Many positive signals
On February 18, 2024, Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers said that Vietnamese pangasius industry expects to increase output, export volume and value by 2025, thanks to attractive prices and new world trade context.
The United States and China are currently the top 2 markets importing the most Vietnamese pangasius. According to statistics, in December 2024 alone, pangasius exports to the US reached nearly 28 million USD, an increase of 40% compared to December 2023. Accumulated for the whole year of 2024, pangasius exports to the United States bring in 345 million USD, an increase of 27% compared to 2023.
Experts say that in 2025, it is very likely that the US's imports of Vietnamese pangasius skyrocket when the two sides have signed a bilateral agreement on removing anti-dumping tax on fillets exported from Vietnam.
Along with that, the US's implementation of WTO ruling opens up great opportunities for more stable exports of Vietnamese pangasius to this market. This also contributes significantly to demonstrating the goodwill to strengthen multifaceted relationship between Vietnam and the United States, especially in context of two countries upgrading their Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.
Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers recommends that to increase production by 2025, Vietnam needs to focus on many aspects, including breeding programs to select and improve quality of pangasius broodstock focusing on traits such as salinity tolerance and disease resistance, to provide healthy fry that can adapt to changing climate conditions and improve their ability to resist disease.
Expect 5-10% growth
In new global trade context, Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers also noted that Indonesia, India and China are currently increasing their pangasius production and processing capacity.
Although their product quality may not yet match Vietnam's consistency, they are penetrating specific market segments through competitive price strategies. This puts increasing pressure on Vietnam's market share, especially in major export destinations such as the US, EU, Japan and Gulf Cooperation Council.
Currently, Vietnamese pangasius accounts for 42% of global pangasius production, while India, China and Bangladesh contribute between 15% and 21%.
China is the largest market for Vietnamese pangasius, however, since 2023, Hainan Xiangtai Fishery, one of China's largest tilapia exporters, has announced its active participation in the pangasius supply chain to meet growing domestic demand. India's production is increasing, but the fish are generally small in size, mainly serving the domestic market. In contrast, Indonesia, despite its lower production, has successfully exported to the Middle East under its own brand and is building its reputation.
China could well import more pangasius and tilapia into its domestic market by 2025 if the US’s 10% additional tariff on all Chinese goods remains in place. In 2018, these products were subject to a 25% tariff, making tilapia imports about 20% more expensive than pangasius by 2023.
Experts say pangasius exports could benefit from the higher US tariff on Chinese tilapia. Exporters appear to see it that way, with many companies already processing or considering tilapia.
Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers forecasts that while competing products from Russia and China face unfavorable factors, pangasius exports could increase by 5-10% by 2025.
"The above growth may come from reasons such as: Better consumer confidence. Along with that are factors from new developments in world trade, the Vietnam - UAE Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement signed in 2024 will create opportunities for Vietnamese seafood to increase exports to the UAE market. The US anti-dumping tax on Vietnamese pangasius is lower than that of other countries. Price of aquatic feed is on a downward trend," said Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers.

Source: Vitic/ congthuong.vn