AsemconnectVietnam - It is forecasted that in 2025, Vietnam’s seafood exports could reach about 9 billion - 9.2 billion USD. Of which, shrimp exports are expected to reach 3.6-3.8 billion USD, pangasius 1.8 billion USD, tuna about 850-900 million USD and other seafood contributes nearly 3 billion USD.

Ms. Le Hang, Deputy Secretary General of the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), said that in July of 2025, Vietnam's seafood export turnover reached 971 million USD, up 6.1% over the same period last year.
In the first 7 months of the year, the total export value reached 6.22 billion USD, a strong growth of 17.2%. However, behind this result is a race against time by many export enterprises to accelerate orders to the United States before August 1, 2025 - the new reciprocal tax application deadline announced by the US in early July of 2025.
According to Ms. Le Hang, the US market recorded an export value of 145.8 million USD in July, down by 19.6% over the same period, although the total for 7 months still increased by 10.4%.
The main reason comes from the impact of the reciprocal tax policy that the US plans to apply from August of 2025 at a rate of up to 20%, along with anti-dumping tax (CBPG) and countervailing tax, causing exports to the US to be disrupted and orders to decrease.
The Chinese market recorded remarkable growth, the exports to China in July reached 221.5 million USD (up by 31.7%), and the figures of the first 7 months of this year reached 1.33 billion USD (up by 42.6%). China has increased imports again, especially shrimp and squid, creating room for Vietnamese businesses to accelerate before the US imposed tariffs in August.
This is also the result of flexibility from businesses when proactively shifting direction, boosting consumption in markets with good growth, while taking advantage of FTAs such as RCEP, CPTPP to enjoy tariff incentives.
Pangasius exports are expected to reach 1.8 billion USD
In addition to the US and China, the markets of Japan, EU, South Korea and ASEAN all grew positively, showing that the global consumption shift trend is beneficial for Vietnamese seafood, especially in the context of reasonable prices and abundant supply.
Along with that, shrimp continues to be the main export item, reaching 2.49 billion USD in 7 months (up by 23.6%). However, the US market (accounting for a large proportion) is being suffocated by tax policies, causing businesses to show signs of slowing down orders.
According to Ms. Le Hang, compared to competitors such as Ecuador (tax only 15%) or Indonesia and the Philippines (19%), Vietnamese shrimp is gradually losing its advantage if the 20% reciprocal tax is implemented.
The shrimp industry is entering a difficult period when the preliminary results of POR19 announced by the US Department of Commerce in June showed that the anti-dumping tax on shrimp is up to 33.29% for many large enterprises. If this tax is not adjusted in the final results in December, Vietnamese shrimp is at risk of being eliminated from the US market.
It is forecasted that shrimp exports could reach 3.6-3.8 billion USD for the whole year in the scenario that businesses continue to exploit the Asian market, the EU, CPTPP countries and promote value-added products to Japan.
Pangasius recorded an export turnover of 1.22 billion USD after 7 months, up by 11.1%. The bright spot is that 8 large enterprises such as Vinh Hoan were granted 0% anti-dumping tax according to the POR20 results, helping to restore confidence in the US market.
However, if the new reciprocal tax is implemented, pangasius will also be heavily affected in terms of costs and prices. In the context of the Chinese market showing signs of slowing down due to inventory, businesses are forced to find ways to expand in ASEAN, South America and the Middle East.
In contrast, tuna is facing difficulties with a 7-month turnover decreasing slightly by 2.8% to 542 million USD, and a sharp decrease of nearly 19% in July. The main reason comes from inadequate domestic regulations such as Decree 37 - prohibiting the mixing of domestically exploited raw materials with imported ones, while enterprises do not have domestic raw materials to process for export and cannot take advantage of the tariff in the 11,500-tonne tuna quota to the EU under the EVFTA agreement.
Exports are expected to reach 9-9.2 billion USD
According to the latest information from the United States, from August 7, 2025, the 20% reciprocal tax rate will officially take effect in the US for imported goods from Vietnam, including seafood.
Compared to competitors such as Ecuador (tax of 15%), the Philippines and Indonesia (19%), or Thailand (36%), Vietnamese seafood is subject to the highest tax rate. In particular, the anti-tax mechanism when having to calculate other taxes such as anti-dumping (CBPG), anti-subsidy and additional technical barriers as equivalent regulations under the Marine Animal Protection Act (MMPA), makes Vietnamese seafood products fall into a weaker competitive area.
The risk of losing market share in the US market - especially for shrimp and tuna - is completely real if the Vietnamese shrimp industry is subject to a high CBPG tax of 33.29% as the preliminary ruling.
For tuna, which is already difficult in terms of raw materials, the higher tax rate compared to Ecuador, the Philippines and Indonesia makes it even more disadvantaged.
Vietnamese enterprises are having to make efforts to diversify products, change markets, and optimize production costs to avoid being "kicked out of the race".
Based on the above facts, Ms. Le Hang commented that in the last 6 months of 2025, the picture of Vietnam's seafood exports is forecast to be "both challenging and hopeful". The challenge comes from the US's 20% reciprocal tax policy that took effect from August 7, the risk of losing the shrimp market and restrictions on tuna, along with geopolitical instability and supply chain disruptions.
However, opportunities are still wide open. The strong recovery of the Chinese, ASEAN and Japanese markets, along with the signal of removing technical barriers from the EU, opens up growth space for deeply processed product lines. Trade agreements such as EVFTA, CPTPP, UKVFTA continue to create superior tariff advantages compared to competitor countries.
VASEP forecasts that in 2025, seafood exports could reach about 9 billion USD - 9.2 billion USD. Of which, shrimp is expected to reach 3.6-3.8 billion USD, pangasius 1.8 billion USD, tuna about 850-900 million USD and other seafood contributing nearly 3 billion USD.
However, to achieve this goal, businesses need to continue to proactively source raw materials, improve quality, invest in processing technology and diversify markets, especially niche markets in CPTPP, ASEAN and within Asia.
CK
Source: VITIC/ haiquanonline.com.vn