AsemconnectVietnam - In the context of a world economic recovery trend, our country's economic growth in the first 6 months of 2024 continued to prosper with an increase of 6.42%.

This result was higher than the upper target growth rate set in Resolution 01/NQ-CP of the Government, and is considered a positive sign for the growth target for the whole year of 2024.
Growth exceeded all forecasts
According to the data on the socio-economic situation in the second quarter and the first 6 months of 2024 from the General Statistics Office, GDP growth in the second quarter has nearly reached the 7% threshold, reaching 6.93%, bringing 6-month GDP growth to 6.42%. As compared to the period 2020-2024, these were very positive growth levels. Specifically, the growth rate of the second quarter of this year was only lower than the growth rate of 7.83% in the second quarter of 2022, much higher than the 0.34% increase in the second quarter of 2020, as well as the 4.25% increase of the second quarter of last year. In 2021, GDP growth in the second quarter was 6.55%, still lower than the figure in the second quarter of this year.
According to the economic growth forecast report for the second quarter of the Global Economic and Market Research Department, United Overseas Bank Limited (UOB-Vietnam), the economic recovery momentum will be maintained in second half of 2024. While external risks continue to weigh on the economic outlook (including conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East), Vietnam's outlook is bolstered by a recovery in chip demand semiconductors, steady growth in China and the region, as well as ongoing supply chain shifts. Based on the data released to date, UOB Bank maintains Vietnam's growth forecast at 6% for 2024.
Thanks to that, the growth rate in the first 6 months of the year was only lower than the growth rate of 6.58% in the first 6 months of 2022 in the period 2020-2024. Specifically, the GDP growth rate in the first 6 months of the year compared to the same period last year for the years 2020-2024 was 1.74%, 5.71%, 6.58%, 3.84% and 6.42% respectively. According to the economic growth scenario set out in Resolution No. 01/NQ-CP of the Government, for the economy to grow by 6-6.5% this year, the first quarter growth must be by 5.2-5.6%, 2nd quarter growth must be 5.8-6.2%, 6 months growth rate must be 5.5-6%, 3rd quarter growth rate must be 6.2-6.7%, 9 months growth rate must be 5.7-6.2%, and the 4th quarter growth must be 6.5-7%. From the above figures, it can be affirmed that the economy has achieved a positive growth rate, exceeding the growth scenario proposed by Resolution No. 01.
Notably, the manufacturing and processing industry (accounting for more than 74% of the added value of the entire industry) continued to grow with a clearer trend, with an increase of 8.5% in the first 6 months of the year over the same period last year (the figure of the same period last year decreased by 1.8%). Good import and export activities showed the positive recovery of the economy, with an estimated trade surplus of 11.63 billion USD. Regarding investment attraction, the total foreign investment capital registered in Vietnam in the first 6 months of the year reached nearly 15.2 billion USD, an increase of 13.1% over the same period of 2023. There were 1,538 new projects granted an investment registration certificate, with a total registered capital of nearly 9.54 billion USD, an increase of 18.9% in the number of projects and an increase of 46.9% in capital compared to the same period last year. Regarding implemented capital, in the first 6 months of the year, disbursed capital reached about 10.84 billion USD, an increase of 8.2% over the same period last year. This is also the highest amount of realized foreign direct investment in the first 6 months of the year in the past 5 years.
Evaluating the results of the first 6 months of the year and forecasting the second half of the year, economist Dr. Nguyen Minh Phong said that the economic recovery is taking place stably and quite evenly. Accordingly, in the first half of 2024, although the global economy and trade showed more positive signs, representing a favorable opportunity for development, the world situation continued to be complicated and unpredictable. Vietnam's economy in 2023 and the first half of 2024 still maintained positive growth momentum, with GDP growth rate among the leading in the region and the world. The recovery has been stable and quite uniform across regions, localities, as well as economic sectors. The improvement is clearly recorded in many economic indicators, notably exports, tourism, FDI attraction, employment, workers' income and international economic position, etc.
Update growth scenario
Commenting on the domestic economic situation in the last 6 months of the year, Director of the National Accounts System Department (under the General Statistics Office) Nguyen Thi Mai Hanh said that the agriculture, forestry and fisheries sector in the last 6 months of the year will have more favorable when the weather enters the rainy season, drought and saltwater intrusion are no longer a concern for agricultural producers.
With the recovery of the world economy, industry in the first 6 months of the year had remarkable growth and is a premise for economic growth in the last 6 months of the year. The results of the survey on business trends in the processing and manufacturing industry in the third quarter also showed that up to 40.7% of businesses rated it more positively than in the second quarter, 42.2% of businesses thought that maintaining stability was a key factor and a good signal for the recovery of the processing and manufacturing industry in the coming months. In addition, the service industry has the opportunity to develop in the last 6 months of the year when the third quarter continues to be the peak tourist season. Good exploitation of tourism activities will strongly spread to the market service industry.
Domestic consumption is still an important factor promoting economic growth with the advantage of a consumer market of more than 100 million people. Some factors stimulating domestic consumption in the last 6 months of the year include: VAT reduction policy of 2% until the end of the year for some groups of goods and services; the policy of increasing the base salary from July 1, 2024 will bring many meanings to the team of officials, civil servants, and public employees, contributing to improving living standards, increasing consumption and labor productivity, contributing to GDP growth in the last 6 months of the year.
Also according to Ms. Nguyen Thi Mai Hanh, Vietnam's international trade is tending to increase strongly because the world demand gradually improves and domestic production recovers. Vietnam's exports are forecast to continue to grow well in the last months of the year, especially with key products such as computer electronics and components, machinery and spare parts, and some agricultural and forestry products and seafood, etc. Public investment continues to be promoted and accelerated and there are many solutions to effectively use public investment capital in the last 6 months of the year to complete goals, to remove difficulties, lead, promote, attract investment from other economic sectors, create jobs, contribute to enhancing social security as well as create an infrastructure foundation to serve rapid and sustainable development in the long term.
However, the representative of the General Statistics Office also emphasized that to achieve the upper growth rate of about 6.5%, there are still many difficulties and challenges, and it is necessary to continue implementing drastic solutions to maintain stability of the economic - political - social situation; ensure macroeconomic balances; good control of inflation; promote efficiency and flexibility in fiscal and monetary policies; drastically and synchronously implement the solutions proposed in the Government's Resolutions and the Prime Minister's Directive on economic development in the last 6 months of the year.
Proposing solutions for growth in the second half of the year, economist Dr. Nguyen Minh Phong said that, in the spirit of Directive No. 12/CT-TTg of the Prime Minister on key tasks and solutions to promote socio-economic development in the remaining period of the year, ministries, agencies and localities need to drastically and effectively implement key tasks and solutions. Specifically, proactively monitor and respond closely to developments in international, regional and domestic situations, especially in monetary, fiscal, trade and investment policies, to ensure market stability, commodity prices, especially gasoline, oil, essential goods, housing and food; prioritize growth associated with maintaining macroeconomic stability, controlling inflation, ensuring major balances of the economy, etc. along with healthy, safe and effective development of financial markets, securities, corporate bonds; develop the domestic market, expand and diversify export markets, diversify supply chains, promote exports, especially for large, potential markets; do a good job of forecasting, proactively grasp the situation, promptly advise and effectively handle situations, avoid being passive or surprised.
CK
Source: VITIC/ haiquanonline.com.vn