According to the Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade), despite Vietnam being in the harvest season, domestic Robusta coffee prices have risen sharply in line with the global coffee price surge, fluctuating between 127,500 and 128,200 VND/kg. Coffee has been the most significant agricultural product in terms of price growth among Vietnam’s key export commodities. In the first 11 months of 2024, the average export price of Vietnamese coffee was estimated at 4,838 USD per tonne, up 56.9% compared to the same period in 2023. Currently, Vietnam is the world’s second-largest coffee exporter, following Brazil. Towards the end of 2024, global coffee prices continue to rise due to increased investor purchases and concerns about supply disruptions.

In Brazil, coffee producers are holding back supplies, anticipating higher prices. Additionally, ongoing drought forecasts in Brazil’s main Arabica coffee-growing regions have pushed Arabica prices higher. Meanwhile, in Vietnam, unfavourable weather conditions have recently affected key coffee-growing regions, posing risks of supply disruptions for Robusta coffee. Slow exports from Vietnam have further tightened the global coffee market.

With rising export prices and supply advantages, Vietnamese coffee is well-positioned to shift its status on the global market. Moreover, Vietnam’s coffee export markets are becoming increasingly diversified, with key destinations including the European Union, ASEAN countries, the Republic of Korea, the United States, Australia, and others.

In the EU, Germany is one of Vietnam’s largest coffee importers. According to data from the International Trade Centre (ITC), in the first eight months of 2024, Germany imported 945,800 tonnes of coffee from around the world, valued at 4.33 billion USD, an increase of 7.1% in volume and 13.3% in value compared to the same period in 2023. The average import price of coffee from Vietnam to Germany rose significantly by 46.6% year-on-year to 3,592 USD per tonne. In the same period, Vietnam was Germany’s second-largest coffee supplier, after Brazil, with 184,000 tonnes worth 661.1 million USD, a 0.6% decrease in volume but a 45.6% increase in value compared to 2023.

For the Australian market, the average coffee import price in the first nine months of 2024 reached 5,862 USD per tonne, up 1.2% compared to the same period in 2023. Specifically, the average import price of coffee from Vietnam surged 48.1% year-on-year to 3,674 USD per tonne. Vietnam’s share of Australia’s total coffee imports increased from 11.85% in the first nine months of 2023 to 15.29% during the same period in 2024. During this time, Vietnam was Australia’s second-largest coffee supplier. Average coffee consumption in Australia is expected to reach 2.96 kg per person in 2024. From 2024 to 2032, Australia’s coffee market is forecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 3.6%. The rise of e-commerce is also contributing to increased coffee consumption in Australia.

Vietnam must lead in production volume and continually improve coffee quality to dominate the global market. As a pioneer in sustainable coffee production and export, Nguyen Tien Dung, Director of Sustainable Agriculture Development at Simexco Daklak, shared that the company is committed to a “farmer-first” approach. Simexco has built a sustainable supply chain model from farm to consumer and launched numerous sustainability programmes to integrate economic, environmental, and social values. Recently, the company became the only one in Vietnam to earn the National Brand award for its “green coffee beans” products, focusing on speciality coffee like Fine Robusta, helping elevate the value of Vietnamese green coffee.

To boost export turnover, it is essential to address market-specific preferences and requirements. In Australia, for instance, certified organic coffee is gaining popularity for its health benefits and eco-friendly production, with consumers willing to pay a premium for organic coffee. Therefore, Vietnamese enterprises need to focus on high-quality and speciality coffee products to expand exports to Australia. The EU's coffee industry must devise a roadmap to comply with the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR).