Cumulatively, in the first 11 months of 2025, Vietnam’s coffee exports to the EU increased by 21.4% in volume and surged by 69.2% in value year on year. Coffee exports to the EU accounted for 40% of Vietnam’s total coffee export turnover in November 2025 and 41.3% in the first 11 months of 2025, up from 39.5% and 38.2%, respectively, in the same period of 2024. This indicates that Vietnam’s coffee export market share in the EU has expanded thanks to EVFTA.

   

Source: Calculations based on data from the Vietnam Customs.

Vietnam’s coffee exports increased sharply due to the new harvest season, which boosted domestic supply, while high domestic coffee prices in line with global trends encouraged exporters to sell. In addition, elevated global coffee prices and stronger EU demand toward year-end further supported exports, particularly for Robusta coffee. EVFTA tariff preferences and improved preparation for traceability requirements have enhanced the competitiveness of Vietnamese enterprises, reduced inspection risks, and ensured a more sustainable supply.

Based on Vietnam Customs data, the average export price of Vietnamese coffee to the EU in November 2025 reached USD5,497/tonne, up 2.35% month on month and 1.43% year on year. In the first 11 months of 2025, the average export price stood at USD5,519/tonne, representing a sharp increase of 39.3% compared with the same period in 2024.

The main export category remained unroasted, non-decaffeinated coffee, with export turnover of USD166.7 million in November 2025 and USD2.9 billion in the first 11 months of 2025, accounting for 89% of Vietnam’s total coffee export value to the EU.

Vietnam’s total coffee export turnover is forecast to exceed the record level of USD8 billion in 2025, of which exports to the EU are expected to surpass USD3.5 billion, up 70% compared with 2024.

According to Vietnam Customs, Vietnam’s coffee exports to the EU have experienced a strong surge since EVFTA took effect in August 2020. From a level of around USD64 million in August 2020, export turnover jumped to USD466 million by March 2025, an increase of 7.2 times. Subsequently, from April to November 2025, export turnover recorded two notable monthly increases, rising by 10% in September 2025 and 29% in November 2025 compared with the preceding months.

The structure of coffee exports among EU member states has undergone changes; however, the three largest importers remain Germany, Italy, and Spain.

According to Vietnam Customs data, the export price of Vietnamese coffee to the EU nearly tripled from January 2020 to November 2025, with the peak price recorded in October 2024 at USD5,859/tonne.

Coffee exports to the EU accounted for 40% of Vietnam’s total coffee export turnover in November 2025 and 41.3% in the first 11 months of the year, higher than the respective shares of 39.5% and 38.2% recorded in 2024. This confirms that Vietnam’s coffee export market share in the EU has expanded under the EVFTA framework.

According to data from the International Trade Centre (ITC) of the WTO, in the first eight months of 2025, Vietnam exported USD175.475 million worth of coffee extracts, essences, and concentrates (HS 210111) to the EU, ranking third among major suppliers, behind only Germany and Spain. This marked a significant improvement from ninth place in the same period of 2020. Compared with the same period in 2024, export value of this product group rose by approximately 49%, a growth rate higher than that of most competing suppliers, thereby strengthening Vietnam’s position among leading exporters.

The outlook for Vietnam’s coffee exports to the EU in the final months of 2025 and throughout 2026 remains positive, supported by the new harvest season, high prices, and EVFTA tariff preferences. In addition, Vietnam has been classified by the EU as a “low-risk” country, meaning that Vietnamese exports are subject to less stringent document and origin inspections than those from “high-risk” countries. The EU will continue to be a major consumer market, with rising demand for processed and sustainably produced coffee, creating opportunities to enhance export value.

However, exports may face negative impacts from stricter traceability requirements, volatility in global prices, intensifying international competition, and rising logistics costs toward year-end.

In the short term, enterprises should complete EUDR compliance documentation and fully utilize tariff preferences. In the medium term, efforts should focus on standardizing raw material zones and upgrading warehousing and logistics systems. In the long term, Vietnam should shift toward processed, higher value-added coffee products and develop sustainable branding. The combination of these measures will help Vietnam’s coffee exports maintain stable growth in both volume and value in the EU market in the coming period.

T.Huong

Source: Vitic