Thailand expands export to the Middle East and North Africa
According to statistics, the US continues to be Thailand's largest tuna importer in 2025, accounting for 22% of the country's total tuna export value.
Along with the US, Thailand's tuna exports to Japan, the second largest market, also decreased by 2%, reaching nearly $206 million, accounting for 9%. Tuna export to Australia were also not much better, reaching only 173,032 (down 3%), accounting for 8%. Meanwhile, Thailand's tuna export to several countries in the Middle East and North Africa are increasing rapidly. Specifically, export to Libya increased by 22%, reaching $179 million, accounting for 6% of total export. Export to Egypt increased by 17%, reaching $121 million, accounting for 4%.
Conversely, export to Saudi Arabia decreased by 16%, reaching nearly $115 million. Export to the UAE decreased by 22%, reaching $92 million and to Israel decreased by 27%, reaching $85 million. Export to Chile saw an even sharper decline of 43%.
Currently, volume of canned tuna export to the Middle East and Africa accounts for 37% of Thailand's total export, reflecting trend of markets in this region prioritizing food with a long shelf life amidst geopolitical uncertainty.
Vietnam Association of Seafood Processing and Export (VASEP) assesses that, looking at the market trends, Thailand maintains a foundation in major markets (USA, Japan, Australia) but growth is not strong; Meanwhile, some markets experiencing sharp declines (Chile, Israel, UAE, etc.) have dragged down overall growth.
Opportunities for Vietnam to "pivot" to market and find competitive gaps
Vietnam Association of Seafood Processing and Export (VASEP) believes that 2025 was a difficult year for tuna industry in Vietnam, due to "headwinds" including regulations implementing provisions of Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA) of the US, high retaliatory tariffs, EU maintaining the IUU "yellow card" and a shortage of domestic catch.
Entering 2026, risks may increase if MMPA compliance is not "finalized" for each fishery/supply chain. Vietnam has requested the US to reconsider possibility of banning imports from 12 fisheries products that NOAA has rejected as "equivalent" starting in January 2026, including product groups such as tuna, squid, crab and lobster.
Meanwhile, Thailand has been recognized as equivalent by the US for all its fisheries products.
Thailand's export statistics show an important lesson: when traditional markets are growing slowly, they are focusing on markets with demand for convenient, long-lasting food. This opens up three opportunities for Vietnam in 2026.
Firstly, businesses need to capitalize on shift towards the Middle East and North Africa. Strong increase in imports from Libya and Egypt within Thailand's market basket in 2025 is a sign of real demand. Vietnam could pursue the following approaches: selecting suitable importers/distribution chains, developing tuna loin/fillet lines, canned tuna or developing its own brands tailored to the tastes of each country.
Secondly, compete on "standards and traceability" instead of just price. In context of increasing technical barriers, advantage will belong to those who can demonstrate: fishing records, evidence of reduced interaction with marine animals, traceability of raw materials and supply chain control. This is a point where, if Vietnam does well, it will create a competitive advantage even if it is not the largest processing country.
Thirdly, shift product structure to reduce dependence on a single market. In the past year, Vietnamese tuna industry faced a shortage of skipjack tuna for canning, forcing businesses to shift to loin to optimize costs. In 2026, the "shock mitigation" strategy could involve: increasing proportion of frozen tuna loin/meat, strengthening value-added products, and expanding market segments within the CPTPP or ASEAN blocs, while simultaneously protecting the US market.
Thailand is likely to maintain its leading position in tuna export, with a continued focus on canned/pouch products and markets with increasing demand for food reserves (Middle East – Africa).
"Vietnam's growth opportunities will largely depend on two 'necessary conditions': reducing risk of not meeting MMPA requirements for each industry/supply chain to avoid disruptions to the US; and stabilizing raw materials and shifting towards value-added, multi-market products. If these two points are addressed, Vietnam can capitalize on 'wave' of demand in emerging markets," the Vietnam Association of Seafood Processing and Export (VASEP) stated.

Source: Vitic/ congthuong.vn