AsemconnectVietnam - Vietnam's seafood exports started 2026 with an impressive 30.6% growth in January, reaching over $1.01 billion, compared to $774 million in the same period of 2025.

However, this growth is heavily influenced by technical and seasonal factors, while the outlook for February is being affected by the intertwined impact of the Lunar New Year holiday and fluctuations in US trade policies.
The growth in January of 2026 mainly stemed from two factors. First, January of 2025 coincided with the Lunar New Year holiday, significantly reducing the number of production and delivery days. This year, the Lunar New Year falls in February, allowing for more normal export activities in January. Second, the import demand in some markets increased sharply to serve the early year festivities. The exports to ASEAN increased by 47%, and to China and Hong Kong by 34%. Other major markets such as the EU, Japan, and South Korea all recorded increases of 24-29%.
By product, pangasius exports increased sharply by 59.2%, squid and octopus by 40.4%, other fish by 36.9%, and shrimp by 22.1%. The overall picture is quite positive, showing a recovery in demand in many regions after the volatile year of 2025.
However, amidst this bright picture, the US market stands out as a point of caution. The exports to the US in January reached $128.4 million, an increase of 20.2%. However, this increase is mainly due to the low base comparative factor. In fact, many businesses report that orders to the US are showing signs of stagnation amidst unstable market sentiment due to technical barriers and tariffs.
The most evident manifestation is the tuna industry. Although total tuna exports in January increased by 13.4%, exports to the US market alone decreased by 5.7%. If compared on a comparable number of working days between the two years, the actual decrease could be significantly higher. This reflects the caution of importers in the context of rapidly changing trade policies.
The focus of uncertainty lies in US tariff policy. Following the US Supreme Court ruling overturning previously applied global tariffs, the US shifted to applying a 15% tariff under a different legal basis. According to Reuters, the US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) stopped collecting tariffs under the IEEPA from 0:01 AM on February 24, 2026 (EST).
Compared to the 20% reciprocal tariff applied to Vietnamese goods from August of 2025, the 15% rate is lower. However, this also means that the tariff gap between Vietnam and countries that previously faced high tariffs, such as China or India, has narrowed, increasing competition in the US market. In this context, Vietnam's relative advantage is no longer as pronounced as before.
Besides tariffs, technical barriers are also increasing. From January 1, 2026, the US officially banned the import of seafood from fishing operations or countries not recognized as equivalent under the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA). Many shipments may require additional Certificates of Analysis (COA), increasing compliance costs and the risk of customs clearance delays. These technical requirements necessitate businesses reviewing their supply chains, especially those involved in marine fishing.
Meanwhile, on the demand side, the US market continues to show positive signs. Winter snowstorms have led to increased home consumption, boosting retail sales of seafood, especially frozen and canned goods. Lent 2026 is also triggering major promotional programs, contributing to supporting consumption. This shows that demand is not the main bottleneck; the issue lies in policy uncertainty and trade costs.
Entering February of 2026, seafood exports were unlikely to maintain the high growth rate seen in January. Firstly, the Lunar New Year holiday falling in February may reduce the number of production and delivery days. Secondly, the final results of the anti-dumping duties on shrimp (POR19), announced on February 17th, may impact the sentiment for signing new orders.
In the base scenario, February exports may increase slightly or at a low single-digit rate compared to the same period last year, depending on delivery progress and the US market's reaction after the 15% tariff framework is implemented. If the policy environment stabilizes soon, the positive impact may become more apparent from the second quarter. Conversely, if policy adjustments continue, businesses will face increased competitive pressure and higher compliance costs.
Overall, 2026 begins with positive signs of recovery, but the growth picture is not entirely uniform. The US market – one of the key markets – is entering a period of significant volatility in trade policy. In this context, rapid adaptation, compliance control, and market diversification will continue to be key factors in maintaining the growth momentum of Vietnam's seafood industry in the coming months.
CK
Source: VITIC/vasep.com.vn