AsemconnectVietnam - Climate change and the Net-Zero 2050 goal are putting Vietnam under pressure to restructure its growth. From an environmental risk, carbon is gradually becoming a quantifiable economic variable, with carbon credits emerging as a central tool for a low-emission economy.

According to the Wealth Management Vol. 10 Report – The Development of Carbon Credit Exchanges in Vietnam by SHS Research, Vietnam is facing a dual challenge: both mitigating economic losses due to climate change and building a carbon market as a component of green growth, linked to the Net-Zero 2050 goal.
Climate change: economic costs are no longer an assumption
Climate change is shifting from an environmental issue to a macroeconomic variable. For Vietnam, this risk is no longer a distant future but is already present in the core components of growth: labor productivity, infrastructure, agriculture, and people's livelihoods.
According to a report by SHS Research, Vietnam is among the countries most vulnerable to climate change. Salinity intrusion, droughts, landslides, and storms are directly damaging production and livelihoods; the total cost could reduce GDP by 3–5% annually. From an economic perspective, this is a recurring “climate cost” that could erode the foundation of growth if effective adaptation and emission reduction mechanisms are not in place.
Long-term simulations, cited from the World Bank, show an even greater impact in the medium and long term. In the RCP4.5 scenario, Vietnam's real GDP could be approximately 9.1% lower in the 2030s and up to 12.5% lower in 2050 compared to the baseline scenario. The causes stem from declining labor productivity, infrastructure damage, and spillover effects on agriculture. These factors not only slow growth but also threaten the goal of becoming a high-income country by 2045.
Notably, climate risks are not evenly distributed. Low-income groups and vulnerable areas such as the Mekong Delta are more severely impacted, particularly by saltwater intrusion and sea-level rise. Therefore, climate change is no longer just an environmental or growth issue, but a long-term socio-economic stability concern.
From Net-Zero commitment to carbon pricing mechanisms
In this context, the Net-Zero 2050 commitment is not only of environmental significance but is gradually becoming a key adjustment axis for economic policy. It is noteworthy that this process is not limited to administrative targets but is shifting towards market mechanisms.
According to the report, the carbon market is one of the key tools helping countries achieve their NDC targets and move towards Net-Zero at optimal cost. Essentially, this mechanism allows businesses with lower emission reduction costs to sell their surplus to businesses with higher costs, thereby forming a carbon price and creating economic incentives for the transition.
This is a crucial shift: from “regulation-based emission reduction” to “price-based emission reduction.” Carbon is no longer an external factor, but becomes a measurable, comparable, and optimized financial variable.
Globally, carbon pricing mechanisms now cover approximately 24% of greenhouse gas emissions and generated over $100 billion in revenue in 2024. Simultaneously, this market is expected to mobilize $10–40 billion by 2030 for emerging and developing economies, reflecting the increasingly prominent role of carbon in the global financial structure.
However, Vietnam's Net-Zero roadmap still has a significant gap. If existing policies are fully implemented, emission reductions could reach approximately 37% by 2030, equivalent to 85% of the NDC target. Even so, these policies only meet about 55% of the requirements to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 without technological breakthroughs.
In this context, energy transition plays a key role. According to the Power Development Plan VIII (PDP8), this plan alone could help reduce emissions by approximately 4.7% by 2030 and 15.3% by 2050 compared to the baseline scenario. This shows that Vietnam's Net-Zero path depends significantly on the speed of restructuring the energy system.
CBAM pressure and opportunities for domestic carbon pricing
While domestic efforts are being intensified, international standards are also creating increasingly evident pressure. Most notably is the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which makes carbon costs part of international trade.
According to the report, CBAM could reduce Vietnam's GDP by approximately US$100 million by 2030 and US$200 million by 2035. For the steel industry, production and exports could decrease by 0.8–3.7% by 2030 and 0.9–3.9% by 2035. In a scenario where domestic carbon pricing is implemented, the reduction could increase to 5.1–7.5%, but simultaneously generate revenue of approximately US$1.2 billion by 2030 and US$1.9 billion by 2035.
These figures demonstrate that carbon pricing is not simply a compliance cost, but also a tool for reallocating resources. Without a domestic pricing mechanism, Vietnamese businesses risk being entirely priced externally. Conversely, if an effective carbon market is designed, this value can be retained and reinvested in the transition process.
From a long-term perspective, the question is no longer whether to participate in the carbon market, but rather what role to play in the value chain. The ability to price carbon domestically, therefore, will not only determine the cost of transition, but also shape Vietnam's position in the global green economy.
In this context, the ability to price carbon domestically will not only determine the cost of transition, but also shape Vietnam's position in the global green economy.
CK
Source: VITIC/tapchitaichinh.vn