Key markets: U.S and China – two contrasting extremes

Vietnam’s seafood exports to the United States reached $145.8 million in July, down 19.6% year-on-year, despite a cumulative 7-month increase of 10.4%. The primary reason is the impact of anticipated U.S. countervailing duties, set at 20% from August 2025, combined with anti-dumping (AD) and countervailing duties, disrupting exports and reducing orders.

Notably, the preliminary AD duty for shrimp (POR19) announced in early June reached 33.29% for companies like Stapimex, shaking market confidence. If this rate remains in the final December ruling, Vietnam’s shrimp risks losing its U.S. market share.

In contrast, China exhibited remarkable growth: USD 221.5 million in July (+31.7%) and USD 1.33 billion over seven months (+42.6%). China’s robust import recovery, especially for shrimp and squid, provided room for Vietnamese firms to accelerate exports before the U.S. tariffs took effect in August. This reflects enterprises’ flexibility in pivoting to high-growth markets and leveraging FTAs like RCEP and CPTPP for tariff advantages.

Beyond the U.S. and China, markets like Japan, the EU, South Korea, and ASEAN showed positive growth, indicating a favorable global consumption shift for Vietnamese seafood, supported by competitive pricing and abundant supply.

Shrimp, Pangasius, and Tuna Under Policy and Tariff Impacts

Shrimp remains the leading export, reaching USD 2.49 billion over seven months (+23.6%). However, the U.S. market, a major segment, is constrained by tariff policies, causing order slowdowns. Compared to competitors like Ecuador (15% tariff) or Indonesia and the Philippines (19%), Vietnamese shrimp risks losing competitiveness if the 20% countervailing duty is enforced. The industry faces challenges as the preliminary POR19 AD duty of 33.29% for major firms, announced in June, could eliminate Vietnam’s shrimp from the U.S. market if unchanged by December.

Annual shrimp export forecasts range from USD 3.6–3.8 billion, assuming firms continue to tap Asian, EU, and CPTPP markets effectively while promoting value-added products to Japan.

Pangasius exports reached USD 1.22 billion over seven months (+11.1%). A highlight is the 0% AD duty (POR20) for eight major firms like Vĩnh Hoàn, restoring U.S. market confidence. However, the new countervailing duty could significantly increase costs and prices. With China’s market slowing due to inventory buildup, firms are compelled to expand into ASEAN, South America, and the Middle East.

Conversely, tuna exports faced difficulties, declining 2.8% to USD 542 million over seven months, with a sharp 19% drop in July. The main cause is domestic regulatory issues, such as Decree 37, which prohibits mixing domestically caught and imported raw materials and sets a minimum skipjack tuna catch size of 0.5 meters. This restricts fishermen from harvesting and selling, while firms lack domestic raw materials for processing and cannot fully utilize the EU’s 11,500-ton tuna tariff quota under the EVFTA.

Vietnam enterprises struggles to “weather the storm” as U.S. tightens tariffs

According to the latest information from the U.S, starting August 7, 2025, a 20% countervailing tariff will take effect on Vietnamese imports, including seafood.

Compared to competitors such as Ecuador (15%), the Philippines and Indonesia (19%) and Thailand (19%), Vietnam’s seafood faces the highest tariff. Additionally, mechanisms such as anti-dumping duties, countervailing duties and technical barriers like equivalence requirements under the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA) - puts Vietnamese seafood at an even greater competitive disadvantage.

The risk of losing market share in the U.S, especially for shrimp and tuna, is very real if the high 33.29% anti-dumping duty on shrimp is finalized.

For tuna, already challenged by raw material shortages, higher tariffs compared to Ecuador, the Philippines and Indonesia exacerbate the situation.

Vietnamese enterprises are striving to diversify products, redirect markets and optimize production costs to avoid being “pushed off the track”.

Forecast and Outlook

In the second half of 2025, Vietnam’s seafood export picture is forecast to be “both challenging and promising”. Challenges stem from the 20% U.S. countervailing duty effective August 7, the risk of losing the shrimp market, tuna restrictions, as well as geopolitical instability and supply chain disruptions.

However, opportunities remain promising. Strong recovery of the Chinese, ASEAN and Japanese markets, along with easing technical barriers from the EU, creates growth potential for deeply processed products. Trade agreements such as the EVFTA, CPTPP and UKVFTA continue to provide Vietnam with outstanding tariff advantages over competitors.

For 2025, seafood exports are projected to reach about $9–9.2 billion with shrimp at $3.6–3.8 billion, pangasius at $1.8 billion, tuna at $850–900 million and other seafood contributing nearly $3 billion. However, to achieve this target, enterprises must secure raw materials, improve quality, invest in processing technology and diversify markets - especially niche markets within the CPTPP, ASEAN and intra-Asia.
Source: Vasep