In March 2025, live pig prices across Vietnam increased compared to February 2025, with surveyed prices in provinces and cities ranging from 68,000 to 83,000 VND/kg. Specifically:

At these prices, farmers are estimated to make a profit of 15,000 - 20,000 VND/kg. Vietnam's live hog price remains higher than neighboring countries such as China, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, and Myanmar (around 56,000 - 63,000 VND/kg) but lower than in the Philippines (100,000 - 115,000 VND/kg).
The price surge was mainly driven by disease outbreaks in the South during late 2024, which caused significant losses among breeding sows.

Domestic Supply: According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD), Vietnam’s pig herd reached 31.08 million heads in 2024, up 3.3% year-on-year. Pork output reached 5.16 million tons, an increase of 6.6%.
Projections for 2025 suggest pork production will exceed 5.4 million tons, a 5% rise compared to 2024.
However, due to typhoon Yagi and outbreaks of African swine fever and foot-and-mouth disease, some farms, especially in the North, have struggled to rebuild their herds.
Meanwhile, traders from the North are increasing shipments to the South, further tightening supply.

Imports: In January 2025, Vietnam imported approximately 74,450 tons of meat and meat products worth nearly USD 157 million, up 8.2% in volume and 13.4% in value compared to December 2024.
Key imported products include frozen poultry, fresh/frozen buffalo meat, and frozen by-products from pigs, buffaloes, and cattle. India remained the largest supplier, contributing 20.92% of the total imported volume, despite a 25.6% year-on-year decrease in quantity.
Frozen pork imports saw the most significant growth, reaching 12,600 tons (up 105% in volume and 149.1% in value compared to January 2024).
Russia accounted for 44.49% of frozen pork imports, followed by Brazil (40.87%), Spain, Germany, the Netherlands, and the U.S.
The average price for frozen pork imports was USD 2,672/ton, up 20.8% year-on-year.
The increase in imports was mainly due to the surge in domestic hog prices and the slower pace of herd rebuilding.

Exports: In January 2025, Vietnam exported about 1,200 tons of meat and meat products, worth USD 8.54 million, down 33.6% in volume and 9% in value compared to January 2024.
Vietnam's meat exports targeted 16 markets, with Hong Kong being the largest, accounting for 69.45% of the volume and 72.82% of the value.
The primary export product was frozen whole suckling pigs and frozen whole pigs.
Exports to other markets such as China, Belgium, France, Canada, the U.S., South Korea, Malaysia, and the Netherlands declined in both volume and value.
Pork (fresh, chilled, or frozen) made up 65.3% of the total export volume and 71.49% of the value.

Forecast
Short-term forecasts indicate that downward pressure on prices may continue until the end of March 2025.
A slight market recovery is expected in early April 2025, supported by increased demand during the Hung Kings' Commemoration Day and stocking activities by distribution agents.
Although prices are projected to dip slightly compared to February, they are likely to stay relatively high throughout Q2/2025 and settle around 70,000 VND/kg by the end of the year.

T.Huong

Source: Vitic