India has completely returned to the export market
Late on March 7 (local time), Indian government officially lifted a ban on 100% broken rice exports. The decision was made in response to record high inventories in early February 2025, nearly nine times the government's target, as well as growing international demand and signals a major shift in India's trade and food security strategy.
India's resumption of 100% broken rice exports will allow poor African countries to secure grain supplies at lower prices, while supporting Asian feed and ethanol producers that rely on this type of rice.
Previously, in September 2022, India issued a ban on 100% broken rice exports. Then, in July 2023, the world's largest rice supplier banned exports of non-basmati white rice to ensure stable domestic supply and prices. A month later, India imposed a 20% export tax on parboiled rice (rice obtained by soaking paddy in hot water or steaming and then drying). These moves pushed Asian rice prices to a 15-year high in August 2023 from around $450 a tonne to a peak of $700 a tonne for 5% broken rice. More than a year after the ban on exporting non-basmati white rice and imposing a 20% export tax on parboiled rice, on September 28, 2024, Indian Government suspended the ban on exporting non-basmati white rice and at the same time, the country also reduced export tax on brown rice and parboiled rice from 20% to 10%, the world rice market gradually entered a cycle of price reduction.
Accordingly, the sharpest decrease was recorded from around end of 2024, the beginning of 2025 until now. In particular, 5% broken rice of Vietnam and Thailand has decreased by 38 - 45%. For Vietnam, price of 5% broken rice has decreased from 680 - 700 USD/tonne and has now dropped sharply to 390 - 400 USD/tonne. This is an unprecedented large decrease.
India accounts for about 40% of global rice trade and exports rice to about 150 countries. With lifting of the ban on 100% broken rice exports on March 7, 2025, Indian market has completely returned to the export market.
Industry experts say that, along with increasing world rice supply, decreasing import demand and lack of signs of recovery in the short term will continue to put pressure on global market.
Some opinions also say that even if India has not lifted the export ban, rice prices are expected to continue to decrease. Reason is that global rice, wheat and corn markets are in a state of oversupply. At the same time, it is forecasted that in the next two years, grain market will experience a period of oversupply and low prices.
Vietnamese rice does not compete directly with Indian rice
Talking to a reporter from Industry and Trade Newspaper, Mr. Do Ha Nam - Vice President of Vietnam Food Association (VFA) - said that Indian rice varieties are different from those of Vietnam. Indian rice is mainly low-grade rice and exported to African markets. Meanwhile, in Vietnam, most of acreage has been converted by farmers to grow high-quality rice varieties and exported to key markets such as the Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia.
“Domestic rice prices and export rice prices have continuously decreased since beginning of 2025, making Vietnam one of the cheapest sources of supply. However, 80% of exported rice is high-quality rice, not directly competing with India's 100% broken rice. However, pressure from India's large supply can still affect prices, especially in low-grade rice segment,” a representative of the VFA informed.
Previously, speaking to the press, Mr. Phung Duc Tien - Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Environment - also stated that Vietnamese rice is mainly exported to countries in Asian region such as the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, China, Singapore; meanwhile, Indian rice is mainly exported to countries in the African and Middle Eastern regions. It can be seen that the export markets and rice segments of Vietnam and India are very different.
Vietnam is entering the largest rice harvest of the year - Winter-Spring crop. On export side, it is said that with India's complete return to the global rice market, Vietnamese rice will also face fiercer competition. Abundant output thanks to favorable weather, therefore, rice prices are unlikely to return to 500 USD per tonne. Exporters will also have to be more cautious in purchasing due to the constantly fluctuating market and slowing exports.
In response to developments in rice market, Ministry of Agriculture and Environment said it would direct localities in Mekong Delta to ensure production output and acreage according to the set plan, focusing on producing and harvesting winter-spring rice on time; closely monitoring the crop calendar and drought and salinity situation to limit impacts on rice production.
At the same time, continue to direct and coordinate with localities in implementing the Project on Developing 1 million hectares of high-quality rice in the Mekong Delta. Strengthen promotion, trade promotion, export promotion, research on import-export policies of other countries, create conditions to open markets for exporting Vietnamese rice and agricultural products internationally.
On part of ministries, branches and localities, closely monitor market developments to have appropriate response solutions, coordinate with ministries, branches and localities to closely monitor the world rice market; grasp demand for rice in markets with room for growth such as the United States, EU, Africa... to have adjustments to production and export plans in line with market developments.
Regarding long-term solutions, Ministry of Agriculture and Environment believes that it is necessary to research and organize production according to market demand and place orders with businesses. On basis of general management of production, localities proactively adjust crop structure according to local characteristics to ensure favorable conditions for production and purchasing, processing, and exporting activities...

Source: Vitic/ congthuong.vn