Mr. Nguyen Van Thanh - Director of Phuoc Thanh IV Production - Trading Company Limited (Vinh Long province) - had an interview with reporters of Cong Thuong Newspaper on this issue.
Vietnam's export rice prices are leading the world

- What is current situation of Vietnam's export rice prices?

Mr. Nguyen Van Thanh: According to update of the enterprise, currently, export price of 5% broken rice of Vietnam is fluctuating between 397 - 400 USD/tonne; meanwhile, export price of 5% broken rice of Thailand is around 383 - 390 USD/tonne; export price of 5% broken rice of India and Pakistan is at 376 - 380 USD/tonne. Thus, Vietnam's rice export price is currently the world's leading price.
Vietnam's 5% broken rice market share is not large, accounting for about 25%. The rest is high-quality rice such as fragrant rice, long-grain sticky rice, of which the export price of OM5451 rice is at 500 - 510 USD/tonne; the export price of OM18 rice is currently at 510 - 530 USD/tonne. These rice varieties account for about 60 - 70%. With specialty rice varieties (accounting for about 5 - 10%), current export price of rice is at 800 - 1,200 USD/tonne. Therefore, Vietnam's average export price of rice is currently over 500 USD/tonne.
Winter-Spring crop is almost over, with only about 20 - 25% of rice left in the fields. This will help reduce pressure on collection and consumption. In addition, many markets such as the Philippines, some African countries...are also in need of negotiating and buying more rice again. Vietnam's rice reserves in the past have also been quite good. However, businesses are expecting a better price, then they will sell. Because although it is the world leader, Vietnam's 5% broken rice export price is not much higher than other countries.

- How do you forecast Vietnam's rice export price in the coming time?

Mr. Nguyen Van Thanh: Regarding assessment for purchasing or exporting, I think that currently, Vietnam's rice export price is not high. If talking about fluctuations, in the past 10 years, Vietnam's rice export price has increased by about 2 - 3%. This figure is lower than the increase of other agricultural products.
In 2023 - 2024, due to India's ban on rice exports, Vietnam's rice export price has increased significantly. By 2025, Vietnam's rice export prices will return to 2021-2022 level.
It is forecasted that from now until the end of the year, rice export prices will not decrease, but will not increase much. The reason is that in the past two years, rice prices have increased sharply, so many countries have also increased their planting areas or increased their crops. Therefore, it is forecasted that in 2025, amount of food will increase by about 5 million tons compared to 2023 and 2024 (an increase of about 1%). If rice prices continue to decrease, some countries will skip crops. According to the cycle, in about 2-3 years, rice prices will increase again.
Rice price increases also depend on each segment and type of rice. With low-grade rice, India's increased sales will not increase rice prices. However, prices are forecast to increase for medium and high-grade rice.
Like fragrant rice, in the past month, the export price of this rice variety increased by about 50 USD/tonne, ST rice also recorded a fairly large price increase. The reason is due to demand in the markets, in which, China, the Middle East, the US, the EU... have many small orders. The combination of these orders has helped ST rice varieties increase in price.
Consider expanding acreage and maintaining the brand

- When high-end rice varieties and fragrant rice increase in price and are well received by the market, should we expand the planting area of these rice varieties, sir?

Mr. Nguyen Van Thanh: We should also be cautious about this. We need to consider the issue of brand and quality assurance.
As we know, in 2023, within framework of Global Rice Trade Conference held in Cebu, Philippines organized by Rice Trader, Ong Cua ST25 rice won first prize at the World's Best Rice Contest. The contest attracted the participation of more than 10 countries and 30 rice samples were submitted. This is the second time ST25 rice has been crowned the world's best rice at this prestigious contest. Previously, in 2019, also in the Philippines, ST25 rice of Labor Hero Ho Quang Cua also won the world's best rice prize. We have exported ST25 rice to a number of markets at prices up to 1,200 USD/tonne. Increased world demand has pushed up the price of ST25 rice. Vietnamese scientists and farmers have also grasped the demand and produced rice quality that meets the needs of world consumers. Therefore, I think we should continue to follow current models, such as shrimp rice, one-crop rice, etc.
Because if ST25 rice is grown in unsuitable areas or grown 2-3 crops, it is a different story. It is very likely that this will reduce the quality of ST25 rice. Consumers will think that ST rice is no longer delicious. Mass production will cause our rice brand to be lost. On other hand, if we grow a lot, it will lead to increased production and will lower the price of this rice. This means we lose the brand of high-priced rice.
Thank you!

Source: Vitic/ congthuong.vn