Export to the US remain stagnant, while exports to EU decline sharply.
According to statistics from Vietnam Customs, total export value of canned tuna from Vietnam in 2025 reached over $275 million, a decrease of 8% compared to 2024. Vietnamese canned tuna products are present in approximately 80 markets but a picture in 2025 shows a clear divergence: the US maintains a stable pace, while EU experiences a sharp decline, and some markets in the Middle East and North Africa accelerate.
In 2025 market structure, the United States continues to be the biggest pillar, with export value slightly higher than in 2024, reaching over $190 million. Conversely, EU saw a sharp decline of 22%, to approximately $57 million. Many European markets recorded significant decreases, such as Germany (down 27%), Finland (down 3%) and Romania (down 36%), reflecting competitive pressure and consumer demand that has not yet fully recovered uniformly. Context of high living costs, trend of "bargain hunting" and competition for supply from traditional canning countries may be factors causing recovery rate in EU to be slower than expected.
Notably, export to some Middle Eastern and North African markets increased dramatically, such as Libya (up 70%), Egypt (up 127%), and the UAE (up 302%), alongside other markets that saw strong growth despite their smaller size. This signals that Vietnamese businesses are striving to expand their distribution channels, diversify their customer base and reduce their dependence on traditional markets amidst increasingly fierce competition.
Globally, canned tuna remains a consumer product with relatively stable demand due to its convenience and suitability for retail channels. However, 2025 will see significant fluctuations in price of skipjack tuna raw materials – a factor directly impacting the cost and profit margins of canners.
Given intense competition in the canned food industry, fluctuating raw material prices may force businesses to constantly balance maintaining market share with profit margins, especially for private label orders or long-term contracts.
2026: Opportunities for market expansion but increased policy risks
Vietnam Association of Seafood Processing and Export (VASEP) assesses that, entering 2026, prospects for Vietnam's canned tuna export still have a chance of recovery but will strongly depend on policy variables and compliance costs.
"Currently, 'bottleneck' in domestic raw materials has been removed, thereby reducing pressure of raw material shortages for processing sector, especially for product groups with stable input demand such as canned tuna. However, Vietnamese tuna still faces many policy risks in various markets," a VASEP representative emphasized.
According to VASEP's assessment, export to the US market in 2026 are forecast to face many challenges and may stagnate. Reason is that from January 1, 2026, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) require all shipments to have a Certificate of Authenticity (COA) for seafood products meeting US export requirements. This certificate aims to verify species composition, methods and location of harvesting of products that are not subject to import restrictions under Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA).
This could increase risk of customs clearance delays/order cancellations if documentation and verification process are not synchronized. In addition, the US retaliatory tariffs also make it difficult for Vietnamese tuna products to compete with rival countries such as Thailand, Ecuador and Indonesia.
VASEP believes that global canned tuna market is projected to grow in medium term, creating room for Vietnamese businesses to expand their export markets. In particular, export of canned tuna to the Middle East and North Africa will continue their strong growth momentum in the UAE and neighboring regions, showing significant potential.

Source: Vitic/ congthuong.vn