Positive signals from export recovery momentum
After a long period of facing market fluctuations and declining consumer demand, the Vietnamese cashew industry is gradually regaining growth momentum, affirming its position as one of the key agricultural export industries. Not only maintaining its role as the world's No. 1 cashew nut exporting country. Vietnam also shows new progress in added value, product quality and market coverage.
According to data from Vietnam Customs, in September 2025, Vietnam exported 72,440 tonnes of cashew nuts, worth 491.29 million USD, up 4.2% in volume and 3.9% in value compared to August 2025. Compared to the same period in 2024, cashew nut exports increased sharply by 26.5% in volume and 31.5% in value. This is the 6th consecutive month of cashew nut exports growing compared to the same period, affirming the steady recovery trend of the Vietnamese cashew industry after a period of stagnation in the global market. In the first 9 months of 2025, Vietnam exported nearly 554,760 tonnes of cashew nuts, reaching a turnover of 3.77 billion USD, up 1.6% in volume and 19.5% in value compared to the same period in 2024. The growth in value far exceeded the growth rate in volume, showing that the average export price is clearly improving.
This is a testament to efforts to improve product quality, expand market and affirm the Vietnamese cashew brand on the world export map.
Regarding export prices, in September 2025, the average price reached 6,781 USD/tonne, down slightly by 0.3% compared to August but still up 3.9% compared to the same period in 2024. In the first 9 months, the average price reached 6,801 USD/tonne, up 17.6% compared to the same period last year. This development shows that, despite local fluctuations in the market, Vietnam's cashew prices remain competitive and attractive.
The structure of the cashew export market continues to maintain its performance. Five key markets, including China, the United States, the Netherlands, Germany and the UAE, account for more than 58% of the country's total export volume.
Notably, China surpassed the United States to become the largest market for Vietnamese cashews in September 2025, reaching 17,300 tonnes, worth 110.97 million USD, more than doubling both in volume and value compared to the same period last year. In the first 9 months, exports to China reached 125,690 tonnes, worth 797.42 million USD, up 37.4% and 54.1% respectively.
Experts say that strong growth in China, Germany, UAE, UK or Saudi Arabia has partly offset the decline from the US and EU markets, demonstrating efforts to diversify markets and reduce dependence on a few traditional partners. This is a strategic step to help Vietnamese cashew businesses increase their resilience to fluctuations in the global economy and consumer demand in major markets.
Opportunities and challenges in the peak export season
Entering the last quarter of 2025, the world cashew industry will enter the peak consumption season when demand from the US, EU and China increases sharply to serve the year-end holiday season. This is considered a "golden" period for Vietnamese businesses to take advantage of growth momentum, expand market share and optimize export profits. However, the picture is not entirely favorable. Major import markets are tightening food safety standards, traceability and sustainability certification.
Meanwhile, increasingly fierce competition is coming from African countries, which are investing heavily in deep processing and participating more deeply in the global supply chain. The emergence of manufacturers from Ivory Coast, Ghana, Tanzania, etc. is putting significant pressure on Vietnam's leading position.
In addition, logistics costs and fluctuating exchange rates are still factors that greatly affect export efficiency. The fact that some traditional markets, such as the United States, the Netherlands, Canada, Australia or Russia, have reduced imports shows a trend of more moderate consumption and increasingly fierce price competition. This requires businesses to invest more heavily in product innovation, improving quality and increasing processing value instead of focusing only on exporting raw cashew nuts.
To take advantage of opportunities during the peak export season, Vietnamese businesses need to proactively build market strategies, diversify distribution channels and strengthen risk management in the face of trade policy fluctuations. Shifting to deeply processed products such as cashew butter, cashew milk or high-end cashew snack products not only helps increase added value but also opens up new consumer segments.
In addition, deeper participation in sustainable supply chains and taking advantage of free trade agreements (EVFTA, CPTPP, RCEP, UKVFTA) will be the "key" to help the cashew industry expand its market and reduce tariff costs. Many businesses have now begun to invest in modern processing technology, applying digital transformation in quality management and traceability to meet the increasing demands of international partners.
Outlook for the last months of 2025 is still considered positive. If the current growth rate is maintained, Vietnam's cashew export turnover can exceed the 5 billion USD mark, consolidating its position as the world's No. 1 cashew exporter.
At the same time, experts recommend that the Vietnamese cashew industry should continue to promote linkages between raw material regions, improve productivity and quality of domestic cashew nuts, in order to reduce dependence on imported raw materials, a factor that is still a "bottleneck" of the industry.

Source: Vitic/ congthuong.vn