Pressure from increasing rice supply in the world
According to data from the US Department of Agriculture, in just the first 2 months of 2025, supply to the world rice market reached a record 532.7 million tonnes. Main reason is that India - the world's largest rice exporter - has lifted its export ban. This has created fierce competitive pressure, especially in low-quality rice segment, thereby directly affecting major rice exporting countries such as Vietnam and Thailand.
According to Mr. Nguyen Van Thanh, Director of Phuoc Thanh IV Production - Trading Company Limited, a rice export enterprise, shared: "Return of Indian rice is like an earthquake, especially in the white rice segment, which is their strength and also our main product. However, I believe that this impact is only temporary, because 80% of Vietnam's rice exports are in the high-quality segment".
According to data from Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, in the first two months of 2025, Vietnam exported 1.1 million tonnes of rice, up 5.9% over the same period last year. However, export value only reached 613 million USD, down 13%. This shows that average export price of Vietnamese rice has decreased significantly, clearly reflecting competitive pressure from India.
Not only facing competitive pressure on prices, Vietnamese rice industry also has to adapt to increasingly stringent requirements from international market. Major markets such as the EU and the US require products to meet standards on sustainable development, emission reduction and traceability.
"This is an inevitable trend of the market and we cannot stand aside," said Ms. Le Thi Huong, a rice industry expert.
"However, transition from traditional production to green, smart production requires large investment costs and a change in farmers' thinking. Along with that, 1 million hectare high-quality, low-emission rice project in the Mekong Delta is a step in the right direction, but requires more drastic investment and implementation," Ms. Huong emphasized.
Enterprises need to proactively seek niche markets
In difficult context, there are still positive signals for the Vietnamese rice industry. White rice, which accounts for majority of market share (71%), is targeting mass markets such as the Philippines, Indonesia and Africa, with competitive prices. Meanwhile, premium fragrant rice varieties such as Jasmine, ST24, ST25 (19% market share) are conquering demanding markets such as the EU, the US and Japan, where value is paramount. This diversity, along with demand from China (5-6 million tonnes/year) and the Philippines (4.5-4.7 million tonnes) expected to increase from the second quarter of 2025, are also factors supporting recovery of Vietnamese rice prices.
"We believe that, with quality of fragrant rice and specialty rice that has been affirmed in international market, Vietnam still has many opportunities to maintain and expand its market share in high-end markets," Mr. Nguyen Van Thanh added.
According to rice industry expert Le Thi Huong, diversifying export markets, focusing on niche markets and building a high-quality Vietnamese rice brand is the key to improving the industry's competitiveness.
"To overcome challenges and take advantage of opportunities, Vietnamese rice industry needs to have synchronous solutions. First of all, it is necessary to promote production restructuring, improve product quality and added value. Second, it is necessary to strengthen trade promotion, expand export markets, especially niche markets. Third, there is a need for effective support policies for farmers and businesses, helping them access capital, technology and markets," Ms. Huong analyzed.
Mr. Nguyen Ngoc Nam, Chairman of Vietnam Food Association (VFA), said that in 2023, Vietnam exported over 8 million tonnes and in 2024, it reached about 9 million tonnes. This affirms that Vietnamese enterprises have proactively sought markets and produced commercial rice, so there is no concern about consumption.

Source: Vitic/ congthuong.vn