AsemconnectVietnam - The first months of 2025 witnessed a remarkable milestone for the Vietnamese coffee industry when export prices continuously set records, reaching more than 5,800 USD/ton - the highest level ever.

Although export output decreased, the value of turnover still increased sharply, helping Vietnam consolidate its position on the world coffee map. Faced with this trend, the Vietnamese coffee industry is facing a great opportunity to break through, expand the market and increase product value.
The first months of 2025 witnessed Vietnam's coffee export prices skyrocketing, setting new records. According to Vietnam Customs, in the first 2.5 months of the year, the average export price of coffee reached 5,614 USD/tonne, up by 73% compared to 3,228 USD/tonne in the same period of 2024. By mid-March, this figure continued to reach 5,803 USD/tonne, 74.5% higher than the same period last year. Compared to previous years, the current price is significantly higher.
In 2024, Vietnam's average export price of coffee reached 4,177 USD/tonne, which was a record high at that time. However, after only a few months of 2025, coffee prices continued to exceed it, marking a period of breakthrough growth for the industry. Although Vietnam's coffee export output in the first 2.5 months of 2025 only reached 406,637 tonnes, down by 18% year-on-year, thanks to high prices, the total export turnover reached 2.28 billion USD, up sharply by 41% compared to 1.6 billion USD of 2024.
This trend continued to be evident in the first 15 days of March of 2025, when export output reached only 93,898 tonnes, down by 7.4% year-on-year, but the total turnover increased by 54.2%, reaching 545 million USD. This showed that although export output tends to decrease, high prices have helped Vietnam maintain a positive revenue level, affirming its competitive advantage in the context of a global coffee market with a shortage of supply.
In addition to record prices, Vietnam's coffee export market has also become more vibrant than ever. Currently, Vietnam is exporting coffee to 36 major markets, many of which recorded strong growth in turnover. Germany continued to be Vietnam's largest coffee export market with a value of 278 million USD, up by 79% over the same period last year. Italy ranked second with 171 million USD, up by 31%. Japan, the United States and Spain also recorded growth of 56%, 53% and 29% respectively, bringing the total export turnover to these 5 markets in the first 2 months of 2025 to 815 million USD, accounting for 37% of Vietnam's total coffee export value.
In addition, some emerging markets also recorded strong growth. Coffee exports to South Africa increased dramatically by 5,166%, from 0.15 million USD to 7.9 million USD, while Mexico also recorded an increase of 2,147%, reaching 26.2 million USD.
In Europe, exports to France increased by 174% to 29.4 million USD, and to Poland by 213% to 33.7 million USD. In Southeast Asia, Malaysia, Thailand, the UK and Algeria all recorded increases of 60% to 100%. Notably, coffee exports to Laos increased by 100%, Cambodia by 168%, while Myanmar, Singapore and Indonesia showed signs of decline.
Factors driving up coffee prices
Vietnam's coffee export prices have continuously set records in the first months of 2025, reflecting strong fluctuations in the global coffee market. One of the main reasons for this strong price increase is the decline in supply from the world's two largest coffee exporting countries, Brazil and Vietnam. According to a report by the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Association (Cecafe), Brazil's green coffee exports in February of 2025 decreased by 12% compared to the same period last year, reaching only 3 million bags. Previously, the Brazilian crop forecasting agency (Conab) also assessed that the country's coffee output in 2025/26 could decrease by 4.4%, to a three-year low due to the impact of the El Niño phenomenon. Low rainfall since April last year has significantly reduced Brazil's coffee productivity. In Vietnam, coffee supply is also negatively affected by harsh weather conditions. A report by the weather forecasting agency in Dak Lak showed that the Central Highlands region - Vietnam's main coffee growing area - will continue to face hot weather and reduced rainfall in late March of 2025. This has raised concerns about a decline in production, leading to coffee prices remaining high.
Not only supply, but also global coffee consumption is also increasing strongly, especially in the European, North American and Asian markets. According to a report by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), world coffee prices in 2024 increased by 38.8% compared to the average level of 2023, mainly due to a shortage of supply from major producing countries. The organization also forecasts that if this trend continues, coffee prices may increase even more strongly in 2025.
In the United States, although there has been no move to increase taxes on imported coffee from the Americas, concerns about new trade policies have forced coffee businesses in North America to adjust their strategies to adapt to possible changes. In addition to supply and demand factors, the coffee market is also affected by speculative activities on commodity exchanges. On the New York floor, the price of Arabica coffee futures for May of 2025 reached 391.40 cents/pound (equivalent to 8,630 USD/tonne), the highest ever. Meanwhile, the price of Robusta coffee on the London floor also increased sharply to 5,515 USD/tonne. The investment capital flow into the coffee market in the context of high global inflation has contributed to pushing coffee prices to a record level.
The combination of many factors, from declining supply, strong consumption demand, unfavorable weather conditions to speculative activities in the market, has caused coffee prices to continuously increase. This trend is expected to continue in the coming time, bringing great opportunities for the Vietnamese coffee industry but at the same time posing challenges in ensuring sustainable supply.
High coffee prices open up great opportunities for the Vietnamese coffee industry as export value is pushed to a record level. Businesses can optimize profits, expand markets and improve their position on the world coffee map. In addition, the trend of consuming high-quality and sustainable coffee helps Vietnam promote a green production model, increasing the value of coffee beans.
CK
Source: VITIC/thitruongvietnam.vn