AsemconnectVietnam - Domestic coffee prices extended losses on Thursday on both global exchanges as expectations of a bumper crop in Brazil weighed on the market, while domestic prices in Vietnam fell sharply to their lowest level since late December.

In Vietnam’s Central Highlands, the country’s main coffee-growing region, farmgate prices dropped to 91,600–92,800 dong ($3.52–$3.56) per kg, down 3,000–3,700 dong from the previous day, according to local traders.
Prices in Dak Nong fell by 3,000 dong to 92,800 dong per kg, while Dak Lak and Gia Lai both declined to 92,700 dong per kg. Lam Dong posted the steepest fall, dropping 3,700 dong to 91,600 dong per kg.
The Vietnamese dong was quoted at 26,044 per U.S. dollar, up 43 dong from the previous session.
On international markets, May robusta coffee futures on ICE London fell 3.75% ($139) to $3,553 per tonne at the close of trading on March 11. July robusta contracts declined 3.61% ($132) to $3,466 per tonne.
Meanwhile, May arabica futures on ICE New York dropped 2.83% (8.4 cents) to 287.4 cents per lb, while the July contract fell 2.71% (7.9 cents) to 282.2 cents per lb.
Traders said prices were pressured by improving crop prospects in Brazil after recent rainfall eased concerns about dry weather in the world’s largest coffee producer.
Technical indicators have also turned more negative after arabica futures failed to break resistance just above $3 per lb earlier this week.
Coffee prices were further weighed down by rising inventories. ICE arabica stocks increased to 564,626 bags as of March 10, the highest level in five months. Robusta inventories reached 4,721 lots on March 3, the highest in about 3½ months, before easing to 4,563 lots as of March 11.
Analysts Carlos Mera and Stephen Rannekleiv of Rabobank maintained their long-term outlook, saying the global coffee balance in the 2026–27 season could improve significantly as higher Brazilian arabica output creates a notable supply surplus.
The bank expects global coffee production to reach around 180 million bags, up 8 million bags from the 2025–26 season.
Consultancy StoneX forecasts Brazil’s total coffee output to rise 13.5% to 77 million bags, including 47.2 million bags of arabica, up sharply from 36.5 million bags this year.
If realised, the increase could push the global market into its first surplus after four consecutive years of deficit between 2021 and 2024, with supply and demand roughly balanced in 2025.
Brokerage Sucden Financial estimates Brazil could produce about 47.5 million bags of arabica and 25 million bags of robusta, bringing total output to around 72.5 million bags. Under this scenario, the global coffee market could see a surplus of 4.7–5.3 million bags, assuming favourable weather and sufficient robusta supply.
Despite the bearish outlook for future supply, both coffee futures markets remain in backwardation, where nearby contracts trade above later-dated ones.
Rabobank said the market is unlikely to shift back into contango before December 2026, when large volumes of coffee from Brazil’s next harvest begin reaching consumer markets.
Until then, the coffee market is expected to remain in a period of adjustment, with expectations of abundant future supply coexisting with still-tight availability in the short term.
For robusta, the situation remains more complex. Sucden noted that structural supply tightness persists at the start of 2026, although short-term flows have improved. Vietnam has already exported about 10 million bags from its new crop, with an additional 16 million bags potentially available for export in the coming months.
According to the latest data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, Vietnamese enterprises exported 180,000 tonnes of coffee in January 2026, earning $981 million.
Compared with the same month last year, coffee exports rose by 25.5% in volume and 26.6% in value.The average export price of coffee in January 2026 continued to edge up by 0.9%, reaching an estimated $5,450 per tonne.Meanwhile, in the domestic market, raw coffee beans were being purchased at prices ranging from approximately $3.85 to $3.89 per kilogram.By the end of January, coffee ranked second among agricultural products with the highest export value, trailing only wood and wood products.
In 2025, Vietnam’s total coffee export volume reached nearly 1.6 million tonnes, with export turnover hitting $8.92 billion, the highest level on record. Accordingly, export volume increased by 18.3%, while export value surged by 58.8% compared with 2024. Germany, Italy, and Spain remained Vietnam’s three largest coffee markets, accounting for market shares of 13.7%, 7.8%, and 7.1%, respectively. Compared with 2024, the value of coffee exports to Germany doubled in 2025, while shipments to Italy rose by 52.3% and to Spain by 41.5%. Among Vietnam’s 15 key markets, coffee export value grew most sharply in Mexico, posting a 13.1-fold increase.
Notably, beyond growth in volume and value, Vietnam’s coffee industry has also made progress in restructuring its product mix, moving toward greater diversity and reducing reliance on raw exports. Robusta coffee continued to play the dominant role in 2025, with export revenue reaching $6.59 billion, up 57.4% year on year and accounting for 73.8% of total coffee export turnover. Arabica coffee exports also performed strongly, generating nearly $550 million, a surge of 129.1%. Meanwhile, exports of processed coffee reached $1.78 billion, up 50.4% compared with 2024, driven by stronger investment in deep-processing technologies and expanded production of instant coffee, roasted and ground coffee, and other value-added products. At the same time, effective use of free trade agreements has allowed Vietnam’s processed coffee products to enjoy tariff preferences, expand market access, and enhance competitiveness in international markets.
Source: Vitic