Rice export prices decline, competition increases
In the first three months of 2026, Vietnam's rice exports showed a "mismatched" picture, with volume remaining almost unchanged but value declining significantly. Specifically, total volume of rice export reached 2.3 million tonnes, with a value of US$1.11 billion, a slight increase of 0.2% in volume but a decrease of 7.8% in value compared to the same period last year.
In March alone, rice export were estimated at 1 million tonnes with a value of US$516.5 million. Average export price of rice was only about US$480.1/tonne, a decrease of 8%, reflecting downward pressure on market amidst abundant global supply.
Regarding markets, the Philippines continues to be the largest partner, accounting for 52.6% of market share and maintaining stable growth. China emerged as a bright spot, with export value increasing 2.5 times, while some traditional markets like Ghana and Ivory Coast saw sharp declines. This indicates an increasingly clear differentiation in structure of export markets.
Domestically, rice prices in Mekong Delta in March showed mixed trends. Fresh rice prices decreased due to abundant supply during the peak harvest season of the Winter-Spring crop, while dried rice and high-quality varieties saw slight increases. This trend reflects a gradual shift towards the high-value segment, rather than pure competition based on production volume.
Meanwhile, international rice prices also faced pressure as India and Thailand simultaneously adjusted their prices downwards. Vietnamese rice prices remained more stable, but increased transportation costs, especially on long-distance routes such as Africa, are eroding business profits.
According to Ministry of Industry and Trade, rice export in 2026 are facing many challenges, from geopolitical fluctuations increasing costs to fierce competition from major exporting countries such as India, Thailand and Pakistan. In addition, technical barriers, traceability requirements and increasingly stringent quality standards are also creating further pressure. Dependence on a few traditional markets also increases risks when import policies change.
Restructuring value chain, improving quality and reducing emissions are crucial.
Faced with these challenges, rice industry is shifting strongly towards a strategy of in-depth development. Instead of chasing production volume, the 2026 target has been adjusted to stabilize exports at 7-7.5 million tons, but increase the value to 4.5-5 billion USD.
In an interview with Industry and Trade Newspaper, Mr. Le Thanh Tung, Permanent Vice Chairman and General Secretary of Vietnam Rice Industry Association, said that Mekong Delta currently has about 1.5 million hectares of rice land, producing about 24 million tonnes per year, not only meeting domestic demand but also creating a large source of exports, helping Vietnam maintain its position as the world's third largest rice exporter. However, to increase value, it is necessary to reorganize production along the value chain, starting with reducing input costs and controlling quality.
Project to cultivate 1 million hectares of high-quality, low-emission rice is being implemented to comprehensively restructure value chain. In particular, application of assessment tools such as Viricert helps control production process, creating a basis for granting certification of "green, low-emission Vietnamese rice", thereby enhancing its reputation in international market.
According to Mr. Tung, participation of farmers and cooperatives in supply chain with businesses is a key factor. When production is organized systematically, adheres to procedures and is linked to the market, rice not only has a higher value but also has opportunity to participate more deeply in high-end segments.
From a management perspective, Mr. Phung Duc Tien, Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Environment, said that agricultural sector is promoting application of science and technology and digital transformation. Currently, about 85-89% of area uses high-quality rice varieties, but in context of increasing competition, further improving quality is a mandatory requirement.
Research programs are focusing on short-day, high-yield rice varieties that are adaptable to climate change. Simultaneously, development of industry databases, promotion of digital transformation and expansion of emission reduction models are being implemented vigorously.
Notably, emission reduction target is not limited to 1 million hectares but will be expanded nationwide, aiming for a net-zero emission commitment by 2050. Farming practices such as the "3 reductions, 3 increases" model, rational fertilizer use, crop rotation and agricultural input stockpiling are also being applied to reduce costs and improve production efficiency. In addition, localities are strengthening linkages with businesses in procurement, storage and processing, gradually forming a sustainable rice ecosystem.
Regarding Ministry of Industry and Trade, on March 19, 2026, the Ministry issued Directive 08/CT-BCT on promoting rice production and export, implementing the Prime Minister's directive in Official Dispatch 21/CĐ-TTg. The directive requires that rice export management be closely linked to stabilizing domestic market, ensuring food security and enhancing efficiency and sustainability of the industry. Units from the central to local levels, associations and businesses are required to implement solutions synchronously, closely monitor the market and proactively respond to fluctuations.
Ministry of Industry and Trade also directed acceleration of market expansion, leveraging FTAs and strengthening trade promotion; while simultaneously tightening domestic market management, controlling quality and prices and improving risk management capacity of export businesses.
In context of a global market shifting from competition in terms of production volume to competition in terms of quality, environmental standards and traceability, restructuring rice industry is no longer an option but a mandatory requirement. In fact, despite facing many difficulties, agricultural sector maintained a growth rate of 3.58% in the first quarter of 2026, with export turnover reaching US$16.69 billion. This shows that there is still significant room for development if the rice industry takes advantage of transformation opportunities.
In long term, experts believe that three pillars should be prioritized: developing high-quality rice varieties; strengthening supply chain linkages; and building a national rice brand. When these factors are implemented synchronously, Vietnamese rice will not only maintain its market share but also increase its value, affirming its position in the global market.

Source: Vitic/ congthuong.vn