New goals for a new journey
2026 holds special significance as it is the first year of implementing socio-economic development plan for a period of 2026-2030, marking the beginning of a new growth cycle. In this context, foreign trade is expected to continue to play a leading role in economy.
According to Resolution No.01/NQ-CP, the Government aims for a growth rate of approximately 15-16% in total export turnover in 2026 compared to 2025. This is a high target, especially as global trade is projected to enter a period of slower growth.
Looking back at 2025, Vietnam's total import and export turnover reached US$930.1 billion, an increase of 18.2% compared to 2024; trade balance showed a surplus of US$20 billion, marking 10 consecutive years of trade surplus since 2016. These impressive figures create an important foundation, but also mean greater pressure for 2026.
According to economic experts, for many years, goods exports have maintained strong growth momentum, especially in processing and manufacturing industries. In January 2026 alone, export turnover reached US$43.19 billion, an increase of nearly 30% compared to the same period; processed industrial goods accounted for 89% of total turnover. This shows a positive shift in the structure of export goods.
However, behind these growth figures, there are still issues that need consideration. Foreign direct investment (FDI) sector continues to account for a large proportion of exports and trade surplus, while the domestic economic sector still has a trade deficit. If domestic production capacity, supporting industries, and technological content are not improved, value added retained domestically will struggle to break through;…
These realities show that challenge for 2026 is not just to increase turnover, but to improve quality of growth, increase localization rate, develop supporting industries, promote deep processing, build brands and gradually reduce dependence on a few markets.
Diversifying markets, strengthening domestic capacity
In import-export landscape, logistics is considered the "lifeblood" of the economy. In an interview with Industry and Trade Newspaper, Mr. Dao Trong Khoa - Vice President of the International Federation of Freight Forwarders Associations (FIATA) and President of Vietnam Logistics Business Association (VLA) - stated that a period from 2026 to 2035 will witness a strong shift in Vietnam's position and strength within global supply chain.
Vietnam is not only a manufacturing destination but is becoming a significant logistics market in the Asia-Pacific region. However, to seize this opportunity, domestic logistics businesses cannot simply "catch up" but need to take a step ahead, proactively participating more deeply in the supply chain, providing 3PL and 4PL services instead of just handling individual stages.
Business community proposed several key directions, including: institutional breakthroughs and trade facilitation; Promoting digitalization, a one-stop mechanism and risk management; investing in infrastructure based on a network-based approach, developing multimodal transport; forming free trade zones linked to seaports and airports; promoting digital transformation, green transformation, and developing high-quality human resources.
"If implemented synchronously, logistics will help reduce costs for export businesses and increase national competitiveness, contributing to realizing the 15-16% growth target in 2026", Mr. Dao Trong Khoa shared.
In reality, in January 2026, the United States continued to be Vietnam's largest export market, while China was its largest import market. This high concentration on a few markets requires a stronger diversification strategy.
Economic experts believe that requirement is to maintain traditional export "front," while simultaneously promoting market diversification and effectively utilizing Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). Along with that, it is necessary to improve effectiveness of trade promotion, develop national brands, boost B2B e-commerce and digital transformation to support small and medium-sized enterprises in accessing markets.
Associate Professor Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang - an expert in international economics and trade (senior lecturer at the Institute of International Trade and Economics, National Economics University) recommends continuing to explore high-value markets such as the US and EU in depth, proactively meeting green and organic standards. Although this may reduce profit margins in the short term, it is a condition for maintaining a long-term position.
Furthermore, populous markets like India, with their large population and high consumer demand, remain largely untapped. Strengthening economic diplomacy, promoting in-depth trade and exploring possibility of expanding bilateral cooperation will open up new growth opportunities.
Therefore, export strategy for coming period needs to be flexibly designed to maintain a presence in demanding but high-value markets; while simultaneously exploiting nearby markets, emerging markets and populous markets with significant potential.
Year of Horse (2026) marks a new chapter for Vietnam's foreign trade. Target of 15-16% growth in 2026 is a challenge, but also a driving force for restructuring market, enhancing domestic capacity and transforming growth model. This shift from focusing on export volume to focusing on quality, from expanding scale to increasing value and from processing to deeply participating in value chain will be path for import and export to continue being a solid pillar of economy.

Source: Vitic/ congthuong.vn