The latest report from Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development shows that in July 2024, Vietnam exported 62,000 tonnes of coffee, bringing in 340 million USD. In the first 7 months of 2024, Vietnam exported 964,000 tonnes of coffee, with a turnover of 3.54 billion USD, down 13.8% in volume but up 30.9% in turnover compared to the same period last year. According to Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (VICOFA), Vietnam currently has only about 148,000 tonnes of coffee left to export in the remaining 2 months of the 2023/2024 crop year (from August to the end of September), until new crop year begins to harvest in October this year. Coffee exports are looking forward to new harvest season and it is forecasted that the whole year's coffee exports could set a record of 5.5 - 6 billion USD...
Vietnamese coffee is currently very "hot" because of scarce supply, and "big guys" like Germany, Italy and Japan are always "hunting" for this agricultural product. Because of low supply, Vietnamese coffee is very valuable. In early July, Hungary sought to buy Vietnamese coffee at a very high average price of more than 6,800 USD/ton or Israel bought at nearly 6,100 USD/ton.
Also according to Chairman of VICOFA, with markets such as Spain, Russia, the US, Indonesia, the Philippines, the Netherlands, China... the import price has increased by about 30% compared to last year. Therefore, these markets are all in the group of Vietnamese coffee export markets with a turnover of 100 million USD.
In derivatives market, according to the latest update from the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV) on the morning of August 5, at the end of the last trading week, Robusta coffee prices decreased for the third consecutive week, losing 1.74% compared to the reference, reaching 4,227 USD/ton. Meanwhile, Arabica coffee prices fluctuated and increased slightly by 0.11% compared to the previous week, reaching 5,081.65 USD/ton. Strong increase in USD/BRL exchange rate continued to be the main pressure on coffee prices. MXV analyzed that domestic Brazilian Real weakened, causing the USD/BRL exchange rate to increase by 1.27%, to the highest level in two and a half years. High exchange rate helped stimulate psychology of increasing coffee sales of Brazilian farmers due to earning more foreign currency. This led to expectations that supply in market would increase, thereby putting pressure on prices. However, concerns about shrinking coffee supplies in major producing countries are limiting decline in prices. In Brazil, the world's largest coffee exporter, coffee farmers are concerned about outlook for the 2024 crop. Most coffee growers expect this year's crop to be worse than in the previous survey, according to Coffee Trade Academy (CTA). Robusta coffee production is expected to fall by about 11% compared to last year, as coffee trees are more affected by hot, dry weather, affecting bean formation process. In addition, Cooxupe, Brazil's largest coffee producer and exporter, said that major coffee-producing regions recorded temperatures at least 2 degrees Celsius higher than normal and proportion of areas with water shortages reached nearly 50%. This could cause leaf fall and other pests, which could negatively affect the 2025 coffee crop.
Closing the last trading week, Robusta coffee prices fell for the third consecutive week, losing 1.74% compared to the reference. Meanwhile, Arabica coffee prices fluctuated and increased slightly by 0.11% compared to the previous week. Strong increase in USD/BRL exchange rate continued to be the main pressure on coffee prices.
Weakening of Brazilian Real led to an increase in USD/BRL exchange rate of 1.27%, reaching a two-and-a-half-year high. High exchange rate helped stimulate psychology of increasing coffee sales among Brazilian farmers due to earning more foreign currency. This led to expectations that market supply would increase, thereby putting pressure on prices.
However, coffee supply in major producing countries is facing concerns of a narrowing, somewhat limiting decline in prices. In Brazil, the world's largest coffee exporter, coffee farmers are concerned about outlook for the 2024 crop. Coffee Trade Academy (CTA) said most coffee growers expect this year's crop to be worse than in a previous survey. Robusta production is expected to fall by about 11% compared to last year, as coffee plants are more affected by hot, dry weather that affects the bean formation process.
In addition, Cooxupe, Brazil's largest coffee producer and exporter, said that major coffee-producing regions recorded temperatures at least 2 degrees Celsius higher than normal and nearly 50% of the area was water-stressed. This could prolong situation and cause leaf fall in crops and other pests, negatively affecting the 2025 coffee harvest.

Source: Vitic/ congthuong.vn