Domestic inventories carried over from earlier years (2022 and 2023) have been fully depleted, with remaining stocks mainly originating from the last two years. Carry-over inventories into 2026 are estimated at around 40 thousand tonnes, more or less.

In Dak Lak province, pepper was purchased at VND148,500 per kg. In Dak Nong (Lam Dong province), buying prices were also recorded at VND148,500 per kg. In Gia Lai province, prices stood at VND148,000 per kg. Meanwhile, in Dong Nai, pepper was traded at VND148,000 per kg. In Ba Ria – Vung Tau (Ho Chi Minh City), prices were likewise quoted at VND148,000 per kg. In Binh Phuoc (Dong Nai province), pepper was purchased at VND147,500 per kg.

At the close of the most recent trading session, the International Pepper Community (IPC) listed black pepper Lampung (Indonesia) at USD6,591 per tonne, down 0.27%. Black pepper Brazil ASTA 570 was quoted at USD6,000 per tonne, down 1.67%, while black pepper Kuching (Malaysia) ASTA stood at USD9,000 per tonne. White pepper Muntok was priced at USD9,064 per tonne, down 0.26%, and white pepper Malaysia ASTA was quoted at USD12,000 per tonne.

Vietnamese black pepper was traded at USD6,400 per tonne for the 500 g/l grade and USD6,600 per tonne for the 550 g/l grade. White pepper prices reached USD9,150 per tonne. The IPC adjusted pepper prices downward for Indonesia and Brazil.

According to the Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association, global pepper production has continued to decline in recent years, indicating that maintaining pepper plantations in many producing countries has become increasingly difficult. This is due to increasingly extreme weather conditions, competition from alternative crops, and rising input costs for materials and labor, while pepper cultivation remains highly demanding.

Brazil is expected to remain the only bright spot, with expanding planted area and stable output, while most other major producing countries are experiencing declines. Vietnam’s pepper output in 2026 is forecast to fall by around 15–20% to approximately 165 thousand tonnes. As a result, global inventories are also expected to drop to their lowest levels in many years.

With pepper prices remaining high, demand in some markets has slowed, particularly in the United States, where reciprocal tariffs applied to most producing countries have reduced import volumes. Although the US has announced tariff exemptions, high prices are still expected to remain a bottleneck for stronger import growth in the coming period.

Vietnam’s value-added tax issue has been resolved following the government’s decision to abolish the tax, which is expected to provide additional momentum for exporters in the near term. Inventories from earlier years (2022 and 2023) have been exhausted, with remaining stocks mainly from the last two years and estimated carry-over into 2026 at around 40 thousand tonnes.

Vietnam’s harvest season is expected to begin in late February 2026 and last through the end of April. However, farmers are unlikely to sell aggressively, releasing only part of their output to cover harvesting costs and fertilizer expenses. The remainder is expected to be held back, as many farmers are financially secure thanks to stable high pepper prices over the past year, as well as income from other crops such as coffee and durian.

According to data from the General Department of Customs, Vietnam exported 246,132 tonnes of various types of pepper last year, with the average price nearing $6,750 per tonne - an increase of 28.3% compared to the previous year. This surge in unit price led to a 26.3% jump in export earnings, despite a slight 1.5% drop in export volume.

This marks the first time Vietnam’s pepper export revenue has surpassed the previous all-time high of nearly $1.43 billion set in 2016.

The United States, Germany, and India were Vietnam’s three largest pepper markets in 2025, accounting for 25.1%, 7.5%, and 4.8% of the total export value respectively.

In detail, Vietnam shipped 56,182 tonnes of pepper to the US, generating around $416.4 million in revenue. Notably, despite ongoing challenges related to countervailing duties, exports to this market still rose by 2.2% year-on-year, reaffirming the US as Vietnam’s top buyer.

Germany ranked second, importing 16,167 tonnes of pepper worth approximately $123.8 million - an impressive 31.2% increase in value over 2024.

India followed with 11,349 tonnes  imported, bringing in $79.9 million, marking a remarkable 54.5% year-on-year increase.

Currently, domestic pepper prices in Vietnam remain at their peak, ranging from 150,000 to 152,000 VND per kilogram. Prices are highest in Dak Lak and Lam Dong at 152,500 VND/kg, followed by Ho Chi Minh City at 151,500 VND/kg. In Gia Lai and Dong Nai, farmers are selling pepper at 151,000 VND/kg and 150,000 VND/kg, respectively.

On the international market, export prices for black pepper are holding steady between $6,600 and $6,800 per ton for the 500g/l and 550g/l varieties. White pepper is commanding even higher prices, currently at around $9,350 per ton.

Vietnam remains the world's leading pepper exporter. In December 2025, pepper-growing regions across the country began the new harvest season. However, the 2025–2026 crop is forecast to decline slightly due to adverse weather and storm-related disruptions.

Both domestic and export pepper prices are expected to rise further as global supply tightens.

T.Huong

Source: Vitic