Prior to this, European importers, Vietnam's largest coffee market, had increased imports due to concerns about potential supply shortages and price hikes post-December 30, 2024, when many shipments might not comply with the EUDR. Additionally, batches of coffee with EUDR-compliant documentation were previously purchased at higher prices. However, with the postponement of the EUDR, buyers have renegotiated prices. According to Vietnam's General Department of Customs, in September 2024, Vietnam's coffee exports to the EU reached 19,000 tonnes, worth over $102.8 million, marking a 40% decrease in volume and a 35% decrease in value compared to the previous month. However, compared to the same period last year, there was still a 28% increase in volume and a 135.6% increase in value. In the first nine months of 2024, Vietnam's coffee exports to the EU reached approximately 440,000 tonnes, worth $1,641.8 million, representing an 8% decrease in volume but a 48% increase in value compared to the same period in 2023. Coffee exports to the EU accounted for 36% of Vietnam's total coffee export value in both September and the first nine months of the year.

Product group	September 2024			9M of 2024
	Turnover (USD)	Month- on- month (%)	Year-on-year (%)	Turnover (USD)	Year-on-year  (%)
Total coffee exports of Vietnam	286,936,878	-28.66	+70.14	4,311,722,644	+37.78
Coffee exports to the EU	103,256,756	-36	+131	1,641,816,742	+45.28
EU's share in Vietnam's total textile and garment exports (%)	36			38

The average export price of Vietnamese coffee to the EU in September 2024 reached $5,585.8 per tonnene, up 5.8% compared to August 2024 and 69% compared to September 2023. In the first nine months of the year, the average export price reached $3,896 per tonne, a 56% increase year-on-year.

Vietnam has officially entered the coffee harvest season since October 2024, with peak harvests expected in November and December 2024, and some regions extending into January 2025. Vietnam's entry into the harvest season, supplementing the coffee supply to the market, is also one of the factors causing coffee prices to cool down.

Among the world's major coffee suppliers, only Vietnam suffered a double-digit decline in production last season. Moreover, forecasts indicate that Vietnam's coffee production in the upcoming season will continue to decline due to the drought at the beginning of the year and the reduction in planting area as farmers choose other crops with higher economic efficiency.

According to the Vietnam Coffee-Cocoa Association (VICOFA), Vietnam's coffee production in the 2023-2024 crop year is estimated to decrease by 20% year-on-year to 1.47 million tonnes, the lowest in four years, putting pressure on the global Robusta supply.

Since October 1, 2024, Vietnam has entered the new coffee crop, and many growers, dealers, and even exporters have sold less. The main reason is the sluggish domestic market transactions due to the rapid decline in futures prices (from October 1 to October 25, 2024, it decreased by about $800 per tonne). The sharp decline in futures prices has affected domestic coffee prices, thus reducing purchasing demand. Secondly, the transportation of Vietnamese coffee to Europe (the largest importer of Vietnamese Robusta coffee) has been blocked in the Red Sea. Thirdly, and more importantly, is the EU's Deforestation Regulation (EUDR). The delay in applying EUDR has led to importers buying large quantities of coffee and now actively selling, causing coffee prices to decline. Fourthly, hedge funds have been selling due to the strengthening of the US dollar.

According to calculations from data of the Vietnam General Department of Customs, in September 2024, Vietnam's coffee exports to most EU markets decreased sharply. Coffee exports to Germany decreased by 81% compared to the previous month. Exports to Sweden decreased by 90%, while exports to the Czech Republic and Romania decreased by 80% compared to the previous month.

Spain emerged as Vietnam's largest coffee importer this month. Coffee exports to Spain reached $34.1 million (equivalent to 5.7 thousand tonnes), up 5.5% in value and 6% in volume compared to August 2024 and up 83.28% in volume and 179.62% in value compared to the same period in 2023, accounting for 33% of the total export value of coffee from Vietnam to the EU market. The export price reached an average of $5,909.8 per tonne, up 5.4% compared to the same period last year. In the first nine months of this year, coffee exports to this country reached 83,236 thousand tonnes, valued at $339.3 million, up 20.48% in volume and 88.15% in value compared to the same period last year. The export price during this period reached an average of $4,076 per tonne, up 56% compared to the same period last year.

Ranking second is Italy with $22.1 million (equivalent to 4.3 thousand tonnes), down 38% in value and up 46% in volume compared to August 2024 and up 10% in volume and 125.15% in value compared to the same period in 2023, accounting for 21% of the total export value of coffee from Vietnam to the EU market. The export price reached an average of $5,136 per tonne, up 15% compared to the same period last year. In the first nine months of this year, coffee exports to this country reached 103,392 thousand tonnes, worth $353.4 million, down 12.27% in volume and up 35% in value compared to the same period last year. The export price during this period reached an average of $3,418 per tonne, up 54% compared to the same period last year.

Third is Poland with $8.95 million (equivalent to 1 thousand tonnes), up 52% in value and 46% in volume compared to August 2024 and up 51% in volume and 52% in value compared to the same period in 2023, accounting for 9% of the total export value of coffee from Vietnam to the EU market. The export price reached an average of $8,798 per tonne, up 0.82% compared to the same period last year. In the first nine months of this year, coffee exports to this country reached 9,119 thousand tonnes, valued at $57.6 million, down 21% in volume but up 50% in value compared to the same period last year. The export price during this period reached an average of $6,326 per tonne, up 90% compared to the same period last year.

It is noteworthy that coffee exports to the Polish market alone increased by 53% with a record high export price, increasing by 84% compared to the same period last year.

T.Huong

Source: Vitic