Export volume of fragrant rice and specialty rice accounts for nearly 25%
According to report of Department of Quality, Processing and Market Development (Ministry of Agriculture and Environment), in the first 2 months of 2025, the country's rice export volume is estimated at 1.1 million tons (up 5.9%), value is 613 million USD (down 13.6%). The average rice export price is estimated at 553.6 USD/ton, down 18.3% over the same period last year.
In the first days of March 2025, export price of rice is at: 100% broken rice 310 USD/tonne; 5% broken rice 393 USD/tonne; 25% broken rice 367 USD/tonne.
In terms of varieties, white rice accounts for about 71% of total export volume, average export price of white rice is 523 - 540 USD/tonne, in which the main export markets are the Philippines, Indonesia and Africa.
High-quality fragrant rice varieties such as Jasmine, Dai Thom, ST24, ST25 account for only 19% of total rice export volume, average export price of fragrant rice is about 640 - 700 USD/tonne. The main export markets are the EU, the United States, China and Japan.
Glutinous rice accounts for 6% of total export volume, in which the main export markets are China, the Philippines and some other Southeast Asian countries. In addition, Japonica rice and other specialty rice account for 4% of total export volume, the main export markets are Japan, Korea and other high-end markets.
Regarding the rice import market, in 2024, the Philippines was Vietnam's largest import market with a market share of 46.1% in 2024, a value increase of 48.9% compared to 2023, a volume of about 2.91 million tonnes, mainly white rice and a small part of fragrant rice.
Indonesia and Malaysia are the next two largest markets with respective market shares of 13.2% (value increase of 16.6%) and 7.5% (value increase of 2.1 times). China is also a large rice import market with a volume of 1 million tonnes in 2024 but a sharp decrease compared to the previous year (68.45). The EU and the United States are two markets importing high-quality rice such as specialty fragrant rice ST24, ST25 with a small market share of about 0.5-0.6%/year.
In early March 2025, the price of IR504 raw rice was commonly at 8,000 - 8,100 VND/kg; the price of finished rice was commonly at 9,500 - 9,700 VND/kg; long-grain fragrant rice was commonly at 20,000 - 22,000 VND/kg; common white rice was 17,000 - 21,000 VND/kg; broken rice 7,100 - 7,300 VND/kg
According to reporter of Cong Thuong Newspaper, at traditional markets in Hanoi, prices of rice varieties such as Bac Huong, Tam Hai Hau, Tam Dien Bien and Thai Do are still maintained at 19,000 to 20,000 VND/kg, while some specialty rice varieties such as Seng Cu and ST24, ST25 are still maintained at 23,000 VND/kg and 38,000 VND/kg, respectively.
Global rice trade is expected to reach 58.5 million tonnes
According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), global rice production in 2024/2025 is expected to reach a record high of 533.7 million tonnes (milled rice), an increase of 11 million tonnes compared to the previous year.
Global supply is forecast to reach 712.8 million tonnes (an increase of 9.5 million tonnes). Global consumption is forecast to be high at 530.3 million tonnes, up 6.2 million tonnes compared to 2024, thanks to increased consumption in countries such as India and the Philippines.
Ending reserves are estimated at 182.5 million tonnes, up 3.4 million tonnes compared to the previous year (India and China account for 81% of global reserves). Global trade is expected to reach 58.5 million tonnes with strong demand from major markets such as the Philippines and Indonesia.
Mr. Ngo Hong Phong - Department of Quality, Processing and Market Development - commented that global rice import demand is still likely to remain high; the advantage of fragrant and high-quality rice is favored in high-end markets such as the EU, the United States, and Japan; ... is an advantage for Vietnamese rice. In addition, free trade agreements, along with production support policies such as restructuring production, and domestic supply basically ensure favorable conditions for Vietnamese rice exports.
However, India's lifting of the ban on white rice exports from September 2024 has put great pressure on other exporting countries, especially low-grade white rice; cheap rice from Pakistan and Myanmar continues to dominate price-sensitive markets such as Africa and the Middle East; Thai fragrant rice still maintains its premium position, putting competitive pressure in the high-quality rice segment.
In addition, barriers from import standards from demanding markets such as the EU, Japan, and the United States; risks from import policies of some major markets that may adjust import policies, such as tax reduction or subsidies for domestic rice, reducing the competitiveness of Vietnamese rice; ...
In the first 2 months of this year, Vietnam exported 1.15 million tonnes of rice, of which Philippine market accounted for over 505,000 tonnes. Regarding this largest rice export market of Vietnam, Mr. Phung Van Thanh - Trade Counselor, Vietnam Trade Office in the Philippines - said that if in 2023, the Philippines' domestic rice production exceeded 20 million tonnes for the first time, reaching 20.06 million tonnes, then in 2024, due to the impact of natural disasters, storms, floods, etc., the Philippines' domestic rice output will only reach 19.3 million tonnes.
At the same time, according to some sources, the Philippines' rice imports in 2024 will increase sharply to a record 4.68 million tonnes, while in previous years they were only below 4 million tonnes. In context that the Philippines cannot increase domestic production overnight, rice is still an important commodity and the Philippines' rice import demand in 2025 will still reach 4.8 million tonnes to 5.0 million tonnes. The Philippine market continues to be an opportunity for Vietnam's rice exports.

Source: Vitic/ congthuong.vn