According to data from Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers, in the first 5 months of this year, Vietnamese enterprises exported shrimp to 103 markets, bringing in 1.3 billion USD, up 7% over the same period last year. Slight increase in export turnover compared to the same period is a positive signal but shrimp industry continues to face many challenges when the world economic situation has not shown signs of recovery, inflation is still high and the war has not ended.
Vietnamese shrimp fear fierce competition in Chinese market
Among export markets, China and Hong Kong (China) are leading with a turnover of 260 million USD, up 21% over the same period. Exports to this market gradually decreased from January to April. In May, there were signs of a sharp decrease. The main reason is that Vietnam's shrimp prices are higher than those of rival suppliers.
In following months until the end of the year, Ecuador, India and Indonesia will focus more on Chinese market due to high US tariffs, so Vietnamese shrimp exports to China will be more difficult in terms of price, especially whole black tiger shrimp and whole whiteleg shrimp.
On other hand, according to National Chamber of Aquaculture of Ecuador (CNA), China has lifted the ban on 9 Ecuadorian shrimp exporters due to discovery of excessive sulfite residues. These nine companies can now resume their export activities as long as they provide laboratory analysis ensuring compliance along with regular HC certificates for each batch. China’s ban has caused Ecuador’s shrimp export market share in Chinese market to fall from 64% in the first quarter of 2023 to 50% in the first quarter of 2024. China’s lifting of the ban will also impact Vietnam’s shrimp exports to this market.
The US market will increase purchases to serve the year-end festival demand
The US market ranked second in Vietnam's shrimp export turnover in the first 5 months of this year with a value of 229 million USD, up 1% over the same period. Shrimp exports to the US only increased sharply in January, while in February, April and May they decreased sharply.
In this market, inflation is still high, housing costs, gasoline, etc. are high. In addition, shipping costs have increased sharply by 40% since May due to the war in the Middle East and China has collected empty containers to prepare for exporting to the US before new tax deadline. Vietnamese shrimp also has to compete strongly on price with Ecuadorian, Indian and Indonesian shrimp in the US market.
Demand for Vietnamese shrimp imports from the US is expected to increase slightly in the third quarter of this year when importers increase purchases to serve the year-end festival demand.
Inventory declines, shrimp exports to EU market expected to recover slightly
In the first 5 months of this year, Vietnam's shrimp exports to the EU market reached 165 million USD, up 8% over the same period. Shrimp exports to the EU, after decreasing in February and March, recovered and increased again in April and May.
Shrimp consumption in the EU market in the first quarter of the year was very slow because this market was greatly affected by the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war, Euro depreciated against USD, shipping costs increased suddenly by 60% due to having to go around, China collected empty containers to export to the US.
In addition, Vietnamese shrimp will have to compete more strongly with rival suppliers in this market such as India and Ecuador because these two suppliers are facing difficulties with high taxes in the US market, so they will reduce prices to increase exports to the EU.
From now until the end of the year, demand for shrimp imports in the EU market is expected to increase slightly. Notably, demand for imported value-added goods in this market will grow better than traditional goods because inventories have decreased significantly.
Shrimp exports to Japanese market will recover slightly
In the first 5 months of this year, Vietnam's shrimp exports to Japanese market reached 183 million USD, down 4% over the same period.
Although importers' inventories are not large, the Yen's devaluation since the beginning of the year has not shown signs of recovery and high inflation has caused consumers to spend economically.
Shrimp exports to Japan have decreased continuously from February to May, but rate of decrease is not as strong as other markets. Japan is still considered a market with relatively stable import demand compared to other markets.
Vietnam's value-added goods in the Japanese market still maintain a better competitive advantage than other sources such as India and Ecuador.
Import demand of the Japanese market is expected to increase slightly from September to serve the year-end demand.
Demand in the Korean market is expected to be stable
In the first 5 months of this year, Vietnam's shrimp exports to Korea reached 124 million USD, down 9% over the same period. Slow consumption demand, high inflation, currency devaluation and rising interest rates have prevented Vietnam's shrimp exports to Korea from recovering.
Although inventories have decreased, importers do not dare to buy much because inflation is still high, the currency is still devalued and they are preparing for the main crop season, fearing that shrimp prices will drop.
From now until the end of the year, import demand of this market is expected to be stable.

Source: Vitic/ congthuong.vn