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Assessing the impact of the EVFTA agreement on Vietnam's coffee exports to the EU in the first 5 months of 2025 

 Monday, September 29,2025

AsemconnectVietnam - According to calculations based on statistics from the General Department of Vietnam Customs, in May 2025, Vietnam’s coffee exports to the EU reached 65,412 tonnes, worth more than USD366.7 million; down 13.45% in volume and 14.5% in value compared with the previous month. However, compared with the same period last year, exports still increased by 140% in volume and 222% in value.

In the first five months of 2025, Vietnam’s coffee exports to the EU totaled more than 368 thousand tonnes, valued at USD2.106 billion, up 12% in volume and 88.7% in value compared with the same period in 2024. The EU accounted for 42.6% of Vietnam’s total coffee export turnover in May and 44% in the first five months of the year. This share has increased compared with the 39% recorded last year. Thus, Vietnam’s coffee export market share in the EU has grown significantly thanks to the EVFTA.
Export turnover of coffee to the EU and its share in Vietnam’s total coffee exports in the first five months of 2025
Unit: USD
Indicator
May 2025
YoY (%)
MoM (%)
5M 2025
YoY (%)
Vietnam’s total coffee exports
859,905,271
+153.48
-11
4,704,079,102
+64.31
Coffee exports to the EU
375,477,098
+229
-14
2,106,451,406
+85.7
EU’s share in Vietnam’s total exports (%)
42.6
44
Source: Calculations from Vietnam Customs statistics
According to Vietnam Customs, the average export price of Vietnam’s coffee to the EU in May 2025 was USD5,606/tonne, down 1.22% compared with April 2025 but up 34.2% compared with May 2024. For the first five months, the average export price was USD5,637/tonne, an increase of 65.5% compared with the same period in 2024.
Vietnam’s Coffee Exports to the EU – Details by Member State in the First Five Months of 2025
Unit: USD
Market
May 2025 Export Value (USD)
Change vs. Apr 2025 (%)
Change vs. May 2024 (%)
5M/2025 Export Value (USD)
Change vs. 5M/2024 (%)
Share in EU-27 Total (%)
Total
375,477,098
-8.0
27.8
2,106,451,406
85.7
100
Germany
137,009,228
-10.75
331.27
765,113,544
118.8
36
Italy
64,270,732
-11.0
162.14
371,929,513
-13.65
17.5
Spain
55,606,223
-36.52
125.87
348,150,787
62.79
16.5
Netherlands
35,704,980
-15.22
210.05
189,940,341
12.04
9
Belgium
32,629,293
4.33
313.21
166,186,440
30.26
7.8
Poland
13,742,465
-5.33
129.39
81,605,990
81.98
3.9
France
12,233,801
10.49
35.61
68,234,892
38.4
3.2
Portugal
7,669,790
5.74
209.29
36,035,674
-14.68
1.7
Lithuania
6,395,139
589
714
785,215
-85
1.0
Greece
5,260,917
62.99
114.41
22,017,075
-13.31
0.6
Finland
3,412,123
-4
-46
856,570
31
0.5
Sweden
2,370,402
1,587
11.6
2,123,496
45
0.3
Romania
1,618,107
-63.17
240.75
12,799,949
49.46
0.3
Ireland
1,459,091
560
48
984,161
601
0.3
Denmark
997,584
-24.68
87.77
5,740,016
43.17
0.2
Cyprus
682,607
9,402
627
93,852
65
0.2
Slovenia
232,165
-93
-95
4,968,116
93.5
0.2
Latvia
55,105
-95
-93
774,743
-80
0.1
Czech Republic
48,711
-75
-90
2,264,610
151
0.1
Slovakia
48,711
-94
-90
139
176
0.08
Estonia
1,144,290
51.7
0.07
Source: Calculations from Vietnam Customs statistics
Market structure within the EU
According to Vietnam Customs, compared with April 2025, Vietnam’s coffee exports to many EU markets in May 2025 dropped sharply. Notably, exports to Latvia fell 95% month-on-month, Slovenia down 93%, and the Czech Republic down 75%. However, exports to Sweden surged by 1,587%, while those to Lithuania rose 589%. Germany was the largest importer of Vietnam’s coffee this month. Exports to Germany reached USD137 million (equivalent to 24.9 thousand tonnes), down 10.7% in value and 10.4% in volume compared with April 2025 but up 216.47% in volume and 331.27% in value compared with the same month of 2024, accounting for 36% of Vietnam’s total coffee export value to the EU. The average export price was USD5,484.32/tonne, up 36% YoY.
In the first five months of 2025, exports to Germany reached 137,825 tonnes, worth USD765 million, up 32% in volume and 119% in value compared with the same period last year. The average export price was USD5,551.34/tonne, up 65.73% YoY. Spain ranked second with USD55.6 million (equivalent to 9,537 tonnes), down 36.5% in value and 36% in volume compared with April 2025, but up 75.2% in volume and 125.8% in value compared with May 2024, accounting for 17.5% of Vietnam’s total coffee export value to the EU. The average export price was USD5,830.58/tonne, down 0.86% YoY.
In the first five months, exports to Spain totaled 59,679 tonnes, worth USD348 million, down 1.85% in volume but up 59% in value compared with the same period last year. The average export price was USD5,833.7/tonne, up 62.79% YoY.
Italy ranked third with USD64.27 million (equivalent to 11,845 tonnes), down 11% in value but up 11.6% in volume compared with April 2025, and up 75.53% in volume and 162% in value compared with May 2024, accounting for 16.5% of Vietnam’s total coffee export value to the EU. The average export price was USD5,426/tonne, up 0.71% YoY.
In the first five months, exports to Italy totaled 69,653 tonnes, worth USD371.9 million, down 13.6% in volume but up 46.21% in value compared with the same period last year. The average export price was USD5,340.5/tonne, up 69.32% YoY.
Coffee export product structure to the EU
By product category, Vietnam’s exports to the EU are still dominated by green coffee beans. Although the share of processed coffee remains small, it has grown strongly compared with the same period last year, increasingly strengthening Vietnam’s position in the EU market.
·         Unroasted, non-decaffeinated coffee ranked first, with an export value of USD341 million in May 2025, down 16% MoM but up 270% YoY, accounting for 91% of Vietnam’s total coffee exports to the EU. In the first five months, exports of this product reached USD1.922 billion, up 88.7% YoY.
·         Coffee extracts and concentrates ranked second, with exports of USD20.8 million in May 2025, up 8.6% MoM and 84.8% YoY, accounting for 5.5% of total coffee exports to the EU. In the first five months, exports reached USD114 million, up 62.5% YoY.
·         Decaffeinated coffee ranked third, with exports of USD13 million in May 2025, up 26.2% MoM and 29.6% YoY, accounting for 3.5% of total coffee exports to the EU. In the first five months, exports totaled USD67.2 million, up 57% YoY.
Assessment of EVFTA’s impact
On export turnover:
According to Vietnam Customs, Vietnam’s coffee exports to the EU have surged since the EVFTA came into effect (August 2020). From about USD64 million in August 2020, exports jumped to a peak of USD466 million in March 2025—an increase of 7.2 times.
On market structure:
Compared with the pre-EVFTA period, the export structure to EU member states has shifted. However, the top three importers remain Germany, Italy, and Spain.
·         Germany’s market share increased from 31% to 36%.
·         Spain’s share declined from 19% to 17%.
·         Italy’s share dropped from 22% to 17%.
·         Belgium’s share rose from 7% to 8%.
·         Poland’s share increased from 3% to 4%.
·         France and the Netherlands remained unchanged.
On export prices:
According to Vietnam Customs, the export price of Vietnamese coffee to the EU has nearly tripled, rising from USD2,000/tonne in January 2020 to nearly USD6,000/tonne in May 2025.
Export outlook
Despite global coffee market volatility, Vietnam’s coffee exports to the EU are expected to maintain positive momentum, supported by:
·         Rising demand in the EU: The EU consumes about 2.5–3 million tonnes of coffee annually, with stable demand and growing interest in value-added segments such as organic, sustainable, and instant coffee. Vietnam’s coffee (especially Robusta) fits EU consumer preferences and trends, making it the largest export market for Vietnam’s coffee.
·         Positive impact from the EVFTA: Many coffee tariff lines (including extracts and concentrates – HS 2101) have been reduced or eliminated, enhancing Vietnam’s competitiveness compared with countries without an FTA with the EU.
Challenges to note:
·         The upcoming EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) will require strict traceability documentation, posing compliance challenges.
·         Vietnam faces competitive pressure from EU-based suppliers in the coffee extract segment (notably Germany and Spain).
T.Huong
Source: Vitic
 

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