Rice market is sluggish at the end of the year
Updates from Mekong Delta at end of December 2025 show a stagnant rice market with quiet end-of-season transactions. Prices for OM 18 rice fluctuated between 6,500 and 6,700 VND/kg; IR 50404 between 5,500 and 5,600 VND/kg; and Dai Thom 8 maintained at 6,500-6,700 VND/kg…
Localities such as Can Tho, Dong Thap, Vinh Long and Ca Mau recorded low rice supplies, weak purchasing demand and stable prices. Price of raw export rice for IR 504 was around 7,600-7,700 VND/kg; OM 5451 at 8,150-8,300 VND/kg; and finished IR 504 rice at 9,500-9,700 VND/kg, showing little change compared to the beginning of the month.
On export market, Vietnamese rice prices at the beginning of December were in the upper-medium range, but a slight downward trend emerged as global supply increased sharply. Fragrant rice with 5% broken grains recorded prices of 420-460 USD/tonne, Jasmine rice at 446-450 USD/tonne, the lowest levels since the end of November 2025.
As of December 15th, Vietnam's rice exports reached 7.67 million tonnes, worth 3.92 billion USD. Despite maintaining a good volume, value decreased sharply due to falling global prices. Indonesia's announcement of a temporary suspension of rice imports due to abundant domestic supply is not considered a major shock to Vietnam, as its market share in 2025 is insignificant.
However, this development clearly reflects a trend of traditional markets tightening imports to support domestic production, forcing rice exporters to expand into new markets and enhance competitiveness through quality, rather than solely relying on price.
In 2025, FAO Global Rice Price Index (FARPI) is projected to fall by nearly 20% compared to the previous year, the sharpest decline in many years. Indian 5% broken white rice, a high benchmark, will drop to $338 per ton, its lowest price in years. Thai and Vietnamese rice, while maintaining higher prices, will continue to face downward pressure due to a sharp increase in global supply and cautious buyers.
Period of 2025-2026 is considered one of the most unusually oversupplied seasons in decades. FAO forecasts world rice production at 556.4 million tonnes, with large beginning stocks pushing total supply to 767.2 million tonnes, the highest in history. India will dominate market, with production exceeding 150 million tonnes, sufficient to meet domestic consumption and creating significant export potential. If Indian government continues to release its reserves into the market through OMSS program in 2026, world rice prices are expected to fall sharply.
In addition, weak rupee creates a cost advantage, making Indian rice more competitive compared to Thailand and Vietnam. India is therefore becoming a new global "price anchor," reshaping the flow of rice trade from Africa to South Asia. Sub-Saharan Africa continues to be the region with the largest demand, expected to import nearly 19.5 million tonnes in 2025, while Southeast Asian countries, especially Indonesia and the Philippines, tend to control imports to support domestic farmers.
In this context, Thailand and Pakistan must lower prices to maintain market share, and Vietnam, despite maintaining an advantage in the high-quality fragrant rice segment, cannot avoid the pressure to adjust prices. Experts predict that prices may continue to fall in the first quarter of 2026 unless there are major weather or global policy changes.
A strong shift
Despite challenging global context, positive signs remain as the Philippines will reopen imports from the beginning of 2026, with an initial licensing volume of approximately 500,000 tonnes. However, import tariffs will increase from 15% to 20% from January 16, 2026 and total annual import volume will decrease to 3.6-3.8 million tonnes, about 1 million tonnes lower than in 2024. This indicates that while the market is open, competition is fierce, and it is no longer as easy as before.
Businesses are therefore clearly shifting their strategies. Mr. Nguyen Van Thanh, Director of Phuoc Thanh IV Production and Trading Co., Ltd., said that the company is diversifying its supply sources to many new markets such as the Middle East and Africa to reduce risk of dependence.
Green rice and low-emission rice are predicted to be Vietnam's main competitive advantages in the coming period. Water-saving farming models, reduced CH4 emissions, and traceability will help businesses easily access demanding markets. The ST25 rice variety continues to be honored as the "world's best-tasting rice," opening up significant opportunities for the high-end segment in the US, Europe, and China; Japonica rice is gaining traction in Japan. Many businesses are also promoting the export of processed products such as dried vermicelli, dried pho noodles, and canned rice, items with significantly higher value than raw rice.
Experts believe that shift from "selling paddy" to "selling finished rice products" is an inevitable direction, creating new value instead of relying on volatile raw rice prices. This is also a step in line with trend of agricultural economics replacing traditional production thinking.
“The rice industry must shift its focus from productivity to sustainability, investing in standardized raw material areas, green production, and reducing emissions in line with global consumption trends,” said Do Ha Nam, chairman of the Vietnam Food Association.
Vietnam faces the challenge of maintaining market share and increasing the value of rice grains.
As the “rice heartland” of the country, Mekong Delta is entering the 2025-2026 Winter-Spring crop season with 446,000 hectares already planted, equivalent to 35% of the plan. Production continues to remain stable, but exports in 2025 are projected to decrease by 13% in volume and 29% in value compared to the same period. This shows that farmers' and businesses' profits are being severely eroded by the global price race, especially with the oversupply forecast to last until the end of 2026.
However, the market is gradually restarting. Many Philippine businesses have placed orders to prepare for the supply in the new year; Africa and China have also resumed purchasing after a period of stagnation. Thailand recently signed a large contract for 500,000 tonnes with China, creating a positive signal for global rice trade.
In an interview with Industry and Trade Newspaper, agricultural expert Hoang Trong Thuy stated that the most important thing now is not just maintaining export volume, but also preserving profit margins through quality, branding, and deep processing. Vietnam has a significant advantage if it promotes standardized raw material areas and reduces emissions, a direction that is entirely appropriate as the world increasingly prioritizes green products. Along with that, expanding markets beyond ASEAN, especially Africa, the Middle East, the EU, and the US, will determine the sustainability of the industry in the upcoming oversupply cycle.
According to Mr. Hoang Trong Thuy, outlook for 2026 is not without challenges but potential for development of Vietnamese rice remains large if the shift is rapid and sufficiently in-depth. From its position as a major exporting nation, the new goal is not just to sell rice, but to sell quality, brand, and a value-added ecosystem. In a market with prolonged oversupply, the leader is not the one with the most rice, but the one who knows how to sell rice at the highest value.

Source: Vitic/ congthuong.vn