The US is Vietnam's largest export market
According to preliminary data from General Department of Customs, in the first 11 months of 2024, the US was Vietnam's largest export market with a turnover of 108.9 billion USD, up 23.9%; in opposite direction, imports from the US reached 13.5 billion USD, up 7.3%. With this implementation level, total two-way turnover between Vietnam and the US is approximately 123 billion USD, trade balance is in favor of Vietnam with a trade surplus of 95.4 billion USD, up 26.7% over the same period last year.
Department of European and American Markets (Ministry of Industry and Trade) - said that Vietnam is currently the 8th largest trading partner of the United States, the fourth largest export market of the United States in the ASEAN region. In contrast, the United States is the second largest trading partner and the largest export market of Vietnam.
Some items in the Top 15 exports of Vietnam with good growth turnover (over 20%) are: wooden furniture; machinery, optical equipment, medical measurement; office machines, printers; hand-held tools, hydraulic pneumatics; footwear; rubber and rubber products; plastics and plastic products; iron and steel.
In opposite direction, some imported items from the United States with high growth rates (over 20%) are: machinery, electronic equipment; animal feed, food waste; plastics and plastic products; edible fruits and nuts; meat. With current rate of goods exchange, by 2024, Vietnam - US trade is expected to exceed 134 billion USD.
In the first 11 months of 2024, wood and wood product exports to the US market accounted for 56% of total export turnover, reaching nearly 9 billion USD and imports from this market reached over 230 million USD. Thus, in the US market alone, Vietnamese wood industry had a trade surplus of about 8.8 billion USD. This shows that the US is the main and most important market for the Vietnamese wood industry.
Mr. Do Xuan Lap - Chairman of Vietnam Timber and Forest Products Association - assessed that the US market may have very big changes in the near future. These changes may be created by new tax policy applied by the US Government to imported goods in the future.
China, Mexico and Vietnam are the 3 countries with the largest trade surplus with the US, respectively. The US government is expected to impose a 60% tariff on all goods imported from China and 15-20% on goods imported from other countries. With upcoming policy change of the US market under administration of President Donald Trump, Vietnam in general and the wood industry in particular can benefit from high tariffs imposed by the US on goods from China.
However, if import and investment from China to Vietnam are not well controlled, Vietnam may suffer negative impacts. In addition, the US may also apply new tariffs on goods from Vietnam, including wood products. This will cause difficulties in exports and impact production.
Assessing potential for increased exports to the United States of Vietnamese wood industry, however, Mr. Huynh The Du - Lecturer, Manager of Public Policy and Environment Program, Indiana University (USA) - said that Vietnam needs to especially avoid case of being subject to higher taxes than other countries besides China. Wood industry needs to pay attention to ensuring issues of legal wood origin and environmental protection. Exporting enterprises need to adapt to new requirements from US policies, increase investment in technology, innovation, improve product quality and comply with international law. "There is still some doubt about the risk when Mr. Donald Trump is re-elected as President of the United States, when this billionaire will impose high taxes on global trade in general and especially policies towards China" - Dr. Nguyen Quoc Viet - Deputy Director of the Vietnam Institute for Economic and Policy Research (VEPR) - commented and said that from the second half of 2025, if Mr. Donald Trump fulfills his promises to tighten trade and investment to bring production back to the United States, we will see foreign capital flows, especially indirect capital flows, begin to retreat to return to the United States.
Therefore, can trade flows plus investment flows continue to spread to prevent trade risks to ASEAN countries, including Vietnam? This still needs to be calculated?
According to Dr. Nguyen Quoc Viet, Vietnam is still threatened by being targeted to avoid manufacturers or exports related to US-China tensions. In fact, we have had some items targeted, so growth potential of technology items, including some items related to new energy products such as solar panels, is not easy for us to promote strongly anymore.
And recommendations for businesses
Looking at it from a more positive perspective, according to Mr. Do Ngoc Hung - Commercial Counselor, Head of Vietnam Trade Office in the United States, Vietnamese goods are increasingly popular in the US market due to their continuously improved quality, updated trends and competitive prices. On the other hand, changes in supply chain as well as wave of investment shifts have contributed to enhancing the production capacity of Vietnamese enterprises. This creates opportunities and room for Vietnamese goods to increase exports to the world in general and the US market in particular.
The United States is Vietnam's largest export market, Vietnam is the 8th largest trading partner of the United States. However, Mr. Do Ngoc said that Vietnam needs to have appropriate measures to effectively implement Action Plan towards a harmonious and sustainable trade balance between Vietnam and the United States.
“Traditional industries such as textiles, footwear, wood and wood products, agriculture ... serving consumer demand still maintain a stable growth rate, other industries also take advantage of opportunities to export to the United States, while paying attention to possibility of lawsuits that may occur” - Mr. Do Ngoc Hung noted.
Dr. Nguyen Manh Quyen - Head of Vietnam Trade Office in Houston, Texas (USA) - recommended that business community pay attention to policy mechanisms that change in the coming time, in which, seize advantages to improve competitiveness in the leading important markets of Vietnamese goods such as the United States.
For Vietnamese wood industry, according to Dr. To Xuan Phuc - Policy analyst of Forest Trends, it is necessary to promote cooperation and dialogue, along with that, there needs to be close coordination between businesses, associations and state agencies to find solutions to promptly respond to the US's trade protection policies. In particular, certification of origin (CO) is an important tool against trade fraud.
In addition, wood industry needs to increase product value; focusing on producing high value-added items such as kitchen furniture, chairs, and other wooden furniture to meet market trends. To prepare for trade risks, businesses need to be ready to respond to anti-dumping investigations or trade defense measures from the United States, through enhancing legal capacity and improving risk management.

Source: Vitic/ congthuong.vn