AsemconnectVietnam - In the first two months of 2026, Vietnam's total merchandise import and export turnover reached US$155.7 billion, a 22.2% increase compared to the same period last year.

Export activity achieved fairly positive growth in the early months of the year. In the second quarter, exports may face more pressure as global trade continues to be affected by protectionist trends, US tariff policies, and especially the tense conflict situation in the Middle East.
In the first two months of 2026, Vietnam's total merchandise import and export turnover reached US$155.7 billion, a 22.2% increase compared to the same period last year. However, the merchandise trade balance reversed; while Vietnam had a trade surplus of US$1.77 billion in the same period last year, it shifted to a trade deficit of US$2.98 billion in the first two months of 2026.
Notably, from the end of February and beginning of March of 2026, hostilities in the Middle East erupted, affecting important maritime transport routes connecting Asia with Europe and North Africa via the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. This development increased transport risks, insurance costs, and international logistics expenses, thereby impacting global trade, including Vietnam's import and export activities.
Assessing the impact of the conflict in the Middle East on Vietnam's export turnover to the Middle East market in general and other markets in particular, Mr. Le Trung Hieu, Deputy Director of the Statistics Department (Ministry of Finance), said that tensions in this region could affect Vietnam's trade both directly and indirectly. For the Middle Eastern market, as hostilities escalate, cargo transportation may face difficulties due to increased security risks along key shipping routes, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to disruptions or restrictions on cargo flow.
Furthermore, tensions in the region also increase risks for international shipping routes through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, as many shipping lines have to adjust their routes, diverting to the Cape of Good Hope. This results in longer transit times and significantly increased transportation, insurance, and logistics costs.
These factors not only affected import and export activities between Vietnam and the Middle East but also impacted cargo routes to European, African, and even some routes to the US markets, potentially increasing delivery costs, affecting order fulfillment schedules, and putting considerable pressure on Vietnam's import and export growth.
In cases of extended delivery times, businesses may have to adjust their production, delivery, and inventory management plans to ensure timely order fulfillment.
For Vietnamese export businesses, these fluctuations can increase transportation costs and force them to proactively adjust their logistics plans. Industries with a large export share and heavy reliance on international supply chains, such as electronics, textiles, and footwear, may be significantly impacted by extended delivery times. Some agricultural and seafood products may also be affected by increased cold chain storage and transportation costs.
However, Mr. Le Trung Hieu believes that international trade generally adapts quite quickly. In the context of increased transportation risks, businesses and carriers can adjust shipping routes, delivery schedules, or logistics methods to limit supply chain disruptions and minimize the impact on import and export activities.
From another perspective, if the supply of certain agricultural and food products in the Middle East is disrupted in the short term, this could also be an opportunity for Vietnamese businesses to expand their market share in other markets.
Regarding imports, a representative from the General Statistics Office stated that the tensions in the Middle East could have certain impacts on Vietnam's import activities, not only from this region but also spreading to many other markets through the global supply chain.
Accordingly, logistics costs tend to increase as risks on important shipping routes such as the Middle East and the Red Sea increase, which could raise the import costs of some goods, especially raw materials for production; there is a possibility of short-term supply disruptions for some energy and raw materials; and there is a ripple effect on the international supply chain, affecting the delivery schedule of some raw materials for production.
Regarding the drivers of Vietnam's export growth, Mr. Le Trung Hieu stated that export activities achieved quite positive growth in the first months of the year.
Recently, the complex developments in the Middle East have increased transportation and energy costs, and temporarily disrupted some international shipping routes, potentially affecting import and export activities in the short term.
However, in the first quarter of 2026, merchandise exports are expected to maintain growth, although the increase may be lower than previously forecast.
For the second quarter of 2026, import and export activities face many pressures and potential risks, making forecasting difficult. Global trade continues to be affected by protectionist trends, US tariff policies, increasingly stringent green and technical standards, and especially geopolitical volatility and potentially rising logistics and energy costs due to prolonged tensions in the Middle East.
Notably, the US announcement of the possibility of applying a temporary tariff of approximately 15% for 150 days on Vietnamese imports, while lower than the previously expected 20%, could still create additional pressure on the export activities of many countries, including Vietnam.
However, according to Mr. Le Trung Hieu, Vietnam still has several favorable factors such as signed free trade agreements (FTAs), proactive diversification and expansion of export markets in recent years, and the increasingly improved production capacity of the processing and manufacturing industries.
Based on this, the representative of the General Statistics Office predicted that the export trend in the second quarter of 2026 may grow more cautiously than in the first quarter, due to the impact of uncertainties in international trade and increased logistics costs.
Vietnam's exports are likely to maintain growth in the coming period, but the growth rate may not be uniform across product groups and markets. In particular, the processing industry group, especially electronics, computers, components, and machinery, along with agricultural, forestry, and aquatic products, are assessed to have more positive prospects thanks to their ability to effectively utilize signed free trade agreements (FTAs) and international market demand.
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Source: VITIC/ thuehaiquan.tapchikinhtetaichinh.vn