AsemconnectVietnam - Banks are reporting large profits in 2025, largely due to credit growth, especially in real estate. However, in 2026, with shrinking credit limits and a more challenging real estate market predicted by rising interest rates, banks are forced to shift their focus.

Shifting Towards Increasing Non-Interest Income
To date, more than half of banks have announced their 2025 business results with impressive profit figures. This growth is mainly due to the industry-wide credit growth in 2025 reaching over 19% - a record high in many years.
At VPBank, individual loans increased by 35%, reflecting the large capital demand of the economy and the good capital absorption capacity of target customers; Techcombank increased by 18.36% (driven by a 30.8% increase in personal loans); Nam A Bank and VietinBank both saw growth exceeding 16%...
However, in 2026, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) will begin slowing down credit growth, forcing commercial banks to restructure their operations if they want to maintain their growth rate.
Mr. Pham Hong Hai, General Director of OCB, said that the bank has long determined to reduce its dependence on credit, focusing on non-interest business as the main growth driver in the coming period. According to Mr. Hai, over-reliance on credit, especially real estate credit, for an extended period will expose banks to many risks, particularly bad debt and liquidity risks.
“The SBV's reduction in credit growth is necessary for the banking system. Growth based too heavily on credit can lead to systemic risks such as bad debt. When bad debt occurs, banks have to spend a lot of resources to handle the assets,” Mr. Hai said.
Experts warn that many banks rely too heavily on credit, especially real estate credit. In 2026, real estate credit will be curbed, not allowed to grow faster than the overall growth rate of the bank. This will cause difficulties for some banks.
In fact, at the end of 2025, when experts warned of overheating real estate credit and the State Bank of Vietnam signaled no further loosening of monetary policy, many banks proactively restructured their portfolios.
Mr. Alex Macaire, Head of Finance at Techcombank, stated that from the fourth quarter of 2025, the bank reduced the proportion of assets related to real estate. Currently, real estate accounts for 56% of Techcombank's corporate loan portfolio and 31% of its total loan portfolio. Meanwhile, at the same time, many other banks are moving in the opposite direction, increasing their exposure to the real estate sector, even quite significantly.
“We have a policy of diversification, aiming to bring the proportion of real estate to around 20-25% by 2030,” the Techcombank leader said.
To reduce dependence on credit, banks are boosting non-interest income. Some banks have achieved positive results. For example, LPBank has significantly shifted its income structure in 2025, with the proportion of non-interest income to total operating income (TOI) reaching 27%, a substantial improvement from 22% in 2024. This growth is driven by off-balance sheet debt recovery activities (up 151%) along with foreign exchange and securities trading (up 54%).
Similarly, at Nam A Bank, in 2025, the bank's total operating income is projected to increase by 27.4%, with non-interest income increasing more than 1.6 times, mainly due to a strong increase in the recovery of previously risk-managed loans.
Although the structural shift in banking operations has improved, credit still accounts for 70-80% of banks' revenue. Even in banks that have improved their non-interest income, this increase in non-interest income stems from the "root" element of credit, which is debt collection.
Looking ahead to 2025, according to economic experts, the growth model cannot shift immediately; that is, the economy this year will still grow based on credit. Banks will still rely on lending, especially real estate lending, because the ecosystem of many banks still depends on the real estate ecosystem of their major shareholders. However, the shift will certainly have to happen, although not overnight.
Expectations for new "golden egg-laying hens"
According to analysts, in 2026, the pressure to diversify operations and reduce dependence on credit will become even more intense for banks, given the risk of shrinking net interest margin (NIM). However, the advantage of diversification is currently skewed towards a few large banks, while smaller banks remain dependent on lending activities.
Recently, the leaders of Techcombank and TCBS announced that they have submitted applications for licenses to trade digital assets and produce gold bars, and are finalizing preparations to begin operations immediately upon receiving approval. Along with securities, bancassurance (a business cooperation model between banks and insurance companies), asset management, investment consulting, and foreign exchange trading, gold and digital assets are predicted to be the new "golden geese" for banks in the coming period.
In addition, traditional non-credit services will continue to develop, leveraging the benefits of digital banking, payment card fees, credit card fees, trust services, asset management consulting, income from securities investment, foreign exchange trading, etc.
Analysts from BIDV Securities Joint Stock Company (BSC) highly appreciate banks proactively diversifying revenue sources and boosting non-interest income through perfecting the financial group model, developing a service ecosystem, and gradually mastering the product value chain. This is considered an important direction to reduce dependence on traditional NIM and ensure sustainable growth in the context of rising capital costs.
According to forecasts, the profit growth rate of banks in the monitored portfolio will break through from 14% (in 2025) to over 20% in the 2026-2027 period. The core growth drivers for the banking sector in the coming period are the rise of retail banking, SMEs (small and medium-sized enterprises), and diversification of non-credit revenue sources.
Specifically in 2026, after-tax profit for the entire sector is expected to increase by 19.5%, supported by stable growth in interest income and a 9.6% increase in non-interest income. This figure further confirms the increasingly important role of the non-credit segment in the profit structure, as well as the trend of changing growth pillars for the banking industry in the coming period.
N.Nga
Source: VITIC/Tinnhanhchungkhoan