Exports decline sharply in value despite high production volume.
2025 concludes with a familiar paradox for Vietnam's rice industry: export volume continues to be among the highest in the world, but revenue has significantly decreased. Against backdrop of falling global rice prices and increasingly fierce competition, sustainable growth of the rice industry faces many new challenges.
According to Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, in 2025 Vietnam exported approximately 7.9 million tonnes of rice, earning approximately US$4.1 billion, a decrease of 13.1% in volume and nearly 30% in value compared to 2024. Average export price of rice only reached about US$511/ton, a decrease of nearly 20%.
The Philippines continued to be Vietnam's largest rice consumer market, accounting for about 38-42% of export revenue. However, value of exports to this market has decreased sharply due to the country's adjustments to import policies and increased self-sufficiency in supply. Conversely, African markets such as Ghana and Ivory Coast recorded high growth, but their scale was still modest, not enough to offset the decline from traditional markets.
Notably, despite maintaining its position as the world's second-largest rice exporter, the sharp drop in export prices resulted in a loss of approximately US$1.5 billion for Vietnamese rice industry compared to the previous year.
2025 witnessed a clear downward trend in global rice prices. The FAO rice price index fell by nearly 20% year-on-year, at times reaching its lowest level since the end of 2021. Main reason was abundant supply, especially as major exporting countries such as India, Thailand, and Vietnam simultaneously increased production.
India, the world's largest rice exporter, exported 21.55 million tonnes of rice in 2025, an increase of nearly 20% compared to the previous year and approaching the record level of 22.3 million tons in 2022. Lifting of all export restrictions has made Indian rice more competitive, putting significant pressure on regional rivals.
Significantly improved rice flow from India has limited exports from Thailand and Vietnam, pushing rice prices in Asia to their lowest levels in almost a decade. FAO forecasts global rice production for the 2025-2026 crop year to reach a record 556.4 million tons, while consumption is only around 550.8 million tonnes, resulting in ending stocks of 215.6 million tonnes. India alone holds a record stock of over 57 million tonnes, further putting downward pressure on world prices.
Against this backdrop, major importing countries like the Philippines and Indonesia are implementing import restrictions to protect domestic production, intensifying competition among exporting nations.
Short-term pressure, long-term restructuring requirements
Low rice prices benefit consumers in price-sensitive markets, particularly in Africa. However, this reduces the income of farmers and export businesses in major producing countries in Asia, including Vietnam.
Given the prospect of continued pressure on global rice prices in 2026, Vietnam's rice industry faces urgent need to shift from increasing production to improving quality, reducing emissions, and increasing value. Implementation of the program to cultivate 1 million hectares of high-quality, low-emission rice, with the support of FAO, ADB, and international partners, is expected to lay the foundation for sustainable growth in 2026–2030 period.
In context of the rice industry facing increasing pressure from climate change, escalating input costs, and stringent consumer market demands, production-consumption linkages are no longer an option but a necessity.
Besides restructuring production, expanding and diversifying export markets is considered a strategic direction. In context of volatile global trade, new-generation free trade agreements are playing an increasingly important role in expanding export opportunities for developing countries. For Vietnam, Vietnam-Israel Free Trade Agreement (VIFTA), effective from the end of 2024, is expected to create a new impetus for rice exports.
According to industry experts, Israel is a medium-sized market with stable demand, almost entirely dependent on rice imports, with annual import values ranging from US$120 to US$150 million. Although Vietnam's rice market share currently only accounts for about 2-3%, this is still a positive sign, showing the potential to penetrate a market with high standards.
In an interview with Industry and Trade Newspaper, Mr. Le Thanh Tung, Permanent Vice Chairman and General Secretary of the Vietnam Rice Industry Association (VIETRISA), said that in context of some major export markets such as the Philippines and Indonesia gradually becoming self-sufficient in supply, diversifying markets is a strategic direction to maintain position and stabilize exports in the long term.
In fact, Vietnam has exported rice to approximately 150 countries in the past 5-7 years. This demonstrates the rice industry's flexible adaptability to market fluctuations. In the long term, green transformation, market diversification, and value chain upgrading are considered the inevitable path for Vietnamese rice to escape the vicious cycle of increasing volume, decreasing prices, and declining export value, moving towards more sustainable growth in the coming period.

Source: Vitic/ congthuong.vn