on China's registration system (CIFER), thereby minimizing risks such as false information warnings, registration number suspension, customs clearance bottlenecks, or export disruptions.
According to experts, in the context of continuously increasing global demand for spices, Vietnamese pepper still has significant potential for export expansion. However, to take advantage of this opportunity, businesses need to boost investment in clean, traceable raw material areas and improve their ability to meet increasingly stringent international standards.
CK
Source: VITIC/ congthuong.vn