AsemconnectVietnam - In the first quarter of 2026, Vietnam GDP growth rate fell to 7.83%, the industrial output growth increased and inflation rate was highest in over 3 years. The country’s trade balance swung to deficit in March.

Vietnanm’s GDP growth rate in the first quarter of 2026
Vietnam’s GDP expanded 7.83% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, slowing from an 8.46% growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2025, as rising oil imports boosted inflation. The growth was broad-based, with all sectors posting solid gains, including industry and construction (8.92%), services (8.18%), and agriculture (3.58%).
On the expenditure side, exports rose 19.85%, while imports surged 24.27%, driven by the Middle East conflict, which pushed up oil prices. Final consumption climbed 8.45% year – on - year, while fixed investment grew by 7.18%. Last year, the country’s GDP advanced by 8.02%, the strongest performance since 2011. Vietnam is targeting annual economic growth of at least 10% through 2030, backed by investments in hundreds of new large-scale projects launched last year, worth an estimated USD 200 billion. Earlier, Kim Eng Tan, managing director for Asia sovereign ratings at S&P Global Ratings, said that Vietnam is expected to grow steadily over the next three years, with an annual growth forecast of 6.7%.
Vietnam trade balance swung to deficit in March of 2026
Vietnam’s trade balance reversed to a deficit of USD 0.67 billion in March of 2026 from a surplus of USD 1.70 billion in the same month a year earlier. Year-on-year, exports rose 20.1% to USD 46.44 billion while imports grew faster at 27.8% to USD 47.11 billion. For the first quarter, exports increased 19.1% to USD 122.93 billion, with sales of computers, electronics, and components surging over 40%, while phones and machinery rose 23.1% and 18.2%, respectively. Meanwhile, the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sector expanded 5.9%. The imports in the period jumped 27.0% to USD 126.57 billion, resulting in a cumulative trade deficit of USD 3.64 billion.
Vietnam inflation rate was highest in over 3 years
Vietnam’s annual inflation rate accelerated to 4.65% in March of 2026 from 3.35% in the previous month, marking the highest level since January of 2023 and the fastest March year-on-year CPI increase in the past five years. Upward price pressures were broad-based across most components, including food (4.72% vs 5.28% in February), beverages and tobacco (3.44% vs 3.03%), clothing, hats, and footwear (1.82% vs 1.87%), housing electricity, water, fuel and building materials (5.88% vs 5.60%), household equipment and goods (2.44% vs 2.23%), healthcare (1.0% vs 0.74%), transport (10.81% vs -3.19%), education (3.30% vs 3.21%), culture, entertainment and tourism (2.07% vs 2.31%), and other goods and services (4.01% vs 4.10%). At the same time, cost of communication remained broadly stable (-0.07% vs -0.24%). Core inflation rose to 3.96% in March from the prior 3.74%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased 1.23%, after 1.14% gain in February, the steepest pace since February of 2021.
Vietnam retail sales grew the most in 3 years
Retail sales in Vietnam rose 12.1% year-on-year in March of 2026, accelerating from 8.5% in the previous month and marking the fastest growth since March of 2023. The solid pickup was broad-based, led by retail goods (12.4% vs 8.8% in February) and accommodation and food services (13.9% vs 9.7%), while tourism-related activities remained strong (11.5%, though easing from 13.8%) and other services also improved (7.6% vs 4.4%). For the first three months of the year, retail trade increased 10.9% compared with the same period in 2025.
Vietnam industrial output growth quickens strongly
Vietnam’s industrial production rose 6.9% year-on-year in March of 2026, sharply picking up from an upwardly revised 0.6% gain in the previous month, driven by stronger activity as operations resumed after the Lunar New Year holiday. The output growth accelerated significantly in manufacturing (7.5% vs 1.2% in February) and water supply, waste management, and wastewater treatment (12.1% vs 1.0%). At the same time, activity rebounded in mining and quarrying (2.6% vs -4.0%) as well as in electricity and gas supply (4.6% vs -1.2%). On a monthly basis, industrial output surged 18.8%. For the first quarter of the year, industrial production rose 9.0% from the same period of 2025.
Vietnam tourist arrivals increased by 1.3% year – on – year in March of 2026
International arrivals to Vietnam rose 1.3% year-on-year to 2.08 million in March of 2026, marking a sharp slowdown from the 17.7% surge in the previous month. The sharp slowdown came amid rising fuel prices, prompting Vietnamese airlines to scale back operations. Visitors from Asia fell 6.6%, weighed by steep drops from China (-23.5%), South Korea (-5.3%), and Taiwan (-14.6%), despite gains from Japan (18.6%), Malaysia (34.7%), and Thailand (5.7%). By contrast, arrivals from America increased 18.9%, supported by the U.S. (18.5%) and Canada (27.0%), while European tourists jumped 34.7%, led by Russia (163.4%) alongside modest gains from the UK (3.0%), France (2.3%), and Germany (15.2%). Visitors from Australia rose 27.7%, and those from Africa grew 17.6%. For the first quarter as a whole, international arrivals climbed 12.4% year-on-year to 6.76 million.
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Source: VITIC/tradingeconomic.com