AsemconnectVietnam - The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has revised its economic growth forecast for developing Asia slightly up thanks to stronger domestic demand and export growth, while AMRO revises Vietnam’s 2024 growth forecast upward to 6.3%, highest in ASEAN, and UOB keeps Vietnam’s GDP growth at 6%.

ADB's forecast for Vietnam's 2024 economic growth
In the latest edition of Asian Development Outlook, which was released on July 17, the financial institution projected Vietnam’s economic growth at 6.2%, higher than the projection of 6% the bank made in April.
Growth in developing Asia and the Pacific is expected to be 5.0% this year, the ADB said, higher than the previous forecast of 4.9%. The region grew by 5.1% in 2023. The report noted that stronger domestic demand and exports, particularly electronic products, has become the driving force behind the region's rapid growth.
However, ADB still maintained its growth forecast of 4.9% for the Asian region in 2025, due to concerns about the impact of changes in the world, including uncertainty relating to election outcomes in major economies and geopolitical tensions.
The bank raised its economic growth forecast for the East Asia region in 2024 to 4.6%, compared to the previous projection of 4.5%, driven by a surge in exports of semiconductors and other electronic products thanks to the artificial intelligence (AI) boom.
The Southeast Asia region is projected to grow by 4.6% this year and 4.7% next year.
The ADB kept its 2024 and 2025 growth forecasts for China at 4.8% and 4.5% respectively, but noted a risk that a property slump there could deepen and lead to weaker growth prospects.
Official data released by National Bureau of Statistics of China on July 15 showed that the country's economy grew 4.7% in April-June from a year earlier, its slowest since the first quarter of 2023.
The ADB expects regional inflation to slow to 2.9% in 2024 from 3.3% last year, before nudging up to 3.0% in 2025.
AMRO's forecast for Vietnam's 2024 economic growth
The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) revised Vietnam’s economic growth forecast upward to 6.3% for 2024 in its latest update released on July 16.
The growth rate is 0.3 percentage points higher than the 6% forecast in April and is the highest among ASEAN countries for 2024.
The Singapore-based organisation maintained its forecast for Vietnam’s GDP growth in 2025 at 6.5%.
In its flagship report, AMRO revised the growth of most ASEAN countries downward for 2024, with the Philippines projected to have the second-highest growth rate at 6.1%, followed by Cambodia at 5.6% and Indonesia at 5.2%.
The report by AMRO Chief Economist Hoe Ee Khor noted that Vietnam was hit hard last year by the downturn in external demand, but is expected to benefit from a turnaround in external demand this year.
“This is going to be a very strong growth year for Vietnam. The country is one of those highly open economies that benefit greatly from trade,” he said.
However, Khor also pointed out some weaknesses in the economy due to uneven growth across sectors.
“In the real estate sector, for instance, there is a struggle from a downturn. There is scope for the authorities to implement targeted measures to help revive the real estate sector and also support the vulnerable group of small and medium enterprises (SMEs), many of which are still lagging behind,” he said.
AMRO staff forecast Vietnam’s inflation to rise by 3.8% this year, up from 3.6% in its April update.
Vietnam's economy was reported to have grown by 6.93% in the second quarter and 6.42% in the first six months of 2024. The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 4.08% in the first half of 2024 compared to the same period last year, according to the General Statistics Office.
In its latest forecast for the country’s GDP growth, the Ministry of Planning and Investment estimated that Vietnam's economy might surpass forecasts to grow by 7% this year. In one scenario, growth could hit 6.5%, matching the National Assembly's target. In a more optimistic scenario, growth could reach 7%, with higher rates in the last two quarters.
UOB's forecast for Vietnam's 2024 economic growth
Singapore-based United Overseas Bank (UOB) has maintained its forecast for Vietnam’s economic growth at 6% for the whole year on the back of the recovery of both domestic and foreign demand as well as production sector in the first half.
At the launch of the UBO Business Outlook Study 2024 held in Ho Chi Minh City, he highlighted that motives for the economic growth came from the recovery of the demand for electronic products, stable growth in China and the region as well as central banks’ loose monetary policies, elaborating the economy expanded 6.42% in the first half as compared to 3.42% recorded in the same time last year.
The production sector grew for the fifth consecutive quarter, at 10%, while the services industry recorded expansion for the 11th consecutive quarter, he said, adding the two contributed 29% and 45%, respectively to the GDP growth of 6.42%. During January-June, export and import grew 14% and 16.6%, with a trade surplus of 11.3 billion USD.
Total retail sales were stable during the six-month span, backed by the tourism sector which welcomed 8.8 million tourist arrivals as compared to only 5.6 million in the same time last year.
Regarding foreign investment attraction, UOB specialists held that foreign firms have relished a positive prospect for the Vietnamese economy in the coming time, adding they funneled 15.2 billion USD in foreign direct investment (FDI) into the country in the first half, up 13.1% year-on-year while the disbursed amount in the period was 10.88 billion USD.
The UOB experts have been upbeat about Vietnam’s FDI attraction as foreign investors have seen Vietnam as an important investment destination for mid- and long-terms amidst the global restructuring of supply chains. Besides, the increase of both disbursed and registered FDI capital will bolster domestic activities in the coming quarters, comprising construction and employment, which affirms foreign enterprises’ confidence in and commitment to Vietnam in the context of the current deglobalisation and supply chain transition.
Suan Teck Kin also pointed his figure to several challenges that Vietnam should keep close tabs on to maintain its strong growth in the second half, including conflicts across the globe and inflation pressure.
He suggested the country expand and diversify its markets and supply to prevent the impacts of the supply chain and transport disruptions.
Last month, the bank projected the economic growth rate of Vietnam at 6% for the whole 2024 on increasing chip-making demand, the recovery of Chinese and regional economies, as well as ongoing supply shifts.
It said Vietnam’s economic recovery momentum will maintain in the second half of the year, given the economy to edge up to 6% in the second quarter from 5.66% in the first one.
CK
Source: VITIC/ Vietnamplus.vn