Falling prices drag down export value
According to Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, in March 2026, coffee export are estimated to reach 210,000 tonnes, equivalent to US$956.2 million. For the first quarter of 2026, coffee export reached 577,300 tonnes with a value of US$2.71 billion, an increase of 12.6% in volume but a decrease of 6.4% in value compared to the same period in 2025.
Main reason is sharp decline in average export price, which is only about US$4,696.8/tonne, 16.9% lower than the same period. This development clearly reflects downward trend in global coffee market as supply improves, especially from Brazil, while demand does not increase proportionally.
Regarding markets, Germany, Italy and Spain continue to be the three largest consuming partners of Vietnamese coffee, with market shares of 16.4%, 8.6% and 7.6% respectively. Export to Germany and Spain maintained growth, while those to Italy declined. Notably, China emerged as the fastest-growing market, doubling compared to the same period last year, while the Philippines experienced a significant decline.
In domestic market, coffee prices in the Central Highlands decreased by 2,500-2,800 VND/kg in March. By the beginning of April, prices fluctuated around 88,700-89,300 VND/kg, indicating that downward trend continues to prevail. Trading was sluggish as farmers tended to hold onto their stock, waiting for prices to rise, while businesses had to be flexible with their supply, even importing from Brazil and Indonesia to ensure contract fulfillment.
On world market, coffee prices also fluctuated downwards. Robusta prices on London exchange fell sharply across many maturities, while Arabica prices in New York also weakened. Although geopolitical factors such as transportation disruptions may increase logistics costs, they are not enough to reverse price trend in context of global oversupply.
With declining coffee export prices, challenge of increasing added value for coffee industry has become more urgent than ever. Many experts believe that deep processing is no longer an option but a necessary direction.
At seminar "Solutions to promote deep processing to increase value of Vietnamese coffee," Mr. Nguyen Quang Binh, a coffee market expert, predicted that coffee prices could continue to fall by 20-30% in 2026. This makes increasing rate of deep processing a crucial solution to retain a higher added value.
According to Mr. Binh, if businesses can participate in supply chains of large corporations, they can sell large quantities at prices $300-400/tonne higher than market price. However, number of Vietnamese businesses meeting these standards is still very limited. Meanwhile, specialty coffee segment, which can bring in a higher value of $1,000-2,000/tonne, has not yet developed proportionally.
Improving quality and meeting "green" standards
In context of increasingly stringent markets, especially in large markets like EU, requirements for traceability, sustainable development, and environmental standards are becoming major obstacles.
Mr. Tran Van Cong, Vietnam's Agricultural Counselor to EU, said that EU is currently the world's largest coffee consumption and processing center, with import turnover of approximately US$26.33 billion per year. Vietnam is the second largest supplier, but is facing increasing pressure from "green" standards and transparency requirements.
In reality, Vietnamese coffee brands in high-end markets are still vague, lacking clear recognition of origin and quality. This is one of reasons why added value has not yet reached its full potential.
Regarding this issue, in an interview with a reporter from Industry and Trade Newspaper, Mr. Thai Nhu Hiep, Vice President of Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association, stated that despite frequent mentions of building corporate and product brands, Vietnam has yet to establish a national brand for Robusta coffee, the world's largest export commodity.
According to Mr. Hiep, main reason is lack of focused resources. Vietnam has many key industries, so it hasn't given sufficient priority to coffee, while other countries are usually steadfast in developing and protecting their flagship brands. Therefore, to build Vietnamese Robusta brand, it is necessary to proactively invest in and protect it early on, instead of waiting until the market is dominated.
Mr. Hiep emphasized that coffee is one of strategic commodities with high liquidity and stable global demand. Coffee prices depend on many factors such as supply, trade policies, geopolitical fluctuations, etc. However, compared to the past, price volatility has been somewhat "reduced" thanks to Vietnam's formation of a relatively complete production-export ecosystem. After more than 40 years of development, coffee industry has shifted from small-scale to large-scale production, making a significant contribution to economic growth and farmers' income.
Nevertheless, coffee market remains one of the most sensitive markets in the world, with a delicate balance between supply and demand. The industry faces numerous challenges such as climate change, natural disasters, geopolitical conflicts and global financial volatility. Even a single unusual event in major producing countries can cause significant fluctuations in coffee prices.
Furthermore, global consumption trends are changing rapidly, especially in major markets like China, India, Russia and the Middle East. Area of high-quality coffee plantations is shrinking, impacting supply. International regulations such as the EU's EUDR also impose stricter requirements on traceability and sustainable development, creating both pressure and opportunities to improve product quality.
Assessing outlook for 2025-2026 crop year, Mr. Hiep believes that despite increased production, prices will remain relatively stable, providing a basis for positive export expectations. However, market remains volatile due to the uncertainty surrounding trade policies between major economies such as the US, China and the Americas.
In long term, Vietnam's coffee export value in next crop year is projected to exceed $8 billion. However, $10 billion target is a significant challenge in current context, especially since policy changes from major markets could cause the industry to lose up to 20% of its export value.

Source: Vitic/ congthuong.vn