AsemconnectVietnam - After a period of positive growth in the first two months of the year, Vietnam's seafood exports in March of 2026 showed signs of slowing down, reflecting a more volatile global demand landscape.

However, overall in the first quarter of 2026, the industry maintained positive growth momentum, most notably driven by the leading role of the Chinese and Hong Kong markets.
In March of 2026, seafood exports reached approximately US$927 million, an increase of over 5% compared to the same period last year. Cumulative exports for the first quarter of this year reached US$2.64 billion, an increase of nearly 8%. This increase is significantly lower than the approximately 20% growth rate in the first two months of the year, indicating a slowdown in growth and its dependence on several key drivers.
China: the "Leverage" of growth
In the first quarter of 2026, China and Hong Kong remained the largest market for Vietnamese seafood, with export value reaching approximately US$764 million, an increase of nearly 45% compared to the same period last year. In March alone, exports to this market reached over US$250 million, an increase of over 50%.
This is not only the highest growth rate among key markets, but also a decisive factor helping the entire industry maintain positive growth amidst declines in many major markets such as the US, Japan, and South Korea.
The driving force from China in the first quarter mainly came from three factors:
Firstly, seasonal factors and consumption during the Lunar New Year. In 2026, the Lunar New Year falls in mid-February, leading to a sharp increase in demand for imported seafood – especially whole shrimp, live seafood, and high-end consumer products – from the end of the previous year and continuing into the beginning of the first quarter. This explains the surge in demand for items such as lobster and some shrimp in general.
Secondly, real demand remains positive in the mid-to-high-end segment. Import data shows that China continued to increase shrimp imports in the first two months of the year, with an increase of approximately 18%. Notably, in the live lobster segment, changes in tariffs and supply from Canada have created a "market gap," opening up clear opportunities for alternative suppliers, including Vietnam.
Thirdly, geographical advantages and the flexibility of the supply chain help Vietnamese businesses better capitalize on short-term market surges, especially during peak consumption periods.
However, it should be noted that the strong growth in the first quarter also had a temporary element. Part of the high export value reflects the demand for stockpiling and seasonal demand, rather than a long-term underlying growth trend. This necessitates a clear distinction between “seasonal growth” and “substantive growth” when assessing the outlook for the following months.
Spillover impact on export product structure
China's leading role clearly influenced the growth structure of the entire industry in the first quarter. In the shrimp group, growth mainly came from lobster – a high-value product heavily dependent on the Chinese market. Meanwhile, whiteleg shrimp – a key product in the US and EU markets – remained almost unchanged, indicating uneven recovery across segments.
For pangasius, China continued to be the largest consumer market, contributing to maintaining stable growth for this product amidst caution in other markets.
In other seafood groups, products such as crabs, shellfish, and mollusks also benefit from demand in Asian markets, with China playing a crucial role.
Notably, tilapia exports are emerging as a bright spot in the seafood industry. After exports reached approximately US$99 million in 2025 (a 141% increase compared to 2024), this growth momentum continues strongly in Q1 2026 with an estimated turnover of US$35 million, an increase of approximately 190% compared to the same period last year.
Risks from increased dependence
While providing short-term growth, heavy reliance on China also poses significant risks. First, the volatility of China's import policies and regulations can quickly and significantly impact trade flows. Changes in border controls, quality standards, or licensing schedules can cause short-term fluctuations in exports.
Second, the high seasonality of this market means demand is unstable year-round. After the peak period at the beginning of the year, imports may slow down in subsequent months, especially if domestic inventories increase.
Third, increasing competition, particularly from major suppliers like Ecuador in the competitive whole shrimp segment, is a key factor.
Therefore, while China is the main driver in the short term, rebalancing the market structure remains crucial to ensuring sustainable growth.
Other markets: have not yet generated significant momentum.
While exports to China have surged, other key markets have yet to show a clear recovery. The exports to the US in the first quarter fell by more than 10%, continuing to be the biggest bottleneck due to both demand factors and technical barriers such as MMPA/COA regulations and tariff barriers like anti-dumping duties on shrimp. The exports to Japan and South Korea also decreased by about 10%, reflecting a lack of significant improvement in consumer spending.
The exports to the EU remained almost flat, indicating stable but not strong enough demand to generate growth. However, this market still offers opportunities in the whitefish segment and products meeting sustainability standards.
On the positive side, markets such as ASEAN, Australia, Taiwan, and some emerging markets continue to grow, contributing to diversification of export options.
Second quarter forecast: China remains the dominant market, but growth will be more substantive
In the second quarter of 2026, China and Hong Kong are likely to remain the largest contributors to Vietnam's seafood export growth. However, the growth rate may slow down compared to the first quarter due to the end of the seasonal period.
The growth will depend more on actual consumer demand and the ability of Vietnamese businesses to maintain market share amidst increasing competition. Segments that cater to "reasonable price - convenience" demand may play a more important role than high-end, seasonal products.
For the entire industry, the exports in the second quarter are projected to continue positive growth, but with clear differentiation. Shrimp and pangasius remain the mainstays; China is the primary driver; while the US and some developed markets continue to be a restraining factor. Markets with logistical advantages (proximity to geography, convenient transportation) along with tariff advantages from FTA agreements will be the preferred choices for seafood businesses this year.
CK
Source: VITIC/vasep.com.vn