High coffee prices create a "lever" for exports
According to statistics from the Customs Department (Ministry of Finance), in November 2025, Vietnam exported nearly 89,000 tons of coffee, earning approximately 508 million USD, an increase of 41% in volume and 44.4% in value compared to the same period in 2024. This result continues to affirm the pivotal role of coffee in Vietnam's key agricultural export group.
In the first 11 months of 2025, coffee exports reached approximately 1.4 million tons, with a value of 7.94 billion USD. Notably, while production only increased by 15.1% compared to the same period last year, export value increased by as much as 60.9%. The main reason stems from the average export price of coffee reaching US$5,661/ton, an increase of nearly 40% compared to 2024.
The EU continues to be the largest export market for Vietnamese coffee, accounting for over 40% of total export value. Germany, for the first time, exceeded US$1 billion in coffee imports from Vietnam. In addition, exports to Japan, the United States, and many other markets also recorded positive growth.
2025 is considered a successful year for the Vietnamese coffee industry as export activities maintain stable growth, mainly due to high global coffee prices amidst tight global supply. Import demand from major markets remains strong, creating a solid foundation for export revenue.
Along with price, the gradual improvement in product quality, increasing the proportion of processed coffee, and better adherence to technical and sustainable standards also contribute to enhancing export value and strengthening the position of Vietnamese coffee in the international market.
With this trend, coffee exports in 2025 are projected to reach a record high in value, continuing to make a significant contribution to the growth of agricultural exports. Consequently, coffee growers will also have a year of good harvests and favorable prices, leading to significantly improved incomes.
Supply pressure causes coffee prices to adjust.
However, the strong upward trend in coffee prices will not last continuously. Entering the new harvest season, the market will begin to show signs of adjustment, reflecting the supply-demand law and the familiar cycle of the industry.
From the beginning of December 2025, domestic coffee prices are expected to decline sharply. Domestic coffee prices in mid-December fell to around 100,500 – 101,200 VND/kg, the lowest level in over four months. By December 21st, the average domestic coffee price reached approximately 90,300 VND/kg, a decrease of nearly 9,000 VND/kg compared to the previous week, equivalent to a drop of almost 9%.
In key coffee-growing areas, prices generally remained above 90,000 VND/kg, except in the highland region of Lam Dong where prices were around 89,500 VND/kg. On the world market, Robusta coffee futures for March 2026 delivery continued to fall, with a total decrease of approximately 330 USD/tonne, to 3,669 USD/tonne, equivalent to a decrease of over 8%.
Speaking with a reporter from the Industry and Trade Newspaper, Mr. Nguyen Nam Hai, Chairman of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (VICOFA), said that the sharp drop in domestic coffee prices is mainly due to increased supply pressure as the 2025-2026 harvest season in the Central Highlands provinces enters its peak. Simultaneously, the simultaneous decline in global coffee prices has dragged down export prices, forcing businesses to adjust domestic purchasing prices.
According to Mr. Hai, the current price of green coffee beans in the domestic market fluctuates between 92,000 and 94,000 VND/kg. Both Brazil and Vietnam, the world's two major coffee suppliers, have had bumper harvests and increased production, so coffee prices may continue to face downward pressure in the short term. However, the possibility of prices returning to the lows of previous years is unlikely.
“The downward trend may stabilize at around 80,000 – 85,000 VND/kg. At this price level, farmers will still have good profits in this year's harvest,” the Chairman of VICOFA commented.
From a business perspective, in an interview with the Industry and Trade Newspaper, Mr. Thai Nhu Hiep, Chairman of the Board of Directors and General Director of Vinh Hiep Co., Ltd., said that the current decline in coffee prices is understandable.
According to Mr. Hiep, this is the peak period before the New Year and Lunar New Year, when both farmers and businesses need to sell a portion of their production to ensure cash flow. Typically, sales during this period account for about 30% of the total production.
For farmers, the money earned is used to reinvest in agricultural supplies for the new season, cover living expenses, and prepare for the Tet holiday. Long-term calculations such as holding onto goods to wait for higher prices are usually only considered after essential needs have been met. Another factor impacting the market is the change in purchasing behavior of international importers. Previously, when concerns about tax policies existed, many partners increased their purchases from Vietnam. However, with these barriers removed, buyers shifted to a wait-and-see mode, expecting further price reductions before returning to the market, causing current buying pressure to weaken.
Nevertheless, according to Mr. Thai Nhu Hiep, fundamentally, Vietnam remains one of the countries with a significant advantage in Robusta coffee, boasting large production volumes, stable quality, a safe business environment, and a high reputation for contract fulfillment. These factors contribute to Vietnam's continued reputation as an "easy to buy, reliable" market for importers.
Regarding prospects, industry experts predict that coffee prices will likely remain under downward pressure until the Lunar New Year. However, a sharp drop after the holiday is unlikely. This is because in recent years, coffee growers have accumulated a better financial foundation and are no longer under pressure to sell at any price.
"In reality, when about 80-90% of the decision-making power lies in the hands of farmers, the market will be forced to adjust towards greater balance. If after Tet, people do not sell off their crops in large quantities, the actual supply will no longer be as abundant as during the peak period, thereby supporting the stabilization of coffee prices," Mr. Thai Nhu Hiep shared.
From a long-term perspective, export businesses are also aiming for harmonious benefit sharing in the value chain to ensure the sustainable development of the coffee industry. Because only when producers, businesses, importers, and consumers all benefit can the Vietnamese coffee industry sustainably maintain its position in the international market.

Source: Vitic/ congthuong.vn