Market activity remained relatively cautious, but price fundamentals were underpinned by reduced paddy availability and expectations of improved demand after the Lunar New Year holiday.

Domestic rice prices strengthened during January, particularly for raw materials and by-products. According to data compiled by the Ministry of Industry and Trade’s Information Centre (VITIC) from Vietnam Rice sources, prices of IR504 raw rice rose to 7,750–7,900 dong per kg by late January, compared with 7,600–7,700 dong per kg at the beginning of the month. Prices of dry broken rice increased to 7,850–8,000 dong per kg from 7,500–7,600 dong per kg, while dry rice bran rose sharply to around 8,150 dong per kg from 6,500–6,650 dong per kg. By contrast, prices of IR504 finished rice remained unchanged at 9,500–9,700 dong per kg.

Traders said domestic prices were supported by the gradual decline in paddy supply as the main harvest in the Mekong Delta came to an end, while the new winter–spring crop had only just begun. Milling activity was steady but not aggressive, as buyers remained selective and closely monitored export demand.

Vietnam’s export rice prices were broadly steady in January 2026. Exporters quoted 5% broken rice at around USD360–365 per tonne, unchanged from late December levels. Market participants said firm domestic prices and cautious overseas buying limited room for discounts, even as global rice demand remained generally weak and competition intensified from other major exporters.

Rice export activity showed early signs of recovery at the start of the year. Preliminary data from Vietnam Customs indicated that rice exports in the first half of January 2026 surged by 64% year on year to 318,212 tonnes. Traders said shipments picked up after a slow end to 2025, helped by the fulfillment of contracts signed earlier and seasonal restocking demand from some importing countries.

For the full year 2025, Vietnam exported an estimated 8.06 million tonnes of rice, generating about USD4.10 billion in revenue. This represented a decline of 10.79% in volume and 27.57% in value compared with 2024. The sharper drop in export value relative to volume reflected lower average export prices in 2025, in line with broader global trends, as international rice prices softened amid ample supply from major producing countries.

The Philippines remained Vietnam’s largest rice export destination in 2025, importing about 3.21 million tonnes worth USD1.57 billion. This accounted for nearly 40% of Vietnam’s total rice export volume and value. However, shipments to the Philippines fell by 24.04% in volume and 39.77% in value from the previous year, as the country increased domestic production and diversified its import sources.

West African markets continued to play an increasingly important role. Exports to Ivory Coast reached about 1.06 million tonnes valued at USD478.26 million, accounting for 13.09% of total export volume and 11.65% of total value. Shipments to this market surged by 118.53% in volume and 67.48% in value year on year. Ghana was another key destination, with imports of about 919,214 tonnes worth USD513.94 million, up 50.03% in volume and 21.26% in value compared with 2024.

Exports to mainland China also rose sharply in 2025, reaching about 747,327 tonnes valued at USD373.82 million. This marked an increase of 162.03% in volume and 122.73% in value year on year, reflecting improved border trade conditions and stronger demand for Vietnamese rice in the Chinese market.

Several smaller markets recorded notable growth. Shipments to Chile rose by 136.23% in volume and 133.06% in value, while exports to Spain increased by 12.05% in volume and 1.79% in value. Algeria also recorded gains, with exports rising by 23.46% in volume and 71.55% in value.

By contrast, exports to a number of traditional markets declined. Shipments to Malaysia fell by 28.38% in volume and 43.70% in value, while exports to Singapore dropped by 7.45% in volume and 19.53% in value. Exports to Indonesia plunged sharply, totaling only 47,315 tonnes valued at USD21.63 million, down 96.24% in volume and 97.10% in value year on year, as Indonesia sharply reduced imports following a strong domestic harvest. Exports to Russia and Ukraine also declined significantly amid logistical and market challenges.

By trade agreement grouping, exports to markets under the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) reached about 4.74 million tonnes valued at USD2.35 billion in 2025, accounting for 58.82% of total volume and 57.18% of total value. However, shipments to this group fell by 29.67% in volume and 43.16% in value from 2024. Exports to Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) markets totaled about 705,463 tonnes valued at USD356.95 million, down 23.59% in volume and 37.07% in value.

Exports to the European Union under the EVFTA reached about 33,076 tonnes valued at USD25.16 million, rising by 11.67% in volume and 5.06% in value, supported by demand for fragrant and high-quality rice. In contrast, exports to the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) markets declined sharply.

Looking ahead, Vietnam is expected to export about 7.73 million tonnes of rice in 2026, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment. The ministry said the country’s rice production plan for 2026 would remain broadly stable, ensuring domestic food security while maintaining sufficient supply for exports.

After accounting for domestic consumption, seed use and feed demand, Vietnam’s marketable paddy output was estimated at about 15.46 million tonnes, equivalent to around 7.73 million tonnes of exportable rice. Export structure in 2026 is expected to continue shifting toward higher-quality and fragrant rice, with an estimated volume of about 5.8 million tonnes, accounting for roughly 75% of total exports. Glutinous rice was projected to account for about 10%, with the remainder used for processing.

Officials said the strategy aligned with global market trends, as importing countries increasingly prioritized quality, traceability and sustainability standards. Market participants said this structural shift could help support Vietnam’s rice prices over the medium term, even amid intensifying competition and subdued global demand.

T.Huong

Source: Vitic