The recent session saw Robusta prices rise by over 4% thanks to a weakening US dollar. Technical indicators on both exchanges have entered the oversold zone, prompting a price rally.

The domestic coffee market has rebounded compared to the same time yesterday.

Global Market:
In the most recent trading session:

Although a weaker US dollar failed to support coffee prices in the previous session, it contributed to Robusta’s over 4% increase in the latest session.

As of early June 27, the US Dollar Index (DXY) — which tracks the dollar against six major currencies (EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, SEK, CHF) — fell by 0.37% to 97.32, hitting its lowest point in 3.5 years against the euro and pound sterling. This occurred amid a strong wave of sell-offs as traders recalibrated their expectations, now anticipating that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may implement more interest rate cuts than previously expected.

Technical indicators on both major coffee exchanges have entered the oversold territory, triggering speculative buying and pushing prices up.

According to the latest Rabobank report, global coffee demand is forecast to decline by 0.5% in 2025, mainly due to high prices as coffee companies pass on increased inventory replenishment costs to consumers.

With higher production and weakening demand, Rabobank projects that the global coffee supply-demand balance will shift from a small deficit of 900,000 bags in the 2024–2025 crop year to a surplus of 1.4 million bags in 2025–2026.

The bank also noted that supply may continue to improve in the 2026–2027 crop year as coffee crop development in Brazil, the world’s top producer, shows promising prospects.

 

T.Huong

Source: Vitic