A $930 billion base and new growth targets
After reaching $930.1 billion in 2025, Vietnam's import-export activities enter 2026 with the highest trade volume ever. According to data from General Statistics Office - Ministry of Finance, in 2025, merchandise export reached $475.04 billion, an increase of 17.0% compared to the previous year; merchandise import reached $455.01 billion, an increase of 19.4% compared to the previous year. Vietnam maintained a trade surplus for the 10th consecutive year.
Growth continues to be driven by processing and manufacturing industries, especially electronics, machinery and equipment, textiles, footwear and wood products. Expansion to 36 export markets exceeding $1 billion demonstrates increasingly broad market coverage and improved adaptability of businesses.
However, 2026 import-export outlook depends not only on scale but also on quality of growth. Global trade landscape is projected to slow down, protectionism is on the rise and technical and environmental barriers are becoming more stringent. This requires businesses to increase domestic value-added, proactively secure raw materials and reduce dependence on FDI sector.
Therefore, target of achieving over 15% export growth in 2026 is a significant challenge but entirely feasible if key markets continue to be effectively exploited.
US and EU: great potential but rules of the game are changing
According to General Statistics Office, regarding import and export market for goods in 2025, the US will be Vietnam's largest export market with a turnover of US$153.2 billion. China will be Vietnam's largest import market with a turnover of US$186.0 billion.
At recent Conference on Promoting Exports in 2026 organized by the Ministry of Industry and Trade, Mr. Nguyen Anh Son - Director of Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) said that total import and export turnover in 2025 reached US$930.1 billion, an increase of 18.2% compared to 2024; trade balance will have a surplus of approximately US$20 billion. This is 10th consecutive year that Vietnam has had a trade surplus since 2016, further affirming role of export as one of important drivers of economic growth.
However, alongside achievements, new challenges also exist. Global trading environment is changing rapidly and unpredictably. The world economy is recovering but remains fragile, fraught with risks from public debt, geopolitics and rising protectionist trends. Increased protectionism is undermining international trading system; increased use of tariffs by economies is making trading environment less predictable and unstable.
In 2025, trade surplus with the US is projected to reach $133.9 billion, a 28.2% increase year-on-year; trade surplus with the EU is $38.6 billion, a 10.1% increase; trade surplus with Japan is $2.1 billion, a 30.1% decrease; trade deficit with China is $115.6 billion, a 39.6% increase; trade deficit with South Korea is $31.6 billion, a 4.3% increase; and trade deficit with ASEAN is $14.2 billion, a 42.4% increase.
In 2026 market structure, the US is expected to continue to be Vietnam's largest export market, playing a crucial role as a "driving force" for electronics, textile, footwear and wood industries.
Outlook for the US in 2026 is considered positive as consumer demand gradually recovers and trend of supply chain shifts continues. However, trade protection risks, strict requirements on product origin and supply chain transparency continue to pose significant challenges.
For EU market, opportunities arise from effectively utilizing free trade agreements, especially in mid-range and high-end product categories. This is coupled with stringent requirements regarding environmental standards, traceability, emission reduction, and social responsibility within supply chain.
In context of increasingly fierce global competition, Vietnam's import and export prospects in 2026 depend on its ability to shift from processing to upgrading value chain, from extensive growth to sustainable development.
Maintaining the US market, expanding market share in the EU, and proactively adapting to "green standards" will be important pillars for import and export to continue playing a driving role in the economy's growth in 2026.

Source: Vitic/ congthuong.vn