Small spoon, big tariff strategy
Few people imagine that something as small as fish feed can fluctuate greatly after tax decisions.
When taxes are high on Chinese agricultural products - especially soybeans, China focuses on importing to Brazil and Argentina. Domino effect then spread globally, pushing soybean prices skyrocketing on international exchanges, disrupting entire supply chain of aquatic feed ingredients. In Vietnam - the world's largest pangasius exporter, the pangasius feeding spoon - a symbol of input costs - suddenly became a strategic "link" in asymmetric competition. Farming costs increased, businesses lost their competitive advantage even in key export markets such as the US and the European Union (EU). In a world where any policy change can spread far and wide, it is necessary to take into account tight and vulnerable links of global value chain.
From soybean tax to pangasius price
In cost structure of pangasius farming - one of Vietnam's key seafood products, feed costs account for 55% to 65% of total costs, according to industry reports from Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) and Directorate of Fisheries. Main ingredients of this feed include fishmeal, soybean meal, fish oil and biological additives, most of which are imported from South America, China and the United States. Of which, soybean meal and marine fishmeal imported from Argentina, the United States and Peru play a particularly important role, not only providing a source of high-quality protein but also being able to partially replace fishmeal in the feed mix formula, helping to optimize production costs.
Dependence on imports makes Vietnam's seafood industry vulnerable to fluctuations in international market. According to Bloomberg (April 2025), price of soybean futures on CBOT floor exceeded 14.25 USD/bushel - an increase of 18% compared to the same period last year. At the same time, cost of shipping containers from South America to Asia increased by 25 - 30% due to conflicts in the Red Sea and congestion in Panama Canal. These factors caused cost of importing aquatic feed ingredients in Vietnam to increase by an average of 8 - 12% in just 6 months.
For small and medium-sized enterprises, escalating price of raw materials forced them to increase selling prices, reduce output or cut profit margins. As a result, cost of raising pangasius increased, causing product to gradually lose its competitiveness in key export markets such as the United States, the EU and the Middle East.
Situation of "decreasing profits, increasing costs" is creating double pressure on pangasius supply chain - both from outside with volatile global market and from inside with production system not yet capable of self-sufficient raw materials.
In that context, the US-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) offers prospect of access to modern aquaculture feed production technology and technical and financial support packages. Vietnam can take advantage of this channel to negotiate development of domestic soybean material areas in line with deep processing standards, gradually reducing import dependence.
More importantly, while Vietnam is promoting close bilateral trade relations with the US, it is necessary to put issue of anti-dumping tax on pangasius into bilateral trade negotiation program - as a strategic counter-condition. If imbalance in market access is not resolved, any effort to reduce input costs will hardly create a sustainable competitive advantage.
Vietnam Pangasius: Competitive Pressure
Vietnam continues to maintain its position as the world's largest pangasius exporter, with an estimated export turnover of about 1.8 billion USD in 2024, according to VASEP. Of which, the US market contributes more than 20%, playing role of one of three key markets alongside China and the EU.
However, this advantage is under increasing pressure from three sides: increasing input costs, rise of new competitors and increasing trade barriers in key markets.
According to SeafoodSource, the US Department of Commerce (DOC) continues to maintain anti-dumping duties on a number of Vietnamese enterprises, ranging from 0.18 USD/kg to 2.39 USD/kg, depending on results of each administrative review. These measures make signing of export contracts to the US unstable and reduce competitive advantage of Vietnamese enterprises.
In addition, average export price of pangasius to the US has recorded a decrease compared to previous year. Increasingly fierce competition from countries such as Ecuador, India and Russia - countries with lower production costs and more efficient logistics systems - is putting clear pressure on Vietnam's prices and market share.
On contrary, domestic pangasius production costs continue to escalate. As of early 2025, price of raw pangasius in the Mekong Delta had reached more than 32,000 VND/kg, a record high in many years. The main reason is sharp increase in feed costs, combined with higher electricity, water and domestic logistics costs than competitors. This narrows profit margins of processing and exporting enterprises.
VASEP's survey of pangasius enterprises shows that average gross profit margin has decreased sharply, many enterprises are forced to reduce processing capacity, postpone expanding farming areas or cut staff to maintain operations.
From an industry with natural advantages, Vietnamese pangasius is facing risk of losing momentum if there are no timely support policies to promote trade with focus and especially strategic tariff negotiations with major markets such as the United States.
Aquatic feed should be considered a strategic commodity
Aquatic feed is not only a simple production input, but also plays a key role in value chain of Vietnam's seafood exports. In context of international trade tensions, supply chain disruptions and rising global raw material prices, building self-sufficiency in raw materials and logistics for this industry has become an urgent industrial and commercial strategy.
Raw material reserves: Economic security thinking instead of situational response
Similar to national reserve for rice or gasoline, Vietnam needs to establish a strategic reserve mechanism for aquatic feed ingredients such as soybeans and fishmeal. According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Vietnam's soybean meal consumption is expected to reach 6.1 million tonnenes in the 2024/25 crop year, up from 5.85 million tonnenes in the previous crop year, due to increased demand from the livestock and aquaculture industries.
Raw material reserves should be linked to logistics system in key farming areas and major transit ports such as Cai Mep - Thi Vai, Can Tho and Nghi Son.
Developing domestic raw material areas: Policies need to guide private investment
Instead of relying solely on public investment, there needs to be a policy framework to attract large enterprises to invest in high-tech soybean growing areas in the Central Highlands and the Mekong Delta. According to the USDA report, Vietnam's soybean growing area has decreased as farmers have switched to more profitable crops such as fruits and vegetables.
Chain linkage models from breeding, planting, harvesting to processing need to be designed in direction of industry clusters, similar to successful cashew or pepper industries in the past. Green credit policies and corporate income tax exemptions in the first 5-10 years for projects in deep processing of animal feed materials need to be included in the action program for developing high-tech agriculture.
Bilateral trade: Using feed as a countervailing policy lever
Vietnam's participation in economic frameworks such as IPEF, RCEP and CPTPP is an opportunity for Ministry of Industry and Trade to include technical barriers and anti-dumping taxes in the negotiation roadmap. Reducing import tariffs on soybeans or supporting the transfer of feed processing technology should be considered as a mutual condition to expand the market share of Vietnamese seafood in the United States, the EU and CPTPP countries.
In particular, it is necessary to establish an early warning mechanism among regional chambers of commerce, including VCCI, VASEP and logistics associations, to monitor freight rates, raw material fluctuations and policy risks, thereby proactively regulating the market before a crisis occurs.
Thus, considering aquatic feed as a strategic commodity is not only an agricultural issue, but also the core of Vietnam's industrialization, modernization and international economic integration policy.

Source: Vitic/ congthuong.vn