AsemconnectVietnam - Seafood exports in the first 6 months of 2025 grew by double digits. However, exports to the US market are on a downward trend, experts predict that the second half of the year will be more difficult.

Exports grow by double digits
According to Ms. Le Hang, Deputy Secretary General of the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers, after a sharp increase of over 20% in May, seafood exports in June were still higher than the same period last year, but the increase was modest at only 4%, reaching 876 million USD. The reason was the decline in exports to the US market, down by 26% compared to the same period last year.
In the first 6 months of 2025, seafood exports reached 5.2 billion USD, up by nearly 19% over the same period last year. Of which, the exports to the US reached 891 million USD, still up by 16% thanks to the "acceleration" of deliveries before July 9 - the time when the US applied new reciprocal taxes.
However, since June, many businesses have proactively stopped exporting to the US to avoid the risk of being taxed high.
Meanwhile, the Chinese, Japanese, South Korean and ASEAN markets continued to maintain good growth momentum in June, increasing from 15% to nearly 28%. Meanwhile, exports to the EU slowed down, down slightly by 1%, while the Middle East region decreased sharply by 16% due to the impact of the war. Notably, exports to Israel - a large consumer market for canned tuna - decreased by more than 50%.
In terms of products, tuna was the group with the sharpest decline in June, down by more than 31% compared to the same period, mainly due to the impact of tariffs from the US - a market with a large proportion. In the first 6 months, tuna exports decreased by nearly 2%.
Meanwhile, shrimp and pangasius growth slowed down, also affected by the US tax policy. By the end of June, shrimp exports reached 2.07 billion USD (up by 26%), pangasius reached 1 billion USD (up by 10%).
Scenario for the second half of the year
According to experts, based on the above reality, seafood exports in the second half of the year are forecast to be more difficult and depend on the US tariff scenario.
The outlook for the second half of 2025 for these two key industries depends entirely on the US's reciprocal tax policy. In particular, shrimp is at risk of facing "tax on tax" including reciprocal tax, anti-dumping tax and anti-subsidy tax.
The pangasius industry is somewhat more optimistic when the US Department of Commerce (DOC) recently announced the final results of the POR20 review period, with 7 Vietnamese enterprises enjoying a 0% anti-dumping tax rate. If the upcoming reciprocal tax rate is well controlled, this could be an opportunity for Vietnamese pangasius to break through.
According to Ms. Le Hang's analysis, with scenario 1 - the US reciprocal tax after July 9 is 10%: total export turnover in 2025 could decrease to about 9.5 billion USD, down 500 million USD compared to the previous forecast.
Other markets such as China, ASEAN, Japan and the EU can absorb part of the regulated goods from the US.
Scenario 2 - reciprocal tax over 10%, possibly up to 46%: exports are at risk of falling sharply to only 9 billion USD or lower. The US will no longer be a stable market, especially for products with complex supply chains.
In the worst case scenario, competition from countries with lower taxes such as Ecuador, India, Thailand, Indonesia will become more fierce. Opportunities will shift to neutral markets such as Japan, the EU and ASEAN, but the ability to compensate is limited in the context of global consumer demand not yet recovering strongly.
CK
Source: VITIC/ haiquanonline.com.vn