Export growth in both markets and products
According to data from General Department of Customs, by the end of August 2024, total export turnover of goods nationwide reached 265.44 billion USD, an increase of 15.9% over the same period last year. Notably, there were 10 groups of goods that increased by over 1 billion USD compared to the same period last year, bringing export turnover to 29.72 billion USD compared to the same period last year, accounting for 81.5% of increase in the country's export turnover.
Regarding export markets, updated at the end of August, the 10 largest markets all grew strongly. Of which, 6 markets increased by 1 billion USD or more, including: the United States reached 78.2 billion USD, an increase of 16.08 billion USD; EU reached 34.08 billion USD, an increase of 5.08 billion USD; China reached 38.1 billion USD, an increase of 1.7 billion USD; ASEAN reached 24.45 billion USD, an increase of 2.84 billion USD; South Korea reached 16.83 billion USD, an increase of 1.3 billion USD; Hong Kong (China) reached 8.1 billion USD, an increase of 2.27 billion USD. Textiles and garments are one of items with an export turnover of over 10 billion USD. Mr. Le Tien Truong - Chairman of Board of Directors of Vietnam National Textile and Garment Group - said that after 8 months of 2024, textile and garment industry's export turnover reached 28.6 billion USD, an increase of nearly 7.2% over the same period.
Notably, export turnover in August reached 4.66 billion USD, an increase of 14.6% over the same period. This is also the month with the highest export turnover ever. With signed orders in the third quarter and orders under discussion in the fourth quarter, there is much hope for possibility of reaching a target of 44 billion USD in export turnover this year, achieving the high target set at the beginning of the year for entire industry.
Ms. Phan Thi Thanh Xuan - Vice President and General Secretary of Vietnam Leather, Footwear and Handbag Association - informed that in the first 8 months of 2024, leather and footwear exports grew, with an increase of more than 10%, many markets are recovering. With current recovery rate, leather and footwear exports are expected to reach about 27 billion USD this year.
On side of Ministry of Industry and Trade, Mr. Tran Thanh Hai - Deputy Director of Import-Export Department said that import-export activities achieved good growth due to more positive developments in international and domestic context. Specifically, the world economic situation is more positive when the US Federal Reserve (FED) has proposed a roadmap to cut interest rates after a long period.
In addition, problem of high inventories in markets is gradually being overcome, especially in key export markets that have encountered difficulties in 2023 such as EU and the United States. For the United States, recovering consumer indicators have become an important supporting factor for economic growth.
In addition, Vietnam has just upgraded its relationship to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with the United States, promising sustainable development for trade relations between two countries. Domestically, the Government has taken strong action with many comprehensive support solutions for the economy.
In the US market, the US Federal Reserve (FED) recently decided to cut interest rates and announced that it would continue to reduce interest rates until 2026. Dr. Can Van Luc - Chief Economist of BIDV, member of National Financial and Monetary Policy Advisory Council - commented that the FED's reversal of monetary policy is a good opportunity for Vietnam's exports and investment. "When the FED reduces interest rates, it will promote investment and consumption, increase demand for Vietnamese goods and services, thereby opening up more export opportunities," said Dr. Can Van Luc.
Analyzing this further, Dr. Can Van Luc said that the FED's interest rate reduction will contribute to downward trend of global interest rates as many central banks around the world have been and are "following" the FED to continue to reduce interest rates, thereby stimulating consumption, investment and production of businesses and people. This will help boost demand for Vietnam's exports in context of the high openness of Vietnamese economy and the US and Europe being Vietnam's leading export markets.
There are still many difficulties
However, according to Dr. Can Van Luc, foreign exchange rate has a significant impact on import and export activities. Currently, exchange rate has decreased, not increased as sharply as before, which often means that domestic currency is stronger and value of foreign currency decreases. But this is not always favorable for Vietnam's exports.
Because value of foreign currency abroad is still high, it will affect competitiveness of Vietnamese goods. Furthermore, Vietnam's exports depend heavily on FDI enterprises, so relationship between exchange rates and foreign trade needs to be carefully considered.
For footwear industry, a recovery trend is gradually emerging. However, according to Ms. Phan Thi Thanh Xuan, supply of raw materials is still not really strong, causing production costs to increase. Input and labor costs have both increased, while labor costs account for about 25% of product costs. If costs continue to increase, businesses will find it difficult to make a profit.
To compete, businesses must innovate technology. However, not all businesses have enough potential to invest in new technology, so they have to restructure and optimize costs to continue receiving orders.
According to economic expert Dinh Trong Thinh, export activities are a major driving force for economic growth. With estimated import-export growth rate in the past 8 months reaching 413 billion USD, target of 6% growth for the whole year is almost certain to be achieved.
To promote production and business activities as well as promote export activities to achieve goals set at the beginning of the year, Mr. Dinh Trong Thinh suggested that Industry and Trade sector must focus on implementing and effectively exploiting opportunities from trade agreements (FTAs); prioritize updating and grasping foreign market information; conditions, requirements and changes in export market for imported goods...From there, combine with industry associations and export production enterprises to get orders not only in the first quarter of 2025 but for the whole year.
On side of domestic production and export enterprises, they must stand on their own two feet. Not only producing quality products with Vietnamese brands to conquer international market but still dominating domestic market, promoting domestic consumption.
From perspective of management agency, Mr. Tran Thanh Hai said that, as the agency in charge of managing and operating import-export activities, Ministry of Industry and Trade has promptly identified difficulties and risks from export markets to advise and propose solutions to develop export markets. Vietnam's policy of international economic integration and diversification of export and import markets through negotiating and signing new-generation free trade agreements has opened up new market areas, reducing risk of being heavily dependent on a few markets.

Source: Vitic/ congthuong.vn