AsemconnectVietnam - According to Yuanta Securities Company, from now until the end of the year, there are many favorable macro factors for Vietnam's import and export to recover and accelerate.

Many industries will benefit from this momentum such as rubber, textiles, seafood, seascapes, etc.
Yuanta Securities experts said that exports are expected to continue to recover as the economies of Vietnam's important trading partners are forecast to grow.
According to a report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the GDP of most of Vietnam's major trading partners is forecast to have higher growth rates than last year. In particular, the GDP growth of the US - Vietnam's largest export market - is expected to reach 2.6%, while China's GDP is forecast to increase by 5%. In addition, the GDP of the Euro zone is also forecast to increase by 0.9%.
Citing the accumulated data for the first 8 months of 2024, the total import-export turnover reached 511.11 billion USD (up by 17.1%), with a trade surplus of 19.07 billion USD, Yuanta commented that import-export is continuing to recover, businesses are expanding new customers in the Asian region (Japan, South Korea, India), European and American markets are also starting to show more positive signs.
Along with that, the cooling of sea freight rates due to the number of ships delivered in 2024 will increase capacity, thereby putting pressure on ship charter rates to no longer be high. The reduction in sea freight rates will eliminate the factor hindering the recent growth of import-export.
At the same time, the US Federal Reserve (Fed)'s interest rate cut is a catalyst for the second half of 2024 to 2025. This will boost economic recovery as well as consumer demand in the US in particular and other countries in general, which is the driving force for Vietnam's exports from the second half of 2024 to 2025.
Evaluating opportunities for specific industries, Yuanta Securities experts said that for the rubber industry, supply has recently been gradually tightening as heavy rains have affected rubber exploitation in Southeast Asian countries, which has partly supported the world's natural rubber prices in general to maintain recovery momentum.
Domestic rubber enterprises will benefit from price increases in the world market. Vietnam's rubber exports continue to depend largely on China's tire production demand. Currently, China's tire industry accounts for about 30% of the total global automobile production.
For the textile and garment industry, many enterprises' export orders continue to be filled as the political tension in Bangladesh is showing signs of cooling down. However, the formation of a new government will take a long time to stabilize, which will cause garment enterprises to transfer part of their orders to other countries to minimize risks and it is expected that Vietnam will benefit from the transfer of orders from Bangladesh. Meanwhile, US garment inventories are still low compared to 2022.
One of the industries that Yuanta also assessed will benefit from the improvement in import and export activities is the seaport industry. Accordingly, the seaport industry is on the path to recovery as the volume of goods cleared through ports gradually increases, in the first half of 2024, import turnover by sea increased by 14%, while exports increased sharply by 23%.
"The US is one of Vietnam's key trading partners, with containerized goods exported by sea to this market accounting for about 35% of the value. The Fed has now cut interest rates by 0.5% to boost consumption, helping businesses boldly increase inventories in the future. We expect the above factors to boost the throughput of goods through southern port clusters,” Yuanta Securities experts emphasized.
In addition, trade with China is increasingly vibrant thanks to positive signs of domestic production demand, and the need to import raw materials and machinery to serve new orders from the US and EU.
According to Circular 39/2023/TT-BGTVT effective from February 15, 2024, the price range for loading and unloading import and export containers will be increased by 10% compared to before. This will support profit margins for port businesses.
CK
Source: VITIC/ haiquanonline.com.vn