Forecast of trade exchange between Vietnam and leading trading partners
Friday, August 23,2024![](/weblocalfiles/cuc/economy/132018145747xnk.jpg)
AsemconnectVietnam - China and the US are still the two leading trading partners of Vietnam in the world.
According to the statistics figures from the General Department of Vietnam Customs, in the first 7 months of 2024, Vietnam's import-export turnover with China reached 112.2 billion USD, an increase of 25% over the same period of 2023.
In which, Vietnam's exports to China reached 32.6 billion USD, an increase of 5% over the same period of 2023; while Vietnam's imports from China reached 79.6 billion USD, up by 35.6% over the same period of 2023. Vietnam's trade deficit with China was reached 47 billion USD, up by 70% over the same period of 2023.
In terms of goods, Vietnam exports to China several items such as mobile phones, components, electronic equipment, rubber, agricultural products, seafood, etc. and imports from the Chinese market products such as machinery, equipment, raw materials for production in the garment industry, leather shoes, iron and steel, construction materials, etc., as well as daily necessities.
In terms of exports, agricultural products are the main item that Vietnam exports to China. In particular, durian is a "hot" item of Vietnam that is very popular in the Chinese market.
Meanwhile, according to the latest report of the General Statistics Office, in the first 7 months of 2024, the export turnover of goods to the US market reached 66.1 billion USD, up by 24.4% over the same period; while the import turnover from this market reached 8.6 billion USD, up by 6.2% over the same period last year.
The United States is currently the largest market for Vietnamese goods. At the same time, Vietnam is the leading country in the Southeast Asia (ASEAN) region in exports to the United States.
In the opposite direction, Vietnam is the 8th largest trading partner of the United States and the 6th largest import market of goods of the United States.
Vietnam exports to the United States many groups of goods such as machinery, equipment, tools, spare parts; computers, electronic products and components; textiles; phones of all kinds and components; wood and wood products; footwear, etc.
On the contrary, Vietnam imports many products from the US for production such as computers, electronic products and components; cotton; machinery, equipment, tools, spare parts; animal feed and raw materials, etc.
Vietnam-China trade exchange is forecast to reach 200 billion USD
With the figure of 112.2 billion USD in import-export turnover in the first 7 months of this year, on average, Vietnam-China import-export turnover reached about 16 billion USD per month. Thus, in the remaining 5 months, based on the strong improvement in trade in the first half of 2024, it is forecasted that Vietnam-China import-export turnover this year will likely approach the 200 billion USD mark. In the scenario of growth in the second half of the year being maintained as in the first half, it will reach 190 billion USD; if the recovery is better, it will reach, or even exceed, the 200 billion USD mark. This is positive because according to the annual rule, import and export will increase sharply at the end of the year due to the strong increase in import and export demand to serve consumption and the year-end holidays.
According to the plan, in September of 2024, the 2024 China International Trade Fair for Services will be held in Beijing (China) with the goal of promoting trade and service cooperation with Vietnamese enterprises. This is a comprehensive fair, focusing mainly on service industries, including energy, post and telecommunications; financial services; cultural and tourism services; educational services; trade services and supply chains... This is an important opportunity to increase import and export turnover between the two sides.
Vietnam - US trade exchange is forecast to exceed 100 billion USD
It is forecasted that in 2024, Vietnam - US trade exchange may exceed 100 billion USD and textiles and garments are one of Vietnam's key export items to the United States.
Mr. Do Ngoc Hung - Vietnam Trade Counselor in the United States said that there are many reasons for the continuous growth of trade between the two countries in recent times, even in the context of many fluctuations in the world situation. First of all, the relationship between the two countries is increasingly developing. In 2013, the two countries established a Comprehensive Partnership, and by 2023, the two countries officially upgraded to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.
In addition, Vietnamese goods are increasingly popular in the US market due to their continuously improved quality, updated trends and competitive prices. On the other hand, changes in the supply chain as well as the wave of investment shifts have contributed to enhancing the production capacity of Vietnamese enterprises. This also creates opportunities and room for Vietnamese goods to increase exports to the world in general and the US market in particular.
In order to boost exports to the United States, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has just organized a Trade and Investment Promotion Delegation to the United States to support Vietnamese localities and enterprises to promote trade cooperation activities and connect investment and business with the US market.
Mr. Vu Ba Phu - Director of the Trade Promotion Agency - Ministry of Industry and Trade emphasized that the upgrading of bilateral relations between Vietnam and the United States to the level of comprehensive strategic partnership on September 11, 2023 is extremely important, creating a solid foundation, helping the cooperation between the two countries to go deeper and more substantive on all pillars; in which the economic, trade and investment pillar continues to play a central role in promoting the relationship between the two countries.
The United States is currently Vietnam's second largest trading partner for many consecutive years and Vietnam's goods exported to the United States are very diverse and abundant. It is forecasted that the trade turnover between the two countries in 2024 will continue to maintain growth momentum and achieve many positive results. According to Mr. Vu Ba Phu, in the trend of international economic integration, trade and investment promotion organizations are increasingly strengthening their support activities for businesses while also promoting cooperation with each other in the field of trade and investment promotion. Strengthening international cooperation between trade and investment promotion organizations is inevitable and necessary.
During the working trip, Vietnamese enterprises carried out B2B trade connection activities directly with US enterprises, with an estimated number of more than 40 business transactions.
It is forecasted that in the coming time, exports to the US will continue to recover and grow as market demand increases and inventories decrease.
The biggest concern when exporting to the US is that this country is increasing the application of trade defense measures on imported goods.
To limit the risk of being investigated and having defense measures applied, Vietnamese enterprises need to increase their understanding of the law on trade defense regulations, create added value on exported products, and enterprises need to store export data to cooperate with the investigation agency when an incident occurs.
CK
Source: VITIC/congthuong.vn/trungtamwto.vn
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