AsemconnectVietnam - In December of 2025, seafood exports reached approximately US$840 million, a decrease of nearly 4% compared to the same period last year and a 15% decrease compared to November of 2025, due to businesses being more cautious about exporting to the United States amidst the ban on imports of many major seafood species under the MMPA regulations and concerns about anti-dumping duties on shrimp from the beginning of 2026.

With that figure, seafood exports for the whole year of 2025 reached over US$11.34 billion, an increase of 13% compared to 2024.
2025 is a year with many challenges for seafood exports, from US retaliatory duties, the risk of anti-dumping duties on shrimp, high production costs to increasingly stringent technical barriers. However, it is precisely in this challenging context that seafood exports have recorded unexpected surges.
Three main reasons for the surge in seafood exports in 2025:
Firstly, instability in the global market increases the need for stockpiling, potentially leading to a sharp increase in food prices. This prompts both consumers and businesses in many countries to increase stockpiling, thereby increasing the demand for seafood imports.
Secondly, the proactive and flexible approach of the Vietnamese seafood business community plays a crucial role. Businesses have early identified risks from unfavorable timelines related to reciprocal duties, anti-dumping duties, or the US MMPA regulations, thereby developing strategies to increase exports, adjust markets, and plan deliveries to minimize negative impacts.
Thirdly, the advantages from free trade agreements (FTAs) continue to be a crucial leverage, helping seafood exports to break through in potential markets within the CPTPP, EU, and RCEP blocs, compensating for difficulties in some major markets.
Key markets compensate for the instability of the US market.
In the context of the US market experiencing many uncertainties regarding tariff policies and technical barriers, Vietnam's seafood exports have clearly adjusted their market structure.
The CPTPP bloc continues to be a major export driver thanks to tariff advantages and the stability of markets such as Japan, Canada, and Australia. By the end of 2025, seafood exports to CPTPP countries are projected to reach US$3.07 billion, a 22% increase compared to 2024.
China and Hong Kong were the fastest-growing markets among the key markets, with total exports reaching US$2.45 billion, a 29% increase. In particular, demand for fresh seafood products such as lobster, crab, scallops, and clams has increased sharply, demonstrating the growing role of this region in Vietnam's seafood export structure.
For the EU, total export turnover for the year reached nearly US$1.2 billion, a 12.5% increase compared to 2024. Demand in this market is gradually improving, with farmed seafood products having a greater advantage, while wild-caught seafood is still affected by the IUU yellow card.
It can be said that the CPTPP, China & Hong Kong, and the EU are key markets, playing an important supporting role for businesses amidst the instability of the US market regarding tariff policies and technical barriers.
Seafood exports to the US alone decreased by 45% in December of 2025. However, for the whole of 2025, exports to this market will still bring in a remarkable figure, nearly $1.9 billion, a slight increase of 3% compared to 2024.
Aquaculture showed outstanding growth
2025 showed fairly balanced growth among key product groups, with shrimp continuing to play a leading role. For the whole of 2025, shrimp exports will reach $4.65 billion, an increase of 20% compared to 2024, accounting for the largest share of total export value. Lobster is increasingly contributing to the shrimp industry, with an export value of $817 million, more than double the previous year. Pangasius ranks second with an export value of $2.19 billion, an increase of 8%, experiencing a more "lucky" year compared to other product categories in terms of market conditions due to more favorable countervailing duties in the US.
Other marine fish groups reached US$2.16 billion, an increase of 12.2%, continuing to make a significant contribution thanks to their large scale and diversified market. Squid and octopus recorded a considerable increase with a turnover of US$764.4 million, up by 16.3%, while tuna was the product group that saw a decline in turnover with US$913 million, down by 7.6%, due to the prolonged impact of raw material shortages and strict IUU regulations.
From the record high of 2025 to the challenge of maintaining seafood export growth in 2026
2026 remains a period of instability and unpredictability
The US$11 billion milestone is primarily the result of flexible breakthroughs, taking advantage of opportunities and market sentiment amidst many uncertainties. However, there is also a cyclical factor in the market: after a period of deep decline and low prices, the market enters a period of supply shortages, leading to a rebound in prices and demand.
Shifting market and product structures is a long-term strategy for businesses and the entire industry, but it requires more time for gradual adjustment and adaptation, rather than creating sustainable change in just one or two years.
US tariff policies, trade restrictions, and technical barriers may continue to make exporters worldwide cautious and consider shifting markets.
This trend simultaneously creates immense competitive pressure in other markets such as the EU, China, ASEAN, and the Middle East. Furthermore, the IUU yellow card remains a bottleneck that needs to be addressed to further open the EU market and enhance the reputation of Vietnamese seafood in the US and other markets.
CK
Source: VITIC/vasep.com.vn